What do you consider to be catastrophically incorrect? If the model predicts that a glacier disappears in 2050 and it disappears in 2070 instead? Or if the la

What do you consider to be catastrophically incorrect? If the model predicts that a glacier disappears in 2050 and it disappears in 2070 instead? Or if the lack-of-model makes a lack-of-prediction about glacier disappearance, and then it disappears in 2070 by surprise? Error accumulation makes sense to worry about if you're planning a voyage and worried that dead-reckoning navigation will leave you kilometres off course. But if you're on the voyage already, out on the open ocean, you can argue with the navigator's math but you still need to navigate -- you won't do better by just blindly insisting the boat never left the harbour.