3 ms·
It’s not a 7% chance of hospitalization. It’s the normal hospitalization rate times 0.07. If you’re 40 years old, that means your chance of hospitalization is a
by chroma 5y ago
It’s not a 7% chance of hospitalization. It’s the normal hospitalization rate times 0.07. If you’re 40 years old, that means your chance of hospitalization is around 0.05%, or 50 in 100,000.[1] The risk is even lower if you’re healthy (no obesity, diabetes, heart disease, etc).
1. I calculated this by taking the cumulative hospitalization rate (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...) and assuming that 20% of Americans have gotten covid, then taking 7% of that. It’s not perfect but it’s within a factor of 2 of the real risk.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y agoAnd for the flu it is about ~40 in 100,000 also: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-minority-groups.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-m...
- asah 5y agoY'all are assuming these variants follow the same statistics. It's too soon to know and they don't have to. Indeed, the latest reports are that most hospitalizations are coming from young people, which I'm hoping is due to lack of vaccination and not some new characteristic of these variant (s). Sorry if this sounds like fear-mongering, it's just caution.
- votepaunchy 5y agoYou are assuming that the 2021 flu variants are anything like what we have seen before. And influenza mutates much more readily that Sars-cov-2. We just don’t know.