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Nice simulator. Did nothing. Costs within a budget. Zero days of school lost. Only 150k dead for 15M infections (~1%).
by helge9210 5y ago
Nice simulator.
Did nothing. Costs within a budget. Zero days of school lost. Only 150k dead for 15M infections (~1%).
- SonicScrub 5y ago150k dead in the entirety of the small nation of Czechia. Yikes, that's a lot. I would not use the modifier "only" to describe that death toll. That's 1.4% of the nation's population. For context, that's about 43% of the total WW2 deaths of that nation done in a fraction of the time. I hope the "costs within budget" was worth that.
- rsj_hn 5y agoPlease cite a source for 150K, as that's pretty outlandish. Official government data is 30,311 dead here: https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19 https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19 The czech republic, in general, has below average respiratory outcomes due to higher than average levels of smoking and historically high levels of air pollution under communism (they burned brown coal), as well as an older population (1% of the population experiences acute respiratory infections each year). But all of these factors are improving, with cleaner air, declining smoking rates, etc.
- pedrosorio 5y ago> Please cite a source for 150K Read the parent of the comment you responded to.
- SonicScrub 5y agoI think you're very confused on the context of my comment. The link that this thread goes to is a simulator that mimics controlling COVID spread in the Czech Republic based on player-controlled government initiatives. I'm replying to someone who said they got 150k deaths in the game. My comment has nothing to do with real world COVID numbers in the Czech Republic.
- gus_massa 5y agoGo to https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=table&zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-06-30..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... and sort by total death. In the first position is Peru with ~6000 death/million. After that there are a bunch of countries with ~3000 death/million including Czechia. And then the number goes down. Czechia has ~11000000 habitants, so 150K/11M is like ~13000 death/million that is the double of the current country with more death/million and like four time bigger than the other countries.
- anoncake 5y agoNo, that's not a lot. It's only 1%. Much less than the cost of lockdowns. Obviously less than 150% of the population gets infected in real life.
- barbazoo 5y ago> No, that's not a lot. It's only 1%. Much less than the cost of lockdowns. Apart from the fact that I can't fathom how you could say that 1% of an entire country's population is "not a lot", do you have a source for how many people died as "cost of lockdowns"? I see this being regurgitated a lot but I doubt that more people died due to lockdowns/restrictions than from Covid19 itself.
- anoncake 5y agoEveryone lost more than one year of their life. That alone outweights any benefit.
- barbazoo 5y agoWhat do you mean by "lost"? As far as I know we still lived, albeit in more or less restricted circumstances. I would suggest taking a step back and reevaluating if the past year really has been worse than dying.
- anoncake 5y agoIt absolutely has.
- barbazoo 5y agoDying is objectively worse. Don't get me wrong but just in case you're not in a good place, please find somebody to talk to about this. Friends, family, your family doctor, a mental health hotline, anyone. Heck, contact me if you feel like you're out of options, base64 encoded email aGFja2VybmV3c2NvbnRhY3RAZmFzdG1haWwuY29tCg==
- shusaku 5y agoAlso if you use the do nothing strategy, you end up with an economic cost of 400B+. It’s really bad bang for your buck…
- whoomp12342 5y ago15M infections means 15M people of potentially life altering conditions. It could be worse than death
- TheGigaChad 5y agoYou are already brain damaged, so no need to worry about that condition because of covid.
- anoncake 5y agoThere is still no evidence for that.
- chickenpotpie 5y agoThings are dangerous until proven safe. If you’re on a hike, you don’t eat strange berries under the assumption they’re safe.
- anoncake 5y agoThat will take a while because there is no such thing as proof outside mathematics. But the fact that the percentage of people who suffer permanent damage from Covid is neglible and there would have been plenty of time to detect it is as close as it gets.
- logicchains 5y ago> Things are dangerous until proven safe. If you’re on a hike, you don’t eat strange berries under the assumption they’re safe. Yet this doesn't apply to the unknown long-term effects of the mRNA vaccines?
- raphlinus 5y agoIt does. Rational people evaluate the known risks and take a reasonable guess what the unknown risks might be. Conspiracy people gonna conspiracy.
- 5y ago
- pedrosorio 5y agoYou get a little scatterplot at the end of the simulation, your result as the bottom right (the "do nothing option") kills 1.4% of the population. https://imgur.com/nK3wwjv https://imgur.com/nK3wwjv I managed to keep costs somewhat low with a total of 2300 deaths.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- afterburner 5y agoThe population of Czechia is 10 million, so that's 1.5%.