4 ms·

Vaccine is only 64% effective against Delta variant.

by loceng 5y ago

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Importantly, it's still 93% effective in preventing hospitalizations [1]. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/06/health/israel-pfizer-efficacy-delta-variant-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/06/health/israel-pfizer-efficacy...
- asah 5y ago
  Hmmm, 7% requiring hospitalization = not odds I want to take.
  - usaar333 5y ago
    It's not 7% requiring hospitalization - it's that only 7% who would have been hospitalized had they developed an infection are hospitalized if they catch covid (relative, not absolute odds) For the record, ~2% of flu symptomatic illnesses result in hospitalization (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html), so unless you are terrified every winter, this probably shouldn't be considered that high of a risk.
    - asah 5y ago
      Yes obviously, I'm not an idiot. The point is that people round up anything above 90 as being 100, when actually low 90s is pretty bad. Arguably you did this too: 2% vs 7% don't round down to the same thing: one is 3.5 times higher.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - chroma 5y ago
    It’s not a 7% chance of hospitalization. It’s the normal hospitalization rate times 0.07. If you’re 40 years old, that means your chance of hospitalization is around 0.05%, or 50 in 100,000.[1] The risk is even lower if you’re healthy (no obesity, diabetes, heart disease, etc). 1. I calculated this by taking the cumulative hospitalization rate (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...) and assuming that 20% of Americans have gotten covid, then taking 7% of that. It’s not perfect but it’s within a factor of 2 of the real risk.
    - onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
      And for the flu it is about ~40 in 100,000 also: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-minority-groups.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-m...
      - asah 5y ago
        Y'all are assuming these variants follow the same statistics. It's too soon to know and they don't have to. Indeed, the latest reports are that most hospitalizations are coming from young people, which I'm hoping is due to lack of vaccination and not some new characteristic of these variant (s). Sorry if this sounds like fear-mongering, it's just caution.
        votepaunchy 5y ago
        You are assuming that the 2021 flu variants are anything like what we have seen before. And influenza mutates much more readily that Sars-cov-2. We just don’t know.
  - Arnt 5y ago
    What odds do you want to take?
- TranquilMarmot 5y ago
  Not sure how important that stat is considering it still means that vaccinated folks are able to spread it. If 36% of vaccinated people get it, they probably aren't wearing masks and are going to spread it very easily to people who may not be vaccinated. Not everybody is unvaccinated by choice, especially depending on the area you live in. Just seems a little premature to open everything back up with a more infectious strain going around.
  - BurningFrog 5y ago
    Getting the virus is not at all the same thing when vaccinated as when not. Even when it rises to the level of noticeability, it is much milder for the vaccinated.
whoisburbansky 5y ago
Which vaccine?
- dragontamer 5y ago
  They're referencing a new Israeli study on Pfizer's vaccine. Since Pfizer (and likely Moderna) are less effective vs Delta, it means we need to push our vaccination rates higher to protect our unvaccinated population (who are largely immunocompromised: such as cancer patients).

Vaccine is only 64% effective against Delta variant.

by loceng 5y ago

Vaccine is only 64% effective against Delta variant.

Importantly, it's still 93% effective in preventing hospitalizations [1]. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/06/health/israel-pfizer-efficacy-delta-variant-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/06/health/israel-pfizer-efficacy...

asah 5y ago
Hmmm, 7% requiring hospitalization = not odds I want to take.
- usaar333 5y ago
  It's not 7% requiring hospitalization - it's that only 7% who would have been hospitalized had they developed an infection are hospitalized if they catch covid (relative, not absolute odds) For the record, ~2% of flu symptomatic illnesses result in hospitalization (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html), so unless you are terrified every winter, this probably shouldn't be considered that high of a risk.
  - asah 5y ago
    Yes obviously, I'm not an idiot. The point is that people round up anything above 90 as being 100, when actually low 90s is pretty bad. Arguably you did this too: 2% vs 7% don't round down to the same thing: one is 3.5 times higher.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- chroma 5y ago
  It’s not a 7% chance of hospitalization. It’s the normal hospitalization rate times 0.07. If you’re 40 years old, that means your chance of hospitalization is around 0.05%, or 50 in 100,000.[1] The risk is even lower if you’re healthy (no obesity, diabetes, heart disease, etc). 1. I calculated this by taking the cumulative hospitalization rate (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...) and assuming that 20% of Americans have gotten covid, then taking 7% of that. It’s not perfect but it’s within a factor of 2 of the real risk.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
    And for the flu it is about ~40 in 100,000 also: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-minority-groups.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/disparities-racial-ethnic-m...
    - asah 5y ago
      Y'all are assuming these variants follow the same statistics. It's too soon to know and they don't have to. Indeed, the latest reports are that most hospitalizations are coming from young people, which I'm hoping is due to lack of vaccination and not some new characteristic of these variant (s). Sorry if this sounds like fear-mongering, it's just caution.
      - votepaunchy 5y ago
        You are assuming that the 2021 flu variants are anything like what we have seen before. And influenza mutates much more readily that Sars-cov-2. We just don’t know.
- Arnt 5y ago
  What odds do you want to take?
TranquilMarmot 5y ago
Not sure how important that stat is considering it still means that vaccinated folks are able to spread it. If 36% of vaccinated people get it, they probably aren't wearing masks and are going to spread it very easily to people who may not be vaccinated. Not everybody is unvaccinated by choice, especially depending on the area you live in. Just seems a little premature to open everything back up with a more infectious strain going around.
- BurningFrog 5y ago
  Getting the virus is not at all the same thing when vaccinated as when not. Even when it rises to the level of noticeability, it is much milder for the vaccinated.

whoisburbansky 5y ago

Which vaccine?

dragontamer 5y ago
They're referencing a new Israeli study on Pfizer's vaccine. Since Pfizer (and likely Moderna) are less effective vs Delta, it means we need to push our vaccination rates higher to protect our unvaccinated population (who are largely immunocompromised: such as cancer patients).