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Unfortunate that it doesn't allow you to get back to zero. Various countries have managed to do it, including China with hard lock downs.

by soperj 5y ago

kube-system 5y ago
China is not at zero even today. Literally today they imposed a lockdown in Ruili due to an outbreak.
- shalmanese 5y ago
  a) it was yesterday. b) getting back to zero does not mean staying at zero. China has had long stretches of time with zero reported cases of local transmission, punctuated by brief outbreaks like the current one.
  - Izkata 5y ago
    On the Worldometers chart, China has never had any stretch with 0 cases (I'm mousing over the Total Cases graph and it never noticeably stays the same number; there may be a handful of single days mixed in there that aren't obvious like this). It's their deaths that stopped increasing - only 4 new deaths in over a year.
    - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
      Worldometers is including travelers who get infected outside of China, but who are diagnosed as having SARS-CoV-2 while undergoing the mandatory quarantine to enter China. That's different from people who get infected in China. There have been long stretches of time with zero local cases in China. Just to illustrate the difference, here's a typical daily report from China's main public health authority:[1] > BEIJING, June 28 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese mainland on Sunday reported 21 imported COVID-19 cases but no new locally transmitted cases, the National Health Commission said in its daily report on Monday. The "imported cases" are among travelers undergoing quarantine. There have been a few outbreaks with local transmission, but so far, all of them have been successfully contained before they spread very far. Right now, for example, there's an outbreak in a town on the border with Myanmar. The town itself has been locked down and everyone in it (270k people) has undergone PCR testing, and will be tested a second time over the coming days. So far, about two dozen infected people have been identified. However, outside of this town, there are currently zero local cases in China. 1. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/28/c_1310031605.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/28/c_1310031605.htm
  - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
    And this outbreak currently only affects a single city on the border with Myanmar. The other 1.4 billion people are still going about their daily lives.
- soperj 5y ago
  How does that negate anything that I said?
  - genericpenguin 5y ago
    It doesn't. I was also disappointed by this. I'm in Australia and we kept our numbers low by locking down hard and early and distinguishing between community transmission and infection via incoming travellers. We did often hit long periods of no community transmission and only had outbreaks due to breaches in protocol or sloppiness by some people's part.
the_doctah 5y ago
Its shocking to me that anyone believes numbers reported by China. They reported stopping at 80k around the time America started lockdown, and the total number is around 90k today. Absurd lies.
- DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
  Lots of people on HN (and in the tech industry more broadly) live in China or have family in China. You can ask anyone you know who lives in China or who has family/friends in China what the situation has been like over the last year. Public spaces like restaurants and theaters have been open, nobody is coming down with CoVID-19, and the hospitals aren't overflowing. This would simply be impossible if there were community spread of the virus inside China. With open restaurants, theaters, etc., the virus would spread like wildfire in China's dense cities, and everyone would know about it. The strict lockdowns in early 2020 worked to bring cases very near zero, and they were followed up with mass testing campaigns (for example, nearly all 11 million residents of Wuhan were tested in June 2020) to find the last few infections.[1,2] The common reaction among many people, to deny that China eliminated SARS-CoV-2 within its borders, simply isn't tenable. 1. "Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w 2. "Comprehensive large-scale nucleic acid–testing strategies support China’s sustained containment of COVID-19": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01308-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01308-7

Unfortunate that it doesn't allow you to get back to zero. Various countries have managed to do it, including China with hard lock downs.

by soperj 5y ago

Unfortunate that it doesn't allow you to get back to zero. Various countries have managed to do it, including China with hard lock downs.

kube-system 5y ago

China is not at zero even today. Literally today they imposed a lockdown in Ruili due to an outbreak.

shalmanese 5y ago
a) it was yesterday. b) getting back to zero does not mean staying at zero. China has had long stretches of time with zero reported cases of local transmission, punctuated by brief outbreaks like the current one.
- Izkata 5y ago
  On the Worldometers chart, China has never had any stretch with 0 cases (I'm mousing over the Total Cases graph and it never noticeably stays the same number; there may be a handful of single days mixed in there that aren't obvious like this). It's their deaths that stopped increasing - only 4 new deaths in over a year.
  - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
    Worldometers is including travelers who get infected outside of China, but who are diagnosed as having SARS-CoV-2 while undergoing the mandatory quarantine to enter China. That's different from people who get infected in China. There have been long stretches of time with zero local cases in China. Just to illustrate the difference, here's a typical daily report from China's main public health authority:[1] > BEIJING, June 28 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese mainland on Sunday reported 21 imported COVID-19 cases but no new locally transmitted cases, the National Health Commission said in its daily report on Monday. The "imported cases" are among travelers undergoing quarantine. There have been a few outbreaks with local transmission, but so far, all of them have been successfully contained before they spread very far. Right now, for example, there's an outbreak in a town on the border with Myanmar. The town itself has been locked down and everyone in it (270k people) has undergone PCR testing, and will be tested a second time over the coming days. So far, about two dozen infected people have been identified. However, outside of this town, there are currently zero local cases in China. 1. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/28/c_1310031605.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/28/c_1310031605.htm
- DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
  And this outbreak currently only affects a single city on the border with Myanmar. The other 1.4 billion people are still going about their daily lives.
soperj 5y ago
How does that negate anything that I said?
- genericpenguin 5y ago
  It doesn't. I was also disappointed by this. I'm in Australia and we kept our numbers low by locking down hard and early and distinguishing between community transmission and infection via incoming travellers. We did often hit long periods of no community transmission and only had outbreaks due to breaches in protocol or sloppiness by some people's part.

the_doctah 5y ago

Its shocking to me that anyone believes numbers reported by China. They reported stopping at 80k around the time America started lockdown, and the total number is around 90k today. Absurd lies.

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
Lots of people on HN (and in the tech industry more broadly) live in China or have family in China. You can ask anyone you know who lives in China or who has family/friends in China what the situation has been like over the last year. Public spaces like restaurants and theaters have been open, nobody is coming down with CoVID-19, and the hospitals aren't overflowing. This would simply be impossible if there were community spread of the virus inside China. With open restaurants, theaters, etc., the virus would spread like wildfire in China's dense cities, and everyone would know about it. The strict lockdowns in early 2020 worked to bring cases very near zero, and they were followed up with mass testing campaigns (for example, nearly all 11 million residents of Wuhan were tested in June 2020) to find the last few infections.[1,2] The common reaction among many people, to deny that China eliminated SARS-CoV-2 within its borders, simply isn't tenable. 1. "Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w 2. "Comprehensive large-scale nucleic acid–testing strategies support China’s sustained containment of COVID-19": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01308-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01308-7