3 ms·

Hmmm, 7% requiring hospitalization = not odds I want to take.

by asah 5y ago

usaar333 5y ago
It's not 7% requiring hospitalization - it's that only 7% who would have been hospitalized had they developed an infection are hospitalized if they catch covid (relative, not absolute odds) For the record, ~2% of flu symptomatic illnesses result in hospitalization (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html), so unless you are terrified every winter, this probably shouldn't be considered that high of a risk.
- asah 5y ago
  Yes obviously, I'm not an idiot. The point is that people round up anything above 90 as being 100, when actually low 90s is pretty bad. Arguably you did this too: 2% vs 7% don't round down to the same thing: one is 3.5 times higher.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
chroma 5y ago
It’s not a 7% chance of hospitalization. It’s the normal hospitalization rate times 0.07. If you’re 40 years old, that means your chance of hospitalization is around 0.05%, or 50 in 100,000.[1] The risk is even lower if you’re healthy (no obesity, diabetes, heart disease, etc). 1. I calculated this by taking the cumulative hospitalization rate (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...) and assuming that 20% of Americans have gotten covid, then taking 7% of that. It’s not perfect but it’s within a factor of 2 of the real risk.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  And for the flu it is about ~40 in 100,000 also: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-minority-groups.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-m...
  - asah 5y ago
    Y'all are assuming these variants follow the same statistics. It's too soon to know and they don't have to. Indeed, the latest reports are that most hospitalizations are coming from young people, which I'm hoping is due to lack of vaccination and not some new characteristic of these variant (s). Sorry if this sounds like fear-mongering, it's just caution.
    - votepaunchy 5y ago
      You are assuming that the 2021 flu variants are anything like what we have seen before. And influenza mutates much more readily that Sars-cov-2. We just don’t know.
Arnt 5y ago
What odds do you want to take?

Hmmm, 7% requiring hospitalization = not odds I want to take.

by asah 5y ago

Hmmm, 7% requiring hospitalization = not odds I want to take.

It's not 7% requiring hospitalization - it's that only 7% who would have been hospitalized had they developed an infection are hospitalized if they catch covid (relative, not absolute odds) For the record, ~2% of flu symptomatic illnesses result in hospitalization (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html), so unless you are terrified every winter, this probably shouldn't be considered that high of a risk.

asah 5y ago
Yes obviously, I'm not an idiot. The point is that people round up anything above 90 as being 100, when actually low 90s is pretty bad. Arguably you did this too: 2% vs 7% don't round down to the same thing: one is 3.5 times higher.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

chroma 5y ago

It’s not a 7% chance of hospitalization. It’s the normal hospitalization rate times 0.07. If you’re 40 years old, that means your chance of hospitalization is around 0.05%, or 50 in 100,000.[1] The risk is even lower if you’re healthy (no obesity, diabetes, heart disease, etc). 1. I calculated this by taking the cumulative hospitalization rate (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...) and assuming that 20% of Americans have gotten covid, then taking 7% of that. It’s not perfect but it’s within a factor of 2 of the real risk.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
And for the flu it is about ~40 in 100,000 also: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-minority-groups.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-m...
- asah 5y ago
  Y'all are assuming these variants follow the same statistics. It's too soon to know and they don't have to. Indeed, the latest reports are that most hospitalizations are coming from young people, which I'm hoping is due to lack of vaccination and not some new characteristic of these variant (s). Sorry if this sounds like fear-mongering, it's just caution.
  - votepaunchy 5y ago
    You are assuming that the 2021 flu variants are anything like what we have seen before. And influenza mutates much more readily that Sars-cov-2. We just don’t know.

Arnt 5y ago

What odds do you want to take?