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> It takes 3 to 7 years to see some negative consequences of vaccines I tried some Google Fu but all I came up with was this: https://www.chop.edu/news/long-t

> It takes 3 to 7 years to see some negative consequences of vaccines I tried some Google Fu but all I came up with was this: https://www.chop.edu/news/long-term-side-effects-covid-19-vaccine https://www.chop.edu/news/long-term-side-effects-covid-19-va... > The history of vaccines shows that delayed effects following vaccination can occur. But when they do, these effects tend to happen within two months of vaccination > These experiences demonstrate two important findings. First, when these events occurred, the onset was within eight weeks of receipt of the vaccine.

samatman 5y ago
The nightmare scenario is antibody-dependent enhancement of a mutated strain of NCov-SARS-2, or a related coronavirus. It's impossible, of course, to test for this. However unlikely it might be (not keeping me up at night, to put it mildly), this would be a negative vaccine consequence which wouldn't reveal itself until whenever said related virus broke out into the population.
eggy 5y ago
This is the first mRNA vaccine; it cannot be measured by the same standards as a standard vaccine. Per your first comment, see Johnson&Johnson's own website[0] for typical time periods for vaccine testing and approval. Phase 1, Preclinical stage can usually take up to 4 years, but mRNA circumvents a lot of this, and J&J did it from end of January 2020 to end of March 2020. Phase 1/2a usually takes several months to a year. I am not talking about immediate side effects that a lot of people experience, but possible, long term effects we cannot know at this point in a novel vaccine. We are getting reports of pericarditis and myocarditis emerging in otherwise healthy young males. Rare given the number of vaccines given, but so then are deaths rare to the same age group this is occurring in [1], and we've only been giving the vaccine for almost 7 months (first vaccine Dec. 14, 2020). There have been 326 deaths in 0 to 17 year olds in the US as of June 30, 2021. That's 9.939e-7 or 9.939e-5 percent based on a US population of 326m. By comparison and for perspective of risk/benefit, there were 792 deaths by pneumonia in the same age bracket in the US. Why rush to vaccinate our young and healthy, and those healthy, young people who have already had COVID? On the positive side, mRNA vaccines take away the risk associated with making vaccines the traditional way in the handling of live virus to produce a traditional vaccine, allow for transmitting the formula electronically anywhere to be made by a suitable laboratory, and production can be sped up. I am excited by its future to fight disease and save lives, however, it's just too soon for a push to vaccinate 12 year olds given the risk/benefit analysis and the amount of data to study. I have skin in this game, like most of us, not just improving my Google Fu or points on HN. I have older children who have been vaccinated at ages 21 and 23(even though they had COVID already in late December 2020), and younger ones (2 and 6 years old who I will not vaccinate until more data has been collected and evaluated. The mRNA COVID vaccines seem to have a wider bio-distribution than a traditional vaccine's contents do, specifically in the ovaries of women and in the bone marrow, and only time will tell what this means. It is the first of its kind, so I hardly think it can be evaluated under the same criteria as traditional vaccines. 30% profit margin on $15bn and total immunity for the vaccine companies should something go wrong per the PREP act doesn't give me confidence as a consumer of a novel vaccine. I am not an anti-vaxxer, maybe a anti-novel-vaxxer-without-sufficient-data-and-time person! Given I am otherwise healthy (no diabetes, heart disease, obesity, or other conditions), and my entire immediate family has had COVID, I will play it safe and go with natural immunity until the vaccines have more time under their belt. I am still skeptical on why natural immunity is being pushed to the side. Try finding reputable articles and studies vs. the number of social and regulatory pressures to get vaccinated. Even when antibodies no longer show in some testing, it has been shown that the body has been prepared to deal with future COVID or SARS viruses vs. a first exposure. Natural immunity also triggers based on the entire surface of the virus, and not just the spike protein that the mRNA is engineered to, so it offers a wider response to COVID/SARS than the mRNA vaccine IMHO. [0] https://www.jnj.com/innovation/the-5-stages-of-covid-19-vaccine-development-what-you-need-to-know-about-how-a-clinical-trial-works https://www.jnj.com/innovation/the-5-stages-of-covid-19-vacc... [1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex...
sjwalter 5y ago
https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Vaccines+and+Autoimmunity-p-9781118663431 https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Vaccines+and+Autoimmunity-p-9781... It's so, so strange that otherwise smart people believe that this one giant category of medical technology has no long-term side effects. Like, FDA phase 3 trials are totally superfluous for vaccines, right? Because you can detect all the problems in 2 months! Remember, the medical community can absolutely get things super-wrong in super-damaging ways for huge swaths of the population. OxyContin was for decades called "non-addictive" and prescribed like candy, leading to a nation-wide opiate crisis. The very same pharma community that lead to that is also responsible for making it seem like vaccines are just so insanely great there're never side-effects. (Disclaimer: I am more vaccinated than you, have e.g. yellow fever and rabies vaccines, I love vaccines, but still I'm not touching these vaccines as they have not completed phase 3 FDA trials.)
- bena 5y ago
  Is that the paper they had retracted due to lack of reproducibility? Or the one where they claim vaccines lead to autism? I forget because the authors have had papers on their vaccine research retracted for various reasons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yehuda_Shoenfeld https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yehuda_Shoenfeld https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Shaw_(neuroscientist) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Shaw_(neuroscienti... (It talks about Lucija Tomljenovic in there, but Shaw isn't much better) Or the fact that ASIA hasn't been confirmed by any reproducible study? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoimmune/inflammatory_syndrome_induced_by_adjuvants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoimmune/inflammatory_syndro... You try and stave off criticism to play concern troll by making the claim you are "more vaccinated" than everyone else. But you are peddling junk science about other vaccines to discredit this vaccine.

samatman 5y ago

The nightmare scenario is antibody-dependent enhancement of a mutated strain of NCov-SARS-2, or a related coronavirus. It's impossible, of course, to test for this. However unlikely it might be (not keeping me up at night, to put it mildly), this would be a negative vaccine consequence which wouldn't reveal itself until whenever said related virus broke out into the population.

eggy 5y ago

This is the first mRNA vaccine; it cannot be measured by the same standards as a standard vaccine. Per your first comment, see Johnson&Johnson's own website[0] for typical time periods for vaccine testing and approval. Phase 1, Preclinical stage can usually take up to 4 years, but mRNA circumvents a lot of this, and J&J did it from end of January 2020 to end of March 2020. Phase 1/2a usually takes several months to a year. I am not talking about immediate side effects that a lot of people experience, but possible, long term effects we cannot know at this point in a novel vaccine. We are getting reports of pericarditis and myocarditis emerging in otherwise healthy young males. Rare given the number of vaccines given, but so then are deaths rare to the same age group this is occurring in [1], and we've only been giving the vaccine for almost 7 months (first vaccine Dec. 14, 2020). There have been 326 deaths in 0 to 17 year olds in the US as of June 30, 2021. That's 9.939e-7 or 9.939e-5 percent based on a US population of 326m. By comparison and for perspective of risk/benefit, there were 792 deaths by pneumonia in the same age bracket in the US. Why rush to vaccinate our young and healthy, and those healthy, young people who have already had COVID? On the positive side, mRNA vaccines take away the risk associated with making vaccines the traditional way in the handling of live virus to produce a traditional vaccine, allow for transmitting the formula electronically anywhere to be made by a suitable laboratory, and production can be sped up. I am excited by its future to fight disease and save lives, however, it's just too soon for a push to vaccinate 12 year olds given the risk/benefit analysis and the amount of data to study. I have skin in this game, like most of us, not just improving my Google Fu or points on HN. I have older children who have been vaccinated at ages 21 and 23(even though they had COVID already in late December 2020), and younger ones (2 and 6 years old who I will not vaccinate until more data has been collected and evaluated. The mRNA COVID vaccines seem to have a wider bio-distribution than a traditional vaccine's contents do, specifically in the ovaries of women and in the bone marrow, and only time will tell what this means. It is the first of its kind, so I hardly think it can be evaluated under the same criteria as traditional vaccines. 30% profit margin on $15bn and total immunity for the vaccine companies should something go wrong per the PREP act doesn't give me confidence as a consumer of a novel vaccine. I am not an anti-vaxxer, maybe a anti-novel-vaxxer-without-sufficient-data-and-time person! Given I am otherwise healthy (no diabetes, heart disease, obesity, or other conditions), and my entire immediate family has had COVID, I will play it safe and go with natural immunity until the vaccines have more time under their belt. I am still skeptical on why natural immunity is being pushed to the side. Try finding reputable articles and studies vs. the number of social and regulatory pressures to get vaccinated. Even when antibodies no longer show in some testing, it has been shown that the body has been prepared to deal with future COVID or SARS viruses vs. a first exposure. Natural immunity also triggers based on the entire surface of the virus, and not just the spike protein that the mRNA is engineered to, so it offers a wider response to COVID/SARS than the mRNA vaccine IMHO. [0] https://www.jnj.com/innovation/the-5-stages-of-covid-19-vaccine-development-what-you-need-to-know-about-how-a-clinical-trial-works https://www.jnj.com/innovation/the-5-stages-of-covid-19-vacc... [1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex...

sjwalter 5y ago

https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Vaccines+and+Autoimmunity-p-9781118663431 https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Vaccines+and+Autoimmunity-p-9781... It's so, so strange that otherwise smart people believe that this one giant category of medical technology has no long-term side effects. Like, FDA phase 3 trials are totally superfluous for vaccines, right? Because you can detect all the problems in 2 months! Remember, the medical community can absolutely get things super-wrong in super-damaging ways for huge swaths of the population. OxyContin was for decades called "non-addictive" and prescribed like candy, leading to a nation-wide opiate crisis. The very same pharma community that lead to that is also responsible for making it seem like vaccines are just so insanely great there're never side-effects. (Disclaimer: I am more vaccinated than you, have e.g. yellow fever and rabies vaccines, I love vaccines, but still I'm not touching these vaccines as they have not completed phase 3 FDA trials.)

bena 5y ago
Is that the paper they had retracted due to lack of reproducibility? Or the one where they claim vaccines lead to autism? I forget because the authors have had papers on their vaccine research retracted for various reasons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yehuda_Shoenfeld https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yehuda_Shoenfeld https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Shaw_(neuroscientist) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Shaw_(neuroscienti... (It talks about Lucija Tomljenovic in there, but Shaw isn't much better) Or the fact that ASIA hasn't been confirmed by any reproducible study? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoimmune/inflammatory_syndrome_induced_by_adjuvants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoimmune/inflammatory_syndro... You try and stave off criticism to play concern troll by making the claim you are "more vaccinated" than everyone else. But you are peddling junk science about other vaccines to discredit this vaccine.