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"Ever since the SARS outbreak of 2002-03, after all, paper after paper and countless popular pieces have warned that, sooner or later, nature would produce the

"Ever since the SARS outbreak of 2002-03, after all, paper after paper and countless popular pieces have warned that, sooner or later, nature would produce the next big SARS." In 1995 Laurie Garrett warned about how the world could be brought to its knees by another airborne flu-like illness in "The Coming Plague".[1] The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings that humans were continuing to play russian roulette with the way they were living with an using animals. Virologists knew this and warned about this, but the rest of the world chose to ignore them. As things return to "normal" for the parts of the world lucky enough to get vaccinated it's likely that we're going to return to sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that this could never happen again, especially if we believe SARS 2 was created by humans instead of being just another natural disease... with probably a bunch more waiting in the wings. [1] - https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases-Balance/dp/0140250913 https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases-Balan...

pjc50 5y ago
> especially if we believe SARS 2 was created by humans instead of being just another natural disease Here's the thing: if we knew the answer definitively to the lab-leak question, how would it change the pandemic response? The things we need to do to combat the virus remain the same.
- GekkePrutser 5y ago
  For the current pandemic yes, but we could start banning all gain of function research to make another one less likely. And increase lab safety measures.
  - pmoriarty 5y ago
    Since virtually every disease comes from nature and not from labs, the thing that would really make a big difference is stopping encroaching on animal habitats and distancing ourselves from animals (including stopping the eating of animals).. not to mention massive increases in funding to virology and way better pandemic planning.
  - simonh 5y ago
    That's not necessarily the best response even in that case. We know for a fact that animal to human transmission happens, and that it will happen again. I don't know the ins and outs but it's possible that gain of function research could be crucial in preventing or fighting future natural outbreaks. That's a judgement that we should consider carefully. If you're fighting a shooting war and you have an explosion in a munitions factory, you don't necessarily decide to stop making munitions, or perhaps even that type of munition because it's too dangerous. You make a judgement that balances the risks.
    - forcry 5y ago
      >If you're fighting a shooting war and you have an explosion in a munitions factory, you don't necessarily decide to stop making munitions What an apt analogy!
      - dv_dt 5y ago
        Except that munitions don’t self replicate. It’s more like deciding to do munitions research specifically in enemy territory where the research could be taken an used against you on any security breach.
    - dTal 5y ago
      Except the gain-of-function research specifically targeting covid-like viruses did not help us prepare or respond to the current pandemic one bit. On that basis alone we should suspend this research. It's not worth the risk.
      - thomaslord 5y ago
        I'm not familiar with the specifics of gain-of-function research, but on its face this comment sounds a lot like "we haven't developed a vaccine for COVID yet, so we should ban trying to develop a vaccine" would've sounded a few months before the vaccines came out. In scientific research particularly, not having seen results yet doesn't mean we should abandon the research. If gain-of-function research is supposed to help us gain a better understanding of viruses and we're likely to see more pandemic-worthy viruses like SARS and SARS-CoV-2 arise naturally, I think any ban should be considered very carefully.
stavros 5y ago
> The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings that humans were continuing to play russian roulette with the way they were living with an using animals. How do we live with and use bats that makes viruses crossing over more likely, though?
- danparsonson 5y ago
  By increasingly moving into their territory and disturbing populations of animals with which we were hitherto not in contact.
  - voxic11 5y ago
    Wuhan is a very old city. Settled in 1500 BC.
    - danparsonson 5y ago
      The point is not where the city is, but where its inhabitants (or visiting traders) go in search of natural resources.
- Taniwha 5y ago
  Both the Ebola and Marburg viruses both seem to live in bats in Africa and periodically transfer to humans - given it's happening in one place means it's not surprising it happens elsewhere
  - joejerryronnie 5y ago
    Sure, but does it happen right next to a world renowned Ebola virus research center?
    - InitialLastName 5y ago
      I would be willing to bet that if Ebola were a frequent issue in a country that had the ability to construct a world-class virus research center, there would be a research center very close to the locations where Ebola had a natural reservoir. No matter how hard you yell it, correlation is not causation (and even when there is causation, the direction of the causation isn't always obvious).
accurrent 5y ago
Governments really need to start getting their shit together and stop blaming each other for their own mishandling (this will never happen I know). There is no point in trying to blame each other or cook up new regulations (enforcing regulation, particularly international regulation is just never going to happen). Quite frankly,most governments should seriously start considering how they will defend their citizens against biological threats. This means governments should do the following: 1. Build vaccine manufacturing capabilities. These are as important as other aspects of physical armed force defense. Every country should try to have their own facility given how vaccine supplies are being weaponised by certain powers. 2. Build up hospital capacity and make healthcare affordable. Train more doctors and nurses. In particular nurses are very important and generally require less training, so I would focus on building up a reserve of nurses. Pandemics will only get worse with our aging population. Our beds:human ratio is terrible even in the most advanced countries. 3. Invest in R&D towards breakthrough technologies in testing. There are currently tests like Breathonix's breathe based test that can detect a covid infection in 2 minutes with pretty decent sensitivity. 4. Build a medical reserves corps. This would be a group of citizens who voluntarily are trained in basic first aid. 5. Build more oxygen plants/equip hospitals and ambulances with oxygen concentrators. 6. Conduct drills like the Army does that simulate such an emergency. Practice emergency buying. Keep your medical corps on their toes. 7. Make sure every god damn citizen has a bank account so you can transfer emergency funds into the account in the event of a major economic disruption. 8. Estimate the financial impact and provide backup options for people who work in the service industry. If you were an air hostess for instance, you would have some basic training in medical emergency handling. In the event of a pandemic, your income source will be hurt. However, the government would definitely be scrambling for nurses and contact tracers. These are jobs that could be taken up temporarily during the duration of the pandemic. 9. Work on technolgies and training for deployment of field hospitals. None of these actions should change irregardless of whether the vaccine is a lab leak or not a lab leak.
- morpheos137 5y ago
  The biggest thing that made the pandemic so bad outside of china was large fractions of the population not taking it seriously. That said this pandemic was objectively not that bad by historical standards.

pjc50 5y ago

> especially if we believe SARS 2 was created by humans instead of being just another natural disease Here's the thing: if we knew the answer definitively to the lab-leak question, how would it change the pandemic response? The things we need to do to combat the virus remain the same.

GekkePrutser 5y ago
For the current pandemic yes, but we could start banning all gain of function research to make another one less likely. And increase lab safety measures.
- pmoriarty 5y ago
  Since virtually every disease comes from nature and not from labs, the thing that would really make a big difference is stopping encroaching on animal habitats and distancing ourselves from animals (including stopping the eating of animals).. not to mention massive increases in funding to virology and way better pandemic planning.
- simonh 5y ago
  That's not necessarily the best response even in that case. We know for a fact that animal to human transmission happens, and that it will happen again. I don't know the ins and outs but it's possible that gain of function research could be crucial in preventing or fighting future natural outbreaks. That's a judgement that we should consider carefully. If you're fighting a shooting war and you have an explosion in a munitions factory, you don't necessarily decide to stop making munitions, or perhaps even that type of munition because it's too dangerous. You make a judgement that balances the risks.
  - forcry 5y ago
    >If you're fighting a shooting war and you have an explosion in a munitions factory, you don't necessarily decide to stop making munitions What an apt analogy!
    - dv_dt 5y ago
      Except that munitions don’t self replicate. It’s more like deciding to do munitions research specifically in enemy territory where the research could be taken an used against you on any security breach.
  - dTal 5y ago
    Except the gain-of-function research specifically targeting covid-like viruses did not help us prepare or respond to the current pandemic one bit. On that basis alone we should suspend this research. It's not worth the risk.
    - thomaslord 5y ago
      I'm not familiar with the specifics of gain-of-function research, but on its face this comment sounds a lot like "we haven't developed a vaccine for COVID yet, so we should ban trying to develop a vaccine" would've sounded a few months before the vaccines came out. In scientific research particularly, not having seen results yet doesn't mean we should abandon the research. If gain-of-function research is supposed to help us gain a better understanding of viruses and we're likely to see more pandemic-worthy viruses like SARS and SARS-CoV-2 arise naturally, I think any ban should be considered very carefully.

stavros 5y ago

> The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings that humans were continuing to play russian roulette with the way they were living with an using animals. How do we live with and use bats that makes viruses crossing over more likely, though?

danparsonson 5y ago
By increasingly moving into their territory and disturbing populations of animals with which we were hitherto not in contact.
- voxic11 5y ago
  Wuhan is a very old city. Settled in 1500 BC.
  - danparsonson 5y ago
    The point is not where the city is, but where its inhabitants (or visiting traders) go in search of natural resources.
Taniwha 5y ago
Both the Ebola and Marburg viruses both seem to live in bats in Africa and periodically transfer to humans - given it's happening in one place means it's not surprising it happens elsewhere
- joejerryronnie 5y ago
  Sure, but does it happen right next to a world renowned Ebola virus research center?
  - InitialLastName 5y ago
    I would be willing to bet that if Ebola were a frequent issue in a country that had the ability to construct a world-class virus research center, there would be a research center very close to the locations where Ebola had a natural reservoir. No matter how hard you yell it, correlation is not causation (and even when there is causation, the direction of the causation isn't always obvious).

accurrent 5y ago

Governments really need to start getting their shit together and stop blaming each other for their own mishandling (this will never happen I know). There is no point in trying to blame each other or cook up new regulations (enforcing regulation, particularly international regulation is just never going to happen). Quite frankly,most governments should seriously start considering how they will defend their citizens against biological threats. This means governments should do the following: 1. Build vaccine manufacturing capabilities. These are as important as other aspects of physical armed force defense. Every country should try to have their own facility given how vaccine supplies are being weaponised by certain powers. 2. Build up hospital capacity and make healthcare affordable. Train more doctors and nurses. In particular nurses are very important and generally require less training, so I would focus on building up a reserve of nurses. Pandemics will only get worse with our aging population. Our beds:human ratio is terrible even in the most advanced countries. 3. Invest in R&D towards breakthrough technologies in testing. There are currently tests like Breathonix's breathe based test that can detect a covid infection in 2 minutes with pretty decent sensitivity. 4. Build a medical reserves corps. This would be a group of citizens who voluntarily are trained in basic first aid. 5. Build more oxygen plants/equip hospitals and ambulances with oxygen concentrators. 6. Conduct drills like the Army does that simulate such an emergency. Practice emergency buying. Keep your medical corps on their toes. 7. Make sure every god damn citizen has a bank account so you can transfer emergency funds into the account in the event of a major economic disruption. 8. Estimate the financial impact and provide backup options for people who work in the service industry. If you were an air hostess for instance, you would have some basic training in medical emergency handling. In the event of a pandemic, your income source will be hurt. However, the government would definitely be scrambling for nurses and contact tracers. These are jobs that could be taken up temporarily during the duration of the pandemic. 9. Work on technolgies and training for deployment of field hospitals. None of these actions should change irregardless of whether the vaccine is a lab leak or not a lab leak.

morpheos137 5y ago
The biggest thing that made the pandemic so bad outside of china was large fractions of the population not taking it seriously. That said this pandemic was objectively not that bad by historical standards.