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I would agree that case 1 constitutes a potentially interesting use of block-chain. 2 and 3 assume the value of BTC, which I would not take as a given.

by skohan 5y ago

dkshdkjshdk 5y ago
Regarding point 2, what's wrong with assuming that 1 BTC is worth 1 BTC now and forever? If I'm not trading asset A for asset B, then it's hardly "speculation". If it makes it any better, I can lend BTC and ask to get returns in USDC (which should be worth as much as 1 USD, if you trust Coinbase). Am I still speculating? Regarding point 3, where is the speculation, exactly? If, at any point, the BTC I left as collateral goes below a certain level of collateralization (let's say 200% of the value of the borrowed asset), I'll just get liquidated: whoever lent me the USD will get their USD back, and I will lose my collateral (or a part of it, at least), if I fail to keep the value of my collateral over the threshold. I think perhaps we have a very different idea of what "speculation" is supposed to be... Either way, I guess you accept that there are use-cases that are otherwise not being provided by more traditional tech/institutions. Good.
- skohan 5y ago
  > what's wrong with assuming that 1 BTC is worth 1 BTC now and forever? Because if 1 BTC = 0 USD, and has no real-world utility outside of speculation, there is no compelling reason to try to acquire more BTC.
  - dkshdkjshdk 5y ago
    > Because if 1 BTC = 0 USD... A big assumption here. I can also hypothesize that 1 USD = 0 EUR, at some point in the future, and, thus, holding or buying USD is pure speculation and there is no compelling reason to try to acquire more USD. Under this logic, I shouldn't ever buy or hold anything (forex, stocks, etc.), lest its market value goes to zero. Also, thanks for ignoring the rest of my point: What if I choose to get my returns in some asset that is pegged to USD (e.g. DAI, USDC), am I still speculating on the value of BTC?
    - skohan 5y ago
      For 1 USD = 0 EUR to become a reality, we would have to imagine a massive geopolitical shift has taken place. For 1 BTC = 0 USD, all you need is one government, which has been the victim or ransomware attacks, to regulate BTC out of existence.
      - dkshdkjshdk 5y ago
        > For 1 USD = 0 EUR to become a reality, we would have to imagine a massive geopolitical shift has taken place. Which is a possibility (the same way that 1 BTC = 0 USD is also a possibility; just a very unlikely possibility). > For 1 BTC = 0 USD, all you need is one government, which has been the victim or ransomware attacks, to regulate BTC out of existence. Unfortunately, reality proves you wrong. Here [0] is an example of one government regulating BTC out of existence (or trying to)... but I'm sure you can find others. What's the price of BTC today? (hint: not zero) I think there's not much point in continuing this discussion, since you seem pretty convinced that the ultimate value of BTC is zero (even though you admit that there probably are legitimate use-cases for such things). If you already pre-decided that it is the case (and you are totally within your right to speculate on the value of BTC), nothing I can say will change it. Also, thanks for ignoring the rest of my point: What if I choose to get my returns in some asset that is pegged to USD (e.g. DAI, USDC), am I still speculating on the value of BTC? [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/india-plans-cryptocurrency-ban-will-penalize-miners-and-traders.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/india-plans-cryptocurrency-b...
intev 5y ago
Since you seem to be arguing in good faith I'll engage; at which point will you accept that the value of BTC is > $0? It's coming up on a decade of showing seemingly limitless upside with the bottom constantly rising. The tulip mania everyone loves to cite lasted about 3 years. This is going on for more than 3x. At what point would you consider you are maybe wrong? Personally speaking, I was on the other side of this until about 3 years ago. I first learned about crypto in 2011. At one point I realized I was not looking at the facts unfolding right in front of me. I was just telling myself "look everyone are idiots, and everyone is going to crash and burn because of this. This makes no sense." Then I realized smarter and smarter people were getting in and more and more people were getting convinced and either I benefit from this or I become the person on the sidelines left behind.
- skohan 5y ago
  There are indeed people willing to trade USD for BTC, so there is a market price for BTC. However, there are three major risks in my opinion which I think could make BTC worthless in the next 10 years: 1) There seems to be very credible evidence that Tether and other stablecoins are essentially fraud, and Tether makes up a massive portion of the BTC market cap 2) Ransomware is becoming increasingly prevalent, and has managed to compromise large institutions - it's not difficult to imagine regulatory action banning cryptocurrency as a result of this 3) Similarly, BTC is viewed by many as an unnecessary driver of fossil fuel consumption. Carbon regulation will necessarily get stronger in the next decades, and BTC may face harsh regulatory challenges because of this
  - dkshdkjshdk 5y ago
    > in my opinion > I think could Who is speculating about the value of things here? Wasn't speculation supposed to be bad? None of the things you mentioned support the hypothesis that the value of BTC is literally zero (not 0.00000000000001 USD, but literally zero). > 1) There seems to be very credible evidence that Tether and other stablecoins are essentially fraud, and Tether makes up a massive portion of the BTC market cap I have a hard time even parsing this ("Tether makes up a massive portion of the BTC market cap"), and it sounds more like an appeal to emotion than an actual argument. Please explain in which ways are DAI and USDC "essentially fraud". Perhaps you should contact US authorities, and complain about the fraudulent Coinbase, if you really believe that to be the case (and if you're not just engaging in unfounded speculation).

I would agree that case 1 constitutes a potentially interesting use of block-chain. 2 and 3 assume the value of BTC, which I would not take as a given.

by skohan 5y ago

I would agree that case 1 constitutes a potentially interesting use of block-chain. 2 and 3 assume the value of BTC, which I would not take as a given.

dkshdkjshdk 5y ago

Regarding point 2, what's wrong with assuming that 1 BTC is worth 1 BTC now and forever? If I'm not trading asset A for asset B, then it's hardly "speculation". If it makes it any better, I can lend BTC and ask to get returns in USDC (which should be worth as much as 1 USD, if you trust Coinbase). Am I still speculating? Regarding point 3, where is the speculation, exactly? If, at any point, the BTC I left as collateral goes below a certain level of collateralization (let's say 200% of the value of the borrowed asset), I'll just get liquidated: whoever lent me the USD will get their USD back, and I will lose my collateral (or a part of it, at least), if I fail to keep the value of my collateral over the threshold. I think perhaps we have a very different idea of what "speculation" is supposed to be... Either way, I guess you accept that there are use-cases that are otherwise not being provided by more traditional tech/institutions. Good.

skohan 5y ago
> what's wrong with assuming that 1 BTC is worth 1 BTC now and forever? Because if 1 BTC = 0 USD, and has no real-world utility outside of speculation, there is no compelling reason to try to acquire more BTC.
- dkshdkjshdk 5y ago
  > Because if 1 BTC = 0 USD... A big assumption here. I can also hypothesize that 1 USD = 0 EUR, at some point in the future, and, thus, holding or buying USD is pure speculation and there is no compelling reason to try to acquire more USD. Under this logic, I shouldn't ever buy or hold anything (forex, stocks, etc.), lest its market value goes to zero. Also, thanks for ignoring the rest of my point: What if I choose to get my returns in some asset that is pegged to USD (e.g. DAI, USDC), am I still speculating on the value of BTC?
  - skohan 5y ago
    For 1 USD = 0 EUR to become a reality, we would have to imagine a massive geopolitical shift has taken place. For 1 BTC = 0 USD, all you need is one government, which has been the victim or ransomware attacks, to regulate BTC out of existence.
    - dkshdkjshdk 5y ago
      > For 1 USD = 0 EUR to become a reality, we would have to imagine a massive geopolitical shift has taken place. Which is a possibility (the same way that 1 BTC = 0 USD is also a possibility; just a very unlikely possibility). > For 1 BTC = 0 USD, all you need is one government, which has been the victim or ransomware attacks, to regulate BTC out of existence. Unfortunately, reality proves you wrong. Here [0] is an example of one government regulating BTC out of existence (or trying to)... but I'm sure you can find others. What's the price of BTC today? (hint: not zero) I think there's not much point in continuing this discussion, since you seem pretty convinced that the ultimate value of BTC is zero (even though you admit that there probably are legitimate use-cases for such things). If you already pre-decided that it is the case (and you are totally within your right to speculate on the value of BTC), nothing I can say will change it. Also, thanks for ignoring the rest of my point: What if I choose to get my returns in some asset that is pegged to USD (e.g. DAI, USDC), am I still speculating on the value of BTC? [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/india-plans-cryptocurrency-ban-will-penalize-miners-and-traders.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/india-plans-cryptocurrency-b...

intev 5y ago

Since you seem to be arguing in good faith I'll engage; at which point will you accept that the value of BTC is > $0? It's coming up on a decade of showing seemingly limitless upside with the bottom constantly rising. The tulip mania everyone loves to cite lasted about 3 years. This is going on for more than 3x. At what point would you consider you are maybe wrong? Personally speaking, I was on the other side of this until about 3 years ago. I first learned about crypto in 2011. At one point I realized I was not looking at the facts unfolding right in front of me. I was just telling myself "look everyone are idiots, and everyone is going to crash and burn because of this. This makes no sense." Then I realized smarter and smarter people were getting in and more and more people were getting convinced and either I benefit from this or I become the person on the sidelines left behind.

skohan 5y ago
There are indeed people willing to trade USD for BTC, so there is a market price for BTC. However, there are three major risks in my opinion which I think could make BTC worthless in the next 10 years: 1) There seems to be very credible evidence that Tether and other stablecoins are essentially fraud, and Tether makes up a massive portion of the BTC market cap 2) Ransomware is becoming increasingly prevalent, and has managed to compromise large institutions - it's not difficult to imagine regulatory action banning cryptocurrency as a result of this 3) Similarly, BTC is viewed by many as an unnecessary driver of fossil fuel consumption. Carbon regulation will necessarily get stronger in the next decades, and BTC may face harsh regulatory challenges because of this
- dkshdkjshdk 5y ago
  > in my opinion > I think could Who is speculating about the value of things here? Wasn't speculation supposed to be bad? None of the things you mentioned support the hypothesis that the value of BTC is literally zero (not 0.00000000000001 USD, but literally zero). > 1) There seems to be very credible evidence that Tether and other stablecoins are essentially fraud, and Tether makes up a massive portion of the BTC market cap I have a hard time even parsing this ("Tether makes up a massive portion of the BTC market cap"), and it sounds more like an appeal to emotion than an actual argument. Please explain in which ways are DAI and USDC "essentially fraud". Perhaps you should contact US authorities, and complain about the fraudulent Coinbase, if you really believe that to be the case (and if you're not just engaging in unfounded speculation).