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If you take this articles as "Very wealthy man with the resources to do so moves family to where he perceives the focal point of future growth and opportunity w

If you take this articles as "Very wealthy man with the resources to do so moves family to where he perceives the focal point of future growth and opportunity will be," it's a rather uninteresting story. However, if you take this as "American investor perceives future opportunity to be greatest in China, enough so to relocate family"...then it's a bit more interesting. Mostly, because I can be fairly confident in saying that he's wrong. Dead wrong. Or maybe he's just narrow-sighted? Perhaps his vision is two crowded by the blinders of American investment activity to see that China's prominence in the world economy is directly tied America's prominence in the world economy. Perhaps he's ignored the impending Chinese demographic disaster because it doesn't look too different from the one America is now just starting to face. Either way, this article reinforces for me the notion that to be rich doesn't require you to be the smartest kid on the block, just the gutsiest (with a good dose of good luck mixed in). You see, if it were up to me, I'd be moving my family to Brazil or Turkey. They have youthful populations. Their economies are well rounded and fairly diversified. Most importantly, though, they are going to be future hubs of their respective regions. Is there any doubt that Brazil will be the future superpower of South America? With Turkey's geographical, political, and demographic position, how can it not be the future nexus of the "East-meets-West-meets-Middle-East" economy? China...you can have China. I'd even take India over China...but, China is fashionable. And somehow I doubt that Newsweek would write the article about the wealthy family that relocated to Brazil or Turkey.

zhivota 15y ago
Jim Rogers and his family moved to Singapore, not China.
- makthrow 15y ago
  and Singapore is the hub of Southeast Asia.
- rmc 15y ago
  Looks like he's trying to get his kids fleunt in Mandarin Chinese, so essentially he's betting on China.
- jballanc 15y ago
  Yes, I wrote my comment in a bit of a hurry (as evidenced by the ridiculous typo I made). I could be trite and say that "Singapore is where a capitalist moves when that capitalist really wants to move to China." But off-handed insults aside, he is still definitely betting on a period of Chinese ascendency.
gbog 15y ago
Care to explain what's wrong with China? ,
- poutine 15y ago
  Too many old people and the Chinese are not wealthy enough to sustain them as they age. Demographic collapse is all but inevitable in the 2020's.
gbog 15y ago
Care to explain what's wrong with China? ,
danohuiginn 15y ago
"to see that China's prominence in the world economy is directly tied America's prominence in the world economy." What makes you think that? For current Chinese trade the US is important, but not overwhelmingly so (http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html). In the future -- China is building links with Africa, with South America, with basically everywhere in the world. Whatever happens to the US, China will be a superpower for the next few decades.
- jballanc 15y ago
  The problem is that China is just now building those links. Brazil and Turkey have their links already in place (and fairly well cemented in history). That said, I do see China (or some agglomeration of China + US) being a world power for the next generation – probably at least for the majority of Jim Rogers daughter's lifetime – but their trajectory doesn't look much better than the US's...it's just a bit more delayed. (Though, China's impending demographic crisis, depending on how bad it gets, could really bring all that down much sooner.)
rdtsc 15y ago
> I'd be moving my family to Brazil or Turkey. I can see Brazil and heard others mention it as well. But why Turkey? Just curious.
- jballanc 15y ago
  The E.U. needs Turkey because Turkey has a young population (and therefore a young workforce) and someone is going to have to pay the taxes that will be needed to support all those European pensioners. The US needs Turkey for it's strategic geography that allows the airbase at Incirik to be a forward base for any operations near China, Russia, or really anywhere else in Asia. Russia needs to be friendly with Turkey because Turkey controls the only alternate pipeways to get gas and oil from Asia to Europe. Turkey also controls the Bosporus, which is one of the only ways for cargo ships to reach Russia. Also, read up on the canal that Turkey has just announced plans to build. (See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/27/istanbul-new-bosphorus-canal http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/27/istanbul-new-bos...) If they go through with it, this new shipping channel will allow them to bypass a number of limitations placed by international agreements on shipping through the Bosporus. The middle east has historical ties with Turkey. Also, Turkey has been really smart about sensing the impending power shift in the region from Israel to the emerging Arab societies, and so they have allowed their relations with Israel to atrophy a bit (but not too much) while playing the part of the champion for persecuted populations in the middle east. See, for example, how they're allowing Syrian refugees to settle in Turkey for an indefinite period, and how Angelina Jolie thanked the Turkish gov't for their help (if you can't trust a celebrity, who can you trust?): http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=angelina-jolie-arrives-in-southern-turkey-2011-06-17 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=angelina-jolie-arri... Iran needs Turkey because it's one of the last countries that they can still bank with, though they are skirting the line there: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=us-officals-warned-turkish-banks-on-iran-milliyet-says-2010-09-06 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=us-officals-warned-... China needs Turkey because it's still the quickest way to get to Europe without going through Russia, and they are even looking to construct a railway based on that premise: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turks-chinese-to-build-high-speed-train-lines-across-turkey-2010-10-15 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turks-chinese-to-bu... Turkey has a society that is rapidly modernizing, but unlike many of their European brethren (and the US), they still have a vibrant manufacturing sector. For example, most of the cars driven in Europe are manufactured in Turkey. So, yeah...Turkey is definitely one to watch (along with the rest of the CIVETS countries: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIVETS http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIVETS).

zhivota 15y ago

Jim Rogers and his family moved to Singapore, not China.

makthrow 15y ago
and Singapore is the hub of Southeast Asia.
rmc 15y ago
Looks like he's trying to get his kids fleunt in Mandarin Chinese, so essentially he's betting on China.
jballanc 15y ago
Yes, I wrote my comment in a bit of a hurry (as evidenced by the ridiculous typo I made). I could be trite and say that "Singapore is where a capitalist moves when that capitalist really wants to move to China." But off-handed insults aside, he is still definitely betting on a period of Chinese ascendency.

gbog 15y ago

Care to explain what's wrong with China? ,

poutine 15y ago
Too many old people and the Chinese are not wealthy enough to sustain them as they age. Demographic collapse is all but inevitable in the 2020's.

gbog 15y ago

Care to explain what's wrong with China? ,

danohuiginn 15y ago

"to see that China's prominence in the world economy is directly tied America's prominence in the world economy." What makes you think that? For current Chinese trade the US is important, but not overwhelmingly so (http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html). In the future -- China is building links with Africa, with South America, with basically everywhere in the world. Whatever happens to the US, China will be a superpower for the next few decades.

jballanc 15y ago
The problem is that China is just now building those links. Brazil and Turkey have their links already in place (and fairly well cemented in history). That said, I do see China (or some agglomeration of China + US) being a world power for the next generation – probably at least for the majority of Jim Rogers daughter's lifetime – but their trajectory doesn't look much better than the US's...it's just a bit more delayed. (Though, China's impending demographic crisis, depending on how bad it gets, could really bring all that down much sooner.)

rdtsc 15y ago

> I'd be moving my family to Brazil or Turkey. I can see Brazil and heard others mention it as well. But why Turkey? Just curious.

jballanc 15y ago
The E.U. needs Turkey because Turkey has a young population (and therefore a young workforce) and someone is going to have to pay the taxes that will be needed to support all those European pensioners. The US needs Turkey for it's strategic geography that allows the airbase at Incirik to be a forward base for any operations near China, Russia, or really anywhere else in Asia. Russia needs to be friendly with Turkey because Turkey controls the only alternate pipeways to get gas and oil from Asia to Europe. Turkey also controls the Bosporus, which is one of the only ways for cargo ships to reach Russia. Also, read up on the canal that Turkey has just announced plans to build. (See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/27/istanbul-new-bosphorus-canal http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/27/istanbul-new-bos...) If they go through with it, this new shipping channel will allow them to bypass a number of limitations placed by international agreements on shipping through the Bosporus. The middle east has historical ties with Turkey. Also, Turkey has been really smart about sensing the impending power shift in the region from Israel to the emerging Arab societies, and so they have allowed their relations with Israel to atrophy a bit (but not too much) while playing the part of the champion for persecuted populations in the middle east. See, for example, how they're allowing Syrian refugees to settle in Turkey for an indefinite period, and how Angelina Jolie thanked the Turkish gov't for their help (if you can't trust a celebrity, who can you trust?): http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=angelina-jolie-arrives-in-southern-turkey-2011-06-17 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=angelina-jolie-arri... Iran needs Turkey because it's one of the last countries that they can still bank with, though they are skirting the line there: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=us-officals-warned-turkish-banks-on-iran-milliyet-says-2010-09-06 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=us-officals-warned-... China needs Turkey because it's still the quickest way to get to Europe without going through Russia, and they are even looking to construct a railway based on that premise: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turks-chinese-to-build-high-speed-train-lines-across-turkey-2010-10-15 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turks-chinese-to-bu... Turkey has a society that is rapidly modernizing, but unlike many of their European brethren (and the US), they still have a vibrant manufacturing sector. For example, most of the cars driven in Europe are manufactured in Turkey. So, yeah...Turkey is definitely one to watch (along with the rest of the CIVETS countries: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIVETS http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIVETS).