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I can teach a human to drive in < 1 day. An AI… so far 10+ years. I agree there is crazy progress and investment, but it’s also not entirely certain how far we

I can teach a human to drive in < 1 day. An AI… so far 10+ years. I agree there is crazy progress and investment, but it’s also not entirely certain how far we can push AI.

dane-pgp 5y ago
How long would it take you to teach a human to beat the world champion at Chess or Go?
- onethought 5y ago
  I’m not saying AI isn’t impressive I’m saying we don’t know the limit… is your point that chess mastery is a sign of superintelligence and driving is not?
  - dane-pgp 5y ago
    I agree we don't know the limit, but I think we can safely say that a machine can be at least as capable as the human mind, since we could in principle reverse engineer that. I would also say that the upper limit must also include the level of intelligence of a whole society working together towards something, because none of us are as smart as all of us. What's more relevant, though, is that we don't know what the progress curve looks like that passes through "superhuman ability at multiplying numbers" then "at playing chess" then "at playing go" then "at writing novels" then "at developing AI". If, on average, there are a few decades between each of those steps, and these are roughly linear steps, then we might not need to worry much for another generation, but if the progress curve is exponential then it might already be too late.
    - onethought 5y ago
      Actually we’ve only proved close system AI. But not open system (I.e reality). It’s definitely not exponential growth… it’s more like logarithmic.
samatman 5y ago
< 1 day? Impressive, it takes me 14 years!
- onethought 5y ago
  Pretty sure even motorcycles (which are harder to drive than cars) have licensing programs that are 1 - 2 days before they trust you drive by yourself. I haven't heard of a 14 year driving program. If you mean you gain experience and get better every day. Agree, but you stop nearly slamming into a wall pretty quickly (minutes even). AI driving unfortunately can't make the same claim.
  - echelon 5y ago
    The 14 year claim is from gestation to adolescence. You have to learn balance (not to mention how to walk to the car/motorcycle). You have to learn about other cars. Signs. Reading. There's so much a human has learned by age 14 that we're just taking for granted here.
    - onethought 5y ago
      But if you are going to compare apples to all the fruits. Then AI is even further away… not closer: it can’t balance, reason, generalised learning… that’s weird comparison.

I can teach a human to drive in < 1 day. An AI… so far 10+ years. I agree there is crazy progress and investment, but it’s also not entirely certain how far we can push AI.

dane-pgp 5y ago

How long would it take you to teach a human to beat the world champion at Chess or Go?

onethought 5y ago
I’m not saying AI isn’t impressive I’m saying we don’t know the limit… is your point that chess mastery is a sign of superintelligence and driving is not?
- dane-pgp 5y ago
  I agree we don't know the limit, but I think we can safely say that a machine can be at least as capable as the human mind, since we could in principle reverse engineer that. I would also say that the upper limit must also include the level of intelligence of a whole society working together towards something, because none of us are as smart as all of us. What's more relevant, though, is that we don't know what the progress curve looks like that passes through "superhuman ability at multiplying numbers" then "at playing chess" then "at playing go" then "at writing novels" then "at developing AI". If, on average, there are a few decades between each of those steps, and these are roughly linear steps, then we might not need to worry much for another generation, but if the progress curve is exponential then it might already be too late.
  - onethought 5y ago
    Actually we’ve only proved close system AI. But not open system (I.e reality). It’s definitely not exponential growth… it’s more like logarithmic.

samatman 5y ago

< 1 day? Impressive, it takes me 14 years!

onethought 5y ago
Pretty sure even motorcycles (which are harder to drive than cars) have licensing programs that are 1 - 2 days before they trust you drive by yourself. I haven't heard of a 14 year driving program. If you mean you gain experience and get better every day. Agree, but you stop nearly slamming into a wall pretty quickly (minutes even). AI driving unfortunately can't make the same claim.
- echelon 5y ago
  The 14 year claim is from gestation to adolescence. You have to learn balance (not to mention how to walk to the car/motorcycle). You have to learn about other cars. Signs. Reading. There's so much a human has learned by age 14 that we're just taking for granted here.
  - onethought 5y ago
    But if you are going to compare apples to all the fruits. Then AI is even further away… not closer: it can’t balance, reason, generalised learning… that’s weird comparison.