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The question of whether automation causes unemployment to rise in the long run is addressed in detail here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relationship_of_automa

by jarrett 15y ago

The question of whether automation causes unemployment to rise in the long run is addressed in detail here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relationship_of_automation_to_unemployment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relationship_of_automation_to_u... TL;DNR for the Wikipedia article: People have worried about machines putting humans out of work for centuries. But the unemployment rate has not risen steadily over the same period even as technology has constantly grown. The long term trend (measured since the beginning of the industrial revolution) has been that new jobs are created as old ones are destroyed. But, nobody knows if this trend will continue indefinitely. There may be some threshold at which technology is so advanced, companies no longer come up with profitable ways to use humans. To take an extreme example, imagine if we had robots that were smarter, stronger, and in every way more capable than humans. One can imagine a lot of different outcomes in that case. Widespread, permanent unemployment is one of the less favorable possible outcomes. This doesn't mean the Terminator has to be invented before that technological threshold is reached. Some say we've already reached it, but it's way too early to say with certainty. In short, technology has improved most lives without harming overall employment throughout the last few centuries, but that doesn't mean the same logic will always hold. The Wikipedia article is a really good read with a lot more detail.

kalid 15y ago
I'm probably missing something, but I don't see how driving the marginal cost of human necessities (food, shelter, clothing, health care, education) to zero is anything but a good thing. Is the world worse off because we have innumerable, self-replicating automated "robots" (plants) which, for free, convert carbon dioxide back into oxygen? Should we prefer a universe where humans must do this themselves? Now what if rice harvested itself and walked to your door every morning? Would that be a bad thing? My thinking: if we have robot farmers, delivery drivers, tailors, doctors, etc. we've reached the Star Trek universe where the replicator eliminated all scarcity (maybe not with a molecule-by-molecule copies, but a robot which can build anything we need cheaply). My hidden premise is that people do "work" (labor they don't enjoy) to ensure their survival. There are other issues like status, prestige, satisfaction, etc. but I'm talking about the basic fear of unemployment ("unemployment is bad because you could starve and die"). If the survival cost is 0, then there should be no fear of unemployment. You'd have 100% leisure time for art, study, etc.
- sanderjd 15y ago
  I think what you are missing is the in between phase where scarcity still exists, but the best way to produce scarce outputs does not involve humans, besides those who own or run the scarce-output-production entities. This seems to me to either produce societies with wild inequities between a very few producers and a very many do-nothings, or the types of socialist utopias that we appear to be really horrible at as humans. The everyone-has-a-magical-everything-maker phase, I agree, that sounds pretty solid.
  - killerdark 15y ago
    Kurt Vonnegut, Player Piano
  - Alex3917 15y ago
    "This seems to me to either produce societies with wild inequities between a very few producers and a very many do-nothings" I would imagine that as the costs of production approach zero, our real life economy will start looking a lot more like the Second Life economy. That is, where everyone is a boutique producer slash experience seeker.
  - kalid 15y ago
    Good point -- thinking out loud, it seems to me that automation would just drop the price of goods. Imagine Moore's law applied to food and transportation -- wouldn't grocery stores and fedex have to lower their prices to match competitors? Suddenly food becomes cheaper and cheaper, until you can buy a lifetime supply of rice for $5 (unfathomable today, but you can buy a "lifetime supply" of textual data storage for probably the same price). I mean, there could be collusion and cartels to restrict supply (diamonds), but something as important as food production wouldn't be kept restricted long (food could become a utility).
- jarrett 15y ago
  I think you're operating from the assumption that the fruits of automation will somehow find their way to the population at large. That won't necessarily happen. It's quite possible that the advantage will go entirely to those who own and manage the businesses that automate their operations. (And indeed, some would say this is happening now.) If automation reaches its endpoint, where no human labor is necessary, how does capitalism continue to function? What value can members of the public offer in exchange for all the automatically-produced goods and services? I think if that were to happen, we'd see some kind of major social reorganization. Who knows how that would look? Maybe it would be utopian, and then again maybe it would be some kind of luddite, burn-the-robots-and-hang-the-engineers facism. Who knows.
totalc 15y ago
What a great article! I have similar ideas to those thinkers (Brain and Ford), but I've been inspired mostly by reading way too much science fiction! Feels great to learn I'm not just simply crazy.
Unseelie 15y ago
Well, to take another example, we don't use horses for labor anymore...Some part of the labor force -has- been replaced.
- mannicken 15y ago
  Just out of curiosity, what happened to all the horses that were left without jobs?
aaronblohowiak 15y ago
Robots arent doing most of the work americans used to -- people oversees are.
- virmundi 15y ago
  Actually this is false. As the graph in the article shows American manufacturing output is much higher now than it was in the past. This is due to automation and a smarter, more empowered work force. While American jobs for simple, brute force manufacturing were outsourced, high end manufacturing for complicated things like Tractors and earth moving equipment are now essentially power assisted with automation backing or managing human output.
DanielRibeiro 15y ago
These reminded me of structural unemployment[1] effects I've learnt on history classes, that happened during the first industrial revolution. However, PG published an essay[2] from Knuth that mentioned: ... because their aim is to create machines that write programs better than we can, given only the problem specification. In this sense we should continually be striving to transform every art into a science: in the process, we advance the art. Which seems to be pretty much corroborated by your TL; DNR [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_unemployment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_unemployment [2] http://www.paulgraham.com/knuth.html http://www.paulgraham.com/knuth.html
dy 15y ago
> Widespread, permanent unemployment is one of the less favorable possible outcomes. Wondering why you think this is a less favorable outcome - presumably if there were robots that could make all our whims come true it would be closer to a utopian society. The value of "employment" for itself seems nonsensical - the ability to procure things that people want seem to be the better barometer of a society's wealth.

by jarrett 15y ago

kalid 15y ago

I'm probably missing something, but I don't see how driving the marginal cost of human necessities (food, shelter, clothing, health care, education) to zero is anything but a good thing. Is the world worse off because we have innumerable, self-replicating automated "robots" (plants) which, for free, convert carbon dioxide back into oxygen? Should we prefer a universe where humans must do this themselves? Now what if rice harvested itself and walked to your door every morning? Would that be a bad thing? My thinking: if we have robot farmers, delivery drivers, tailors, doctors, etc. we've reached the Star Trek universe where the replicator eliminated all scarcity (maybe not with a molecule-by-molecule copies, but a robot which can build anything we need cheaply). My hidden premise is that people do "work" (labor they don't enjoy) to ensure their survival. There are other issues like status, prestige, satisfaction, etc. but I'm talking about the basic fear of unemployment ("unemployment is bad because you could starve and die"). If the survival cost is 0, then there should be no fear of unemployment. You'd have 100% leisure time for art, study, etc.

sanderjd 15y ago
I think what you are missing is the in between phase where scarcity still exists, but the best way to produce scarce outputs does not involve humans, besides those who own or run the scarce-output-production entities. This seems to me to either produce societies with wild inequities between a very few producers and a very many do-nothings, or the types of socialist utopias that we appear to be really horrible at as humans. The everyone-has-a-magical-everything-maker phase, I agree, that sounds pretty solid.
- killerdark 15y ago
  Kurt Vonnegut, Player Piano
- Alex3917 15y ago
  "This seems to me to either produce societies with wild inequities between a very few producers and a very many do-nothings" I would imagine that as the costs of production approach zero, our real life economy will start looking a lot more like the Second Life economy. That is, where everyone is a boutique producer slash experience seeker.
- kalid 15y ago
  Good point -- thinking out loud, it seems to me that automation would just drop the price of goods. Imagine Moore's law applied to food and transportation -- wouldn't grocery stores and fedex have to lower their prices to match competitors? Suddenly food becomes cheaper and cheaper, until you can buy a lifetime supply of rice for $5 (unfathomable today, but you can buy a "lifetime supply" of textual data storage for probably the same price). I mean, there could be collusion and cartels to restrict supply (diamonds), but something as important as food production wouldn't be kept restricted long (food could become a utility).
jarrett 15y ago
I think you're operating from the assumption that the fruits of automation will somehow find their way to the population at large. That won't necessarily happen. It's quite possible that the advantage will go entirely to those who own and manage the businesses that automate their operations. (And indeed, some would say this is happening now.) If automation reaches its endpoint, where no human labor is necessary, how does capitalism continue to function? What value can members of the public offer in exchange for all the automatically-produced goods and services? I think if that were to happen, we'd see some kind of major social reorganization. Who knows how that would look? Maybe it would be utopian, and then again maybe it would be some kind of luddite, burn-the-robots-and-hang-the-engineers facism. Who knows.

totalc 15y ago

What a great article! I have similar ideas to those thinkers (Brain and Ford), but I've been inspired mostly by reading way too much science fiction! Feels great to learn I'm not just simply crazy.

Unseelie 15y ago

Well, to take another example, we don't use horses for labor anymore...Some part of the labor force -has- been replaced.

mannicken 15y ago
Just out of curiosity, what happened to all the horses that were left without jobs?

aaronblohowiak 15y ago

Robots arent doing most of the work americans used to -- people oversees are.

virmundi 15y ago
Actually this is false. As the graph in the article shows American manufacturing output is much higher now than it was in the past. This is due to automation and a smarter, more empowered work force. While American jobs for simple, brute force manufacturing were outsourced, high end manufacturing for complicated things like Tractors and earth moving equipment are now essentially power assisted with automation backing or managing human output.

DanielRibeiro 15y ago

These reminded me of structural unemployment[1] effects I've learnt on history classes, that happened during the first industrial revolution. However, PG published an essay[2] from Knuth that mentioned: ... because their aim is to create machines that write programs better than we can, given only the problem specification. In this sense we should continually be striving to transform every art into a science: in the process, we advance the art. Which seems to be pretty much corroborated by your TL; DNR [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_unemployment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_unemployment [2] http://www.paulgraham.com/knuth.html http://www.paulgraham.com/knuth.html

dy 15y ago

> Widespread, permanent unemployment is one of the less favorable possible outcomes. Wondering why you think this is a less favorable outcome - presumably if there were robots that could make all our whims come true it would be closer to a utopian society. The value of "employment" for itself seems nonsensical - the ability to procure things that people want seem to be the better barometer of a society's wealth.