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Thanks for taking the time to elaborate. I mostly agree with both this and your GP comment, and that's just it: I don't think we can at this point imagine how t

by senko 5y ago

Thanks for taking the time to elaborate. I mostly agree with both this and your GP comment, and that's just it: I don't think we can at this point imagine how the future (tech) will look or what will be possible. Any attempt is at best speculation and at worst a fantasy. As you said, extrapolation from current trends quickly gets us into unbelievable territory. I'm definitely not a religious person, but I do have faith they (future humans) will figure something out, if there's any incentive (survival, profit, ... fun?) to do so - unless our species goes extint first. That's also why I do believe things SpaceX and others are doing are important. Not because we'll have a colony on Mars in a few decades (I don't think we will). But if we don't even start trying, it'll be awfully long before we get anywhere.

javajosh 5y ago
I like politely disagreeing conversations - they are more productive! So, thanks. I get your gist, but I don't agree. The analogy I think of in this case is ancient Greece - let's say Athens. Imagine a precocious boy who discovers he can walk on the ocean floor by fitting an inverted bowl over his head and breathing the trapped air there for a time. He continues to innovate, and attaches a hose. He makes discoveries! Thrilled by his success, he pitches the idea of making an underwater map of the entire Mediterranean! The benefits would be vast, to all the sciences, and would make the sea safer to travel. All the problems can be solved: too deep? Longer hose! With enough ships, enough diving bells, and divers, there is nothing physically impossible about doing this. But of course, it's not worth doing. Such a project could have consumed an entire economy indefinitely. To attempt it prematurely would have been folly - a folly we call pride. The Mediterranean Sea is not that big compared to other bodies of water on Earth, but it is still truly vast, effectively infinite, on a human scale. Even with modern equipment a full mapping of the Med is a truly daunting task. SpaceX is doing excellent work changing the economics of delivering goods to orbit by a factor of 10x or 100x. But even so, we are still at the diving bell level - or even worse - when it comes to space exploration and colonization. I DO NOT believe it makes sense for us, the modern Athenians, to even start spending enormous sums mapping the Med with sailboats and diving bells.

by senko 5y ago

javajosh 5y ago

I like politely disagreeing conversations - they are more productive! So, thanks. I get your gist, but I don't agree. The analogy I think of in this case is ancient Greece - let's say Athens. Imagine a precocious boy who discovers he can walk on the ocean floor by fitting an inverted bowl over his head and breathing the trapped air there for a time. He continues to innovate, and attaches a hose. He makes discoveries! Thrilled by his success, he pitches the idea of making an underwater map of the entire Mediterranean! The benefits would be vast, to all the sciences, and would make the sea safer to travel. All the problems can be solved: too deep? Longer hose! With enough ships, enough diving bells, and divers, there is nothing physically impossible about doing this. But of course, it's not worth doing. Such a project could have consumed an entire economy indefinitely. To attempt it prematurely would have been folly - a folly we call pride. The Mediterranean Sea is not that big compared to other bodies of water on Earth, but it is still truly vast, effectively infinite, on a human scale. Even with modern equipment a full mapping of the Med is a truly daunting task. SpaceX is doing excellent work changing the economics of delivering goods to orbit by a factor of 10x or 100x. But even so, we are still at the diving bell level - or even worse - when it comes to space exploration and colonization. I DO NOT believe it makes sense for us, the modern Athenians, to even start spending enormous sums mapping the Med with sailboats and diving bells.