3 ms·

Didn't the article cover the scenarios you mentioned? The article said that the lab's normal job was to look for new bat viruses, and that it's pretty hard to g

Didn't the article cover the scenarios you mentioned? The article said that the lab's normal job was to look for new bat viruses, and that it's pretty hard to get infected from a qtip swabbed over a bats anus stored in a stabilizing solution. The bottom line is that the evidence we have at this time points to nature as the most probable origin, and it's not unusual for it to take many years to figure these things out.

forcry 5y ago
>The bottom line is that the evidence we have at this time points to nature as the most probable origin.. Some scientists think otherwise, quite strongly in the opposite direction, it seems.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeW5sI-R1Qg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeW5sI-R1Qg and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbbJaaMG7Bs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbbJaaMG7Bs
- mikem170 5y ago
  I found this link [0] that seems to debunk, in a lot of detail, the congressional testimony of these two physicists on the specifics of their claims for evidence of gain of function manipulation in the gentic sequence of covid-19. That jives with another source [1] that explained, amongst other things, that there's genetic evidence covid-19 evolved in animals with intact immune systems, not in a lab. [0] https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/06/11/cggcgg-the-latest-new-old-wrinkle-in-the-covid-19-lab-leak-conspiracy-theory/ https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/06/11/cggcgg-the-latest... [1] https://leelabvirus.host/covid19/origins-part3 https://leelabvirus.host/covid19/origins-part3
  - forcry 5y ago
    Well, if the authors of these posts disagree, they should contact the government and offer their testimony as well, then we can consider their argument to hold similar weight.
    - mikem170 5y ago
      Congressional testimony tends to be more political than scientific, don't you think? Facts about DNA are still facts, regardless of who congress invites to speak before them. I never considered Congress to be gatekeepers of science.
      - forcry 5y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/edit?id=27757299 https://news.ycombinator.com/edit?id=27757299
    - Smashure 5y ago
      I’ve never seen someone say “their argument wasn’t made in front of congress, so it doesn’t hold the same weight” Attack their argument, not the location where they said the argument.
      - forcry 5y ago
        >Attack their argument, not the location where they said the argument. As layman, I am powerless to do so. So I have to go by how much stake the proponents are putting in their argument. A testimony before government puts a lot more of their reputation and what not, at stake, than a blog post on a domain that one control, that has also has no real legal weight.
        mikem170 5y ago
        I agree that it is tough that there are so many unfiltered voices on this. I've been giving the most weight to dna-based evidence, and explanations from virologists, and critiques from other virologists. It is understandable that others look for different sources of truth as they see fit.
        forcry 5y ago
        The sad fact of the situation that argument by some proxy does not really work. A person goes like "Here is what my scientist say!" and the others are like "No, you are wrong! Here is what my scientist say". It is quite funny thing. But in the link you posted >https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/06/11/cggcgg-the-latest-new-old-wrinkle-in-the-covid-19-lab-leak-conspiracy-theory/ https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/06/11/cggcgg-the-latest... I often found that site to be less trustworthy because of a large part of the beginning of the article dedicated to Ad hominm attack. The most insulting is that they condemn admonim attackes, as and attemt to some kind of virtue signalling, and proceed to do it anyway. This can be consistently observed in articles of similar nature in that site. Again, since I am not able to judge the article technically, I take this as an indication that the author is extremely biased and is trying to mislead readers.
  - aliasEli 5y ago
    > there's genetic evidence covid-19 evolved in animals with intact immune systems, not in a lab They had live animals in the lab.
mandmandam 5y ago
> The bottom line is that the evidence we have at this time points to nature as the most probable origin Keep in mind that circumstantial evidence is also evidence: such as the earliest cases happening in a single-digit mile radius from one of the worlds few labs studying gain-of-function in coronaviruses, while bats are hibernating, a thousand miles from the nearest bat colony, and the extraordinary response and threats re calls for investigation from officials. To me, that far outweighs the idea that some - NOT ALL - researchers have agreed that if there was editing done it was very smooth.
- mikem170 5y ago
  I'm not sure about your statement saying the earliest cases were near the wuhan lab. Do you have a source for that? I've seen the opposite, that there is genetic evidence that the virus originated 600 miles south of Wuhan, where there are bats: > Of 23 samples that came from Wuhan, only three were type A, the rest were type B, a version two mutations from A. But in other parts of China, Forster says, initially A was the predominant strain. For instance, of nine genome samples in Guangdong, some 600 miles south of Wuhan, five were A types. [0]. The above would imply that the markets in Wuhan were a super-spreader site for covid-19, but not the origin. Coronaviruses in bats and jumping from bats to humans is incredibly common, with 3% of people they randomly tested in bat cave areas with bat coronavirus antibodies [1], which this source extrapolated to mean that 1-7 million people a year are infected by various bat viruses. I agree with you that genetic evidence is the strongest evidence we have at this point. > To me, that far outweighs the idea that some - NOT ALL - researchers have agreed that if there was editing done it was very smooth Would be interesting if some lab tried to duplicate some of this theorized tricky editing, to prove it could be done. [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-13/scientist-suggests-coronavirus-originated-outside-of-wuhan https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-... [1] https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus...
canoebuilder 5y ago
>The bottom line is that the evidence we have at this time points to nature as the most probable origin, Highly tendentious claim... >and it's not unusual for it to take many years to figure these things out. Is that the case? Are you well-versed in this field? It is my understanding that previous epidemics of this sort in Asia in recent decades a host animal was identified in a matter of months. Are you privy to some valuable knowledge that is not widely dispersed in the literature? Because what you’re saying would seem to contradict it.
- mikem170 5y ago
  So you think that it's less than 51% probable that this virus jumped from nature (from animals) into people, like every other virus we know about? There's a lot of good sources saying otherwise, not just this article. EDIT: My primary sources in this matter have been this reddit post from a virologist [0] (available as a 30+ page pdf), and the strongest (but not the only) genetic evidence he references points to covid originating 600 miles south of wuhan [1], which was also discussed in this writeup by another virologist [2] who also got into detail on the genetic evidence that we do have. Here's another article on how common it is for humans to be infected by bat viruses [3], here's the infectious disease expert from Biden's treansition team saying covid likely jumped from animals to humans [4]. The original article detailed how it took 15 years to find the origin of SARS, and China was secretive with that, too. [0] https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... [1] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-13/scientist-suggests-coronavirus-originated-outside-of-wuhan https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-... [2] https://leelabvirus.host/covid19/origins-part3 https://leelabvirus.host/covid19/origins-part3 [3] https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus... [4] https://text.npr.org/1000780650 https://text.npr.org/1000780650
  - canoebuilder 5y ago
    Yes, similar viruses are known far outside Wuhan. In this case, with the first known infections occurring in Wuhan and no known bat coronavirus source anywhere near Wuhan, other than the Wuhan Institute of Virology..., lends credibility to the lab theory, does it not? Infections from nature aren’t rare, unfortunately neither are infections from labs. In fact, if you compare the relative few places on earth where this type of viral and pathogen research occurs to all the places humans interact with the natural world, I.e. the whole world, you could say infections coming from labs are actually are far more common occurrence proportionally adjusted. There is even a paper trail of government officials expressing concern about lax safety measures at this particular lab. Well before the world heard of coronavirus. If it is common for humans to be infected by bat viruses, I don’t see that as a point against the theory that one or more humans working at a lab that analyzes and manipulates bat viruses were infected with a bat virus that then led to a larger spread of the infection outside the lab.
hex4def6 5y ago
Here's a question: How many times did classic SARS escape from a lab? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346413716_A_review_of_SARS_Lab_Escapes_in_2003-2004 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346413716_A_review_...
- mikem170 5y ago
  So that is the basis for what? Is that a fact that changed your mind about the origins of covid? We know that lab leaks happen. Scary stuff. Even how many lab leaks there are here in the U.S. The paper you link to describes several lab leaks during a period of time while SARS was being widely studied. Its quite a leap from knowing there are lab leaks to implying that covid, or any other virus, leaked from a lab. There's relevant genetic evidence indicating that the earliest covid-19 cases were 600 miles south of Wuhan [0]. Also it is estimated, based on antibody testing, that there are millions of people every year who get infected with various bat coronaviruses [1]. More/better evidence is needed to prove a lab leak, given that nature does things like this all the time. [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-13/scientist-suggests-coronavirus-originated-outside-of-wuhan https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-... [1] https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus...
  - forcry 5y ago
    > earliest covid-19 cases were 600 miles south of Wuhan Nothing conclusive of that sort in that article. >All I can say is it doesn't look to me as if Wuhan is the prime candidate, because A exists in other regions of China at that time at possibly a higher frequency."

forcry 5y ago

>The bottom line is that the evidence we have at this time points to nature as the most probable origin.. Some scientists think otherwise, quite strongly in the opposite direction, it seems.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeW5sI-R1Qg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeW5sI-R1Qg and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbbJaaMG7Bs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbbJaaMG7Bs

mikem170 5y ago
I found this link [0] that seems to debunk, in a lot of detail, the congressional testimony of these two physicists on the specifics of their claims for evidence of gain of function manipulation in the gentic sequence of covid-19. That jives with another source [1] that explained, amongst other things, that there's genetic evidence covid-19 evolved in animals with intact immune systems, not in a lab. [0] https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/06/11/cggcgg-the-latest-new-old-wrinkle-in-the-covid-19-lab-leak-conspiracy-theory/ https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/06/11/cggcgg-the-latest... [1] https://leelabvirus.host/covid19/origins-part3 https://leelabvirus.host/covid19/origins-part3
- forcry 5y ago
  Well, if the authors of these posts disagree, they should contact the government and offer their testimony as well, then we can consider their argument to hold similar weight.
  - mikem170 5y ago
    Congressional testimony tends to be more political than scientific, don't you think? Facts about DNA are still facts, regardless of who congress invites to speak before them. I never considered Congress to be gatekeepers of science.
    - forcry 5y ago
      https://news.ycombinator.com/edit?id=27757299 https://news.ycombinator.com/edit?id=27757299
  - Smashure 5y ago
    I’ve never seen someone say “their argument wasn’t made in front of congress, so it doesn’t hold the same weight” Attack their argument, not the location where they said the argument.
    - forcry 5y ago
      >Attack their argument, not the location where they said the argument. As layman, I am powerless to do so. So I have to go by how much stake the proponents are putting in their argument. A testimony before government puts a lot more of their reputation and what not, at stake, than a blog post on a domain that one control, that has also has no real legal weight.
      - mikem170 5y ago
        I agree that it is tough that there are so many unfiltered voices on this. I've been giving the most weight to dna-based evidence, and explanations from virologists, and critiques from other virologists. It is understandable that others look for different sources of truth as they see fit.
        forcry 5y ago
        The sad fact of the situation that argument by some proxy does not really work. A person goes like "Here is what my scientist say!" and the others are like "No, you are wrong! Here is what my scientist say". It is quite funny thing. But in the link you posted >https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/06/11/cggcgg-the-latest-new-old-wrinkle-in-the-covid-19-lab-leak-conspiracy-theory/ https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/06/11/cggcgg-the-latest... I often found that site to be less trustworthy because of a large part of the beginning of the article dedicated to Ad hominm attack. The most insulting is that they condemn admonim attackes, as and attemt to some kind of virtue signalling, and proceed to do it anyway. This can be consistently observed in articles of similar nature in that site. Again, since I am not able to judge the article technically, I take this as an indication that the author is extremely biased and is trying to mislead readers.
- aliasEli 5y ago
  > there's genetic evidence covid-19 evolved in animals with intact immune systems, not in a lab They had live animals in the lab.

mandmandam 5y ago

> The bottom line is that the evidence we have at this time points to nature as the most probable origin Keep in mind that circumstantial evidence is also evidence: such as the earliest cases happening in a single-digit mile radius from one of the worlds few labs studying gain-of-function in coronaviruses, while bats are hibernating, a thousand miles from the nearest bat colony, and the extraordinary response and threats re calls for investigation from officials. To me, that far outweighs the idea that some - NOT ALL - researchers have agreed that if there was editing done it was very smooth.

mikem170 5y ago
I'm not sure about your statement saying the earliest cases were near the wuhan lab. Do you have a source for that? I've seen the opposite, that there is genetic evidence that the virus originated 600 miles south of Wuhan, where there are bats: > Of 23 samples that came from Wuhan, only three were type A, the rest were type B, a version two mutations from A. But in other parts of China, Forster says, initially A was the predominant strain. For instance, of nine genome samples in Guangdong, some 600 miles south of Wuhan, five were A types. [0]. The above would imply that the markets in Wuhan were a super-spreader site for covid-19, but not the origin. Coronaviruses in bats and jumping from bats to humans is incredibly common, with 3% of people they randomly tested in bat cave areas with bat coronavirus antibodies [1], which this source extrapolated to mean that 1-7 million people a year are infected by various bat viruses. I agree with you that genetic evidence is the strongest evidence we have at this point. > To me, that far outweighs the idea that some - NOT ALL - researchers have agreed that if there was editing done it was very smooth Would be interesting if some lab tried to duplicate some of this theorized tricky editing, to prove it could be done. [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-13/scientist-suggests-coronavirus-originated-outside-of-wuhan https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-... [1] https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus...

canoebuilder 5y ago

>The bottom line is that the evidence we have at this time points to nature as the most probable origin, Highly tendentious claim... >and it's not unusual for it to take many years to figure these things out. Is that the case? Are you well-versed in this field? It is my understanding that previous epidemics of this sort in Asia in recent decades a host animal was identified in a matter of months. Are you privy to some valuable knowledge that is not widely dispersed in the literature? Because what you’re saying would seem to contradict it.

mikem170 5y ago
So you think that it's less than 51% probable that this virus jumped from nature (from animals) into people, like every other virus we know about? There's a lot of good sources saying otherwise, not just this article. EDIT: My primary sources in this matter have been this reddit post from a virologist [0] (available as a 30+ page pdf), and the strongest (but not the only) genetic evidence he references points to covid originating 600 miles south of wuhan [1], which was also discussed in this writeup by another virologist [2] who also got into detail on the genetic evidence that we do have. Here's another article on how common it is for humans to be infected by bat viruses [3], here's the infectious disease expert from Biden's treansition team saying covid likely jumped from animals to humans [4]. The original article detailed how it took 15 years to find the origin of SARS, and China was secretive with that, too. [0] https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... [1] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-13/scientist-suggests-coronavirus-originated-outside-of-wuhan https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-... [2] https://leelabvirus.host/covid19/origins-part3 https://leelabvirus.host/covid19/origins-part3 [3] https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus... [4] https://text.npr.org/1000780650 https://text.npr.org/1000780650
- canoebuilder 5y ago
  Yes, similar viruses are known far outside Wuhan. In this case, with the first known infections occurring in Wuhan and no known bat coronavirus source anywhere near Wuhan, other than the Wuhan Institute of Virology..., lends credibility to the lab theory, does it not? Infections from nature aren’t rare, unfortunately neither are infections from labs. In fact, if you compare the relative few places on earth where this type of viral and pathogen research occurs to all the places humans interact with the natural world, I.e. the whole world, you could say infections coming from labs are actually are far more common occurrence proportionally adjusted. There is even a paper trail of government officials expressing concern about lax safety measures at this particular lab. Well before the world heard of coronavirus. If it is common for humans to be infected by bat viruses, I don’t see that as a point against the theory that one or more humans working at a lab that analyzes and manipulates bat viruses were infected with a bat virus that then led to a larger spread of the infection outside the lab.

hex4def6 5y ago

Here's a question: How many times did classic SARS escape from a lab? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346413716_A_review_of_SARS_Lab_Escapes_in_2003-2004 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346413716_A_review_...

mikem170 5y ago
So that is the basis for what? Is that a fact that changed your mind about the origins of covid? We know that lab leaks happen. Scary stuff. Even how many lab leaks there are here in the U.S. The paper you link to describes several lab leaks during a period of time while SARS was being widely studied. Its quite a leap from knowing there are lab leaks to implying that covid, or any other virus, leaked from a lab. There's relevant genetic evidence indicating that the earliest covid-19 cases were 600 miles south of Wuhan [0]. Also it is estimated, based on antibody testing, that there are millions of people every year who get infected with various bat coronaviruses [1]. More/better evidence is needed to prove a lab leak, given that nature does things like this all the time. [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-13/scientist-suggests-coronavirus-originated-outside-of-wuhan https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-... [1] https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus...
- forcry 5y ago
  > earliest covid-19 cases were 600 miles south of Wuhan Nothing conclusive of that sort in that article. >All I can say is it doesn't look to me as if Wuhan is the prime candidate, because A exists in other regions of China at that time at possibly a higher frequency."