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People who think this won't happen or unlikely to happen need to look at where HK is at right now and what happened to HK over the course of last few years. Tai

People who think this won't happen or unlikely to happen need to look at where HK is at right now and what happened to HK over the course of last few years. Taiwan is a much bigger fish and has things like TSMC that China really wants/needs. Sooner rather than later, it is actually very LIKELY to happen, esp. if Xi wants to see it happen in his days.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
jjk166 5y ago
China is on the precipice of a major demographic issue - it's military age population is collapsing at the same time that a major cohort is reaching the end of its productive years. China is making major moves right now to eliminate potential sources of unrest because in a short period of time it will not be able to. HK is part of China's continental territory, no foreign power, especially the waning British, could possibly hope to stop Chinese military action there. Similarly with the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, and the border regions of Tibet, China wants to stamp out local identity which could lead to sepratist movements or worse revolutionary action in a few years when it's economic growth inevitably slows down and people start questioning the utility of the CCP at the same time that its power reaches a low. Taiwan though is different. China is not a strong naval power, its strength traditionally relying on its overwhelmingly immense land army. Amphibious invasions are among the most difficult operations in warfare, and Taiwan's geography limits potential invasions to only a few easily defendable points. China is building up its naval capabilities, but getting to the point that seizing Taiwan is even feasible will still take years - years that they don't have. This is to say nothing of the inevitable coalition that would join Taiwan in resisting such an invasion. Without experience in such invasions, China would be likely to suffer tremendous losses for trivial gains, at least at first. This would make the CCP appear incompetent and further reduce their military capabilities at exactly the same time that they would be most at risk of internal strife, which no doubt foreign powers would be throwing their full weight behind. No, it makes more sense that China's current posturing is saber rattling meant to stir nationalist sentiment in its own population. It's the same reason for its recent clashing with India and its remarkable recent diplomatic hostility. The last thing it wants or needs is new territory full of independence minded dissidents, but creating external enemies is a classic and often effective play for regimes on rocky ground. While it's always possible that some hawkish firebrand comes to power or there is some major miscommunication that leads to hostility, the CCP and Xi especially have a long track record of pursuing stability above all else, which has honestly been the Chinese goto play for thousands of years. An invasion of Taiwan would be in direct opposition to that goal, and could only end very badly for the CCP and Xi. Perhaps if China survives its demographic crisis it will emerge as a premiere power that can seriously consider such military expeditions, but it'll be dealing with that problem for a generation.
- ArkanExplorer 5y ago
  China's fertility rate (assuming it is accurate) is excellent by the standards of other high-IQ populations, at 1.69. By contrast, Taiwan is dreadful, at 1.07. Eventually, China will be able to just sail in. The real threat to our chip supplies is that the world will run out of intelligent Taiwanese people to operate TSMC.
  - jjk166 5y ago
    The thing about demographics is that it doesn't matter what your fertility rate is now, it matters what it was 20 years ago. The fact is that China's largest cohort turns 31 this year, while it's current military age cohorts are half its size, and shrinking. The cohort turning 18 this year is the smallest since the Great Leap Forward. The next cohort with 10 million males is currently 5 years old, and it is an anomalous blip with the most recent cohort being 20% smaller and near future cohorts undoubtedly to be smaller still due to the decreasing size of their parental cohorts. Your population in their 20s are your soldiers, your baby makers, your first home buyers, your 80 hour a week workers, your pop culture consumers - a sharp drop in their numbers is catastrophic for a nation's geopolitical and economic health. Combined with China's baby boom about to enter their 60s, when their economic productivity will substantially decline and their medical costs will skyrocket, to be supported primarily by weak cohorts 20 years younger it is a terrible position to be in. On top of this, the People's Republic of China is currently 72 years old, for context Russia went 74 years from the abdication of the Tsar to the fall of the Soviet Union, and the average lifetime of China's 49 dynasties has been 70 years. 65 to 75 years is approximately how long the revolution remains in living memory, how long people are still alive who personally remember how bad the previous regime was and thus continue to excuse any faults of the current regime. Once it passes out of living memory, calls for reform become far more intense. This triple whammy is imminent and inescapable. For China to survive, it will have to deal with a shortage of manpower, a dramatic increase in the cost of social services, severe economic contraction, and the reforging of a national identity all at the same time, with a reduced sized military, a large number of young unmarried males with poor prospects, all while under severe external pressure along all fronts. This will be a rough decade for China.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

jjk166 5y ago

China is on the precipice of a major demographic issue - it's military age population is collapsing at the same time that a major cohort is reaching the end of its productive years. China is making major moves right now to eliminate potential sources of unrest because in a short period of time it will not be able to. HK is part of China's continental territory, no foreign power, especially the waning British, could possibly hope to stop Chinese military action there. Similarly with the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, and the border regions of Tibet, China wants to stamp out local identity which could lead to sepratist movements or worse revolutionary action in a few years when it's economic growth inevitably slows down and people start questioning the utility of the CCP at the same time that its power reaches a low. Taiwan though is different. China is not a strong naval power, its strength traditionally relying on its overwhelmingly immense land army. Amphibious invasions are among the most difficult operations in warfare, and Taiwan's geography limits potential invasions to only a few easily defendable points. China is building up its naval capabilities, but getting to the point that seizing Taiwan is even feasible will still take years - years that they don't have. This is to say nothing of the inevitable coalition that would join Taiwan in resisting such an invasion. Without experience in such invasions, China would be likely to suffer tremendous losses for trivial gains, at least at first. This would make the CCP appear incompetent and further reduce their military capabilities at exactly the same time that they would be most at risk of internal strife, which no doubt foreign powers would be throwing their full weight behind. No, it makes more sense that China's current posturing is saber rattling meant to stir nationalist sentiment in its own population. It's the same reason for its recent clashing with India and its remarkable recent diplomatic hostility. The last thing it wants or needs is new territory full of independence minded dissidents, but creating external enemies is a classic and often effective play for regimes on rocky ground. While it's always possible that some hawkish firebrand comes to power or there is some major miscommunication that leads to hostility, the CCP and Xi especially have a long track record of pursuing stability above all else, which has honestly been the Chinese goto play for thousands of years. An invasion of Taiwan would be in direct opposition to that goal, and could only end very badly for the CCP and Xi. Perhaps if China survives its demographic crisis it will emerge as a premiere power that can seriously consider such military expeditions, but it'll be dealing with that problem for a generation.

ArkanExplorer 5y ago
China's fertility rate (assuming it is accurate) is excellent by the standards of other high-IQ populations, at 1.69. By contrast, Taiwan is dreadful, at 1.07. Eventually, China will be able to just sail in. The real threat to our chip supplies is that the world will run out of intelligent Taiwanese people to operate TSMC.
- jjk166 5y ago
  The thing about demographics is that it doesn't matter what your fertility rate is now, it matters what it was 20 years ago. The fact is that China's largest cohort turns 31 this year, while it's current military age cohorts are half its size, and shrinking. The cohort turning 18 this year is the smallest since the Great Leap Forward. The next cohort with 10 million males is currently 5 years old, and it is an anomalous blip with the most recent cohort being 20% smaller and near future cohorts undoubtedly to be smaller still due to the decreasing size of their parental cohorts. Your population in their 20s are your soldiers, your baby makers, your first home buyers, your 80 hour a week workers, your pop culture consumers - a sharp drop in their numbers is catastrophic for a nation's geopolitical and economic health. Combined with China's baby boom about to enter their 60s, when their economic productivity will substantially decline and their medical costs will skyrocket, to be supported primarily by weak cohorts 20 years younger it is a terrible position to be in. On top of this, the People's Republic of China is currently 72 years old, for context Russia went 74 years from the abdication of the Tsar to the fall of the Soviet Union, and the average lifetime of China's 49 dynasties has been 70 years. 65 to 75 years is approximately how long the revolution remains in living memory, how long people are still alive who personally remember how bad the previous regime was and thus continue to excuse any faults of the current regime. Once it passes out of living memory, calls for reform become far more intense. This triple whammy is imminent and inescapable. For China to survive, it will have to deal with a shortage of manpower, a dramatic increase in the cost of social services, severe economic contraction, and the reforging of a national identity all at the same time, with a reduced sized military, a large number of young unmarried males with poor prospects, all while under severe external pressure along all fronts. This will be a rough decade for China.