3 ms·
On the first point, they're just saying that 3 people seeing a doctor about flu symptoms at that time of year is not unusual (most Chinese routinely go to hospi
by simonh 5y ago
On the first point, they're just saying that 3 people seeing a doctor about flu symptoms at that time of year is not unusual (most Chinese routinely go to hospitals for any medical treatment), and that even if they did have Covid instead of flu they might have got it outside the lab. There were people in Wuhan with Covid back then, but there were a lot more people with flu. The odds that any given three people with flu symptoms in Wuhan at that time actually had covid was still very small.
On the route into humans, I'm no expert but as I understand it while these viruses are found in bats the most likely route to humans is via another mammal intermediate such as a pangolin or cat. The reasons for this seems to be that bats are just too small and the virus load too thin to pose a threat to humans. So bat to human is very unlikely, but bat to cat is more plausible, and then cat (etc) to human also more plausible. I've no way to validate if that's accurate.
It really is all numbers games though. All we can say is what is more or less likely, and I think that's all the article is trying to explain.
- aliasEli 5y ago> The reasons for this seems to be that bats are just too small and the virus load too thin to pose a threat to humans. So bat to human is very unlikely, but bat to cat is more plausible, and then cat (etc) to human also more plausible. Some bat species, e.g. flying foxes are not really small and can weigh about 1 kg. Also bats are very strange that they can tolerate high virus loads without getting ill. There is a report that one of the Chinese researcher got infected while collecting samples.
- simonh 5y agoAccording to the article these specific bats involved in the research are very small.
- zohch 5y ago> they're just saying that 3 people seeing a doctor about flu symptoms at that time of year is not unusual (most Chinese routinely go to hospitals for any medical treatment) But what evidence is there that this was the case, that they just had normal flu like symptoms, and it was not more serious? What information at all do we have about their cases, and how trustworthy is this information, and why does this have to come out through leaked intelligence reports if China is so sure they have nothing to hide?
- jyounker 5y agoWhat evidence do we have that it was anything other than normal flu?
- user-the-name 5y agoMuch more relevantly, what evidence is there that this wasn't flu? That is where you need to start. You can't assume your conclusion and demand everyone else disprove you.
- ncmncm 5y agoI suppose it is possible you have noticed that a SARS pandemic started at around that same time and same place and spread over the whole damn world? The circumstantial evidence is wholly consistent with it not being flu. We don't know, but there is no burden of proof on one side--even if you would like it to be the side you are not on.
- plank_time 5y ago3 people who work on coronavirus research at a lab that is known for lax standards catch coronavirus, and you think it’s more plausible that they each caught it from outside?
- lamontcg 5y agoThere's no evidence they caught coronavirus There's no evidence they were even sick Nobody knows which workers they are or who their names are The article in the WSJ that really ignited the story about the "three researchers at WIV" is the same guy that in 2002 co-authored the piece in the NYT with Judith Curry about Saddam Hussein's nuclear WMD program.