3 ms·
Here's something that's been bugging me. The SIR (and SEIRS) model that this game is based on seem to me to have a flaw. Now obviously I'm not an epidemiologis
by regularfry 5y ago
Here's something that's been bugging me. The SIR (and SEIRS) model that this game is based on seem to me to have a flaw. Now obviously I'm not an epidemiologist, and I'm sure that epidemiologists have a good handle on this, I just don't know what it is.
The problem is this: if you assume an exponential decay, you're saying there's no point after infection at which the probability of transmission is zero. Probability of infection has a half-life in SIR. But for a virus like covid, we know that's not true: if you're infected, give it six weeks and you won't be infectious any more, one way or another. If you replace an exponential decay with a finite transmission lifetime, you do end up with different epidemic curves: they have steeper fall-off, for instance.
What's the reasoning here?