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Yeah and after you have a working $30B fab, how many people are going to follow you to build one? The first one built will get cheaper to run every year - it w
by analognoise 5y ago
Yeah and after you have a working $30B fab, how many people are going to follow you to build one?
The first one built will get cheaper to run every year - it will pay for itself by the time a second company even tries to compete. The first person to the "final" node will have a natural, insurmountable monopoly.
You could extract rent basically forever after that point.
- labawi 5y agoThat's only true if the supply satisfies demand.
- fshbbdssbbgdd 5y agoI thought the drivers of cost are lots of design work, patents, trade secrets etc. involved with each process. If there’s a “final” node, those costs should decrease over time and eventually become more of a commodity.
- atq2119 5y agoI don't think we'll see a final node in our lifetimes. Improvements are slowing down and will become a trickle, but that doesn't mean research stops entirely. Consider other mature technology, like the internal combustion engine. ICEs have been improved continuously, though the changes have become marginal as the technology matured. However, if research and improvements on ICEs ends entirely it's not because the technology has been fully explored but because they're obsoleted by electric cars.