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The Chinese investment of O(millions) into building this road is likely to have a much better economic and political payoff for both China and Afghanistan than

The Chinese investment of O(millions) into building this road is likely to have a much better economic and political payoff for both China and Afghanistan than the O(billions) spent by the US on war in Afghanistan.

dmitriid 5y ago
That's what China is doing: they invest in infrastructure in many countries, and this solves significantly more problems and ties countries to China more deeply than the current vicious circle that Western countries employ: give out large grants and credits to largely corrupt governments, that money gets mostly stolen, give more money (and also more money to cover the interest rates from previous credits), repeat.
- yorwba 5y ago
  China's development finance has had plenty of the same problems, which is why loan volume has drastically dropped since the 2016 peak [1], China adopted debt sustainability criteria similar to those used by World Bank and IMF [2] and the chairman of China Development Bank was relieved of his post and arrested for corruption [3]. [1] https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2020/12/13/scope-and-findings-chinas-overseas-development-finance-database/ https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2020/12/13/scope-and-findings-chinas-... [2] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007714/china-seeks-allay-belt-and-road-debt-trap-concerns-standard https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007714/ch... [3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-bank-idUSKBN2070PA https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-bank-idUSKBN2070PA
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  Chinese investments into infrastructure are hardly corruption-free. Look at the case of the new port in Sri Lanka, which was a fairly obvious debt trap from the beginning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hambantota_International_Port https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hambantota_International_Port Or at the highway in Montenegro, a small and poorish Balkan country that cannot really afford a $1 bn project going through the worst mountainous terrain in Europe. https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1010832606/road-deal-with-china-is-blamed-for-catapulting-montenegro-into-historic-debt https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1010832606/road-deal-with-chi... This kind of bad investments tend to be signed by corrupt politicians and sometimes backfire spectacularly.
  - dnautics 5y ago
    did you not read the article? It is the best road in montenegro.
    - inglor_cz 5y ago
      I can buy a Porsche and have the best car in my neighbourhood, but does it make sense if I go broke from the purchase? Same with Montenegro. The road does not make economic sense, either for Montenegro itself, or for a connection between Belgrade and Bar. The demand that would justify building and maintenance of such a behemoth in the wildest Balkan mountains just isn't there. If the region was flat, there would have been a (much cheaper) highway a long time ago, but it isn't. It is an engineering hell, much like most construction tasks in the mountains. Heck, even California dropped its plans for a bullet train from SF to LA because it was too expensive to cross the mountain ranges that stand in the way. And California is orders of magnitude richer than Montenegro. Mountains are best avoided when building roads. If you absolutely can't, the viability of the project needs a long, hard look.
      - dnautics 5y ago
        Should have put more emphasis on the word "best"
- Bishizel 5y ago
  They also do it via loans, so instead of paying aide every year, they just hold loans over their heads to get those countries to fall in line.
postingawayonhn 5y ago
The US and other donors did try to build some roads but the Taliban weren't that keen on it. https://medium.com/@annetdavid/seeing-it-through-the-afghani-ring-road-af1b61f02800 https://medium.com/@annetdavid/seeing-it-through-the-afghani...
- ReptileMan 5y ago
  Well that is one advantage the Chinese also have. They are ruthless enough to either work with them or wipe them from existence.
  - dnautics 5y ago
    The chinese also have an advantage in that there is no reason for particular islamic solidarity movements that lean violent to target them with terrorist attacks.
    - pfdietz 5y ago
      Why does the situation with the Uighurs not count as a reason?
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
  - throw0101a 5y ago
    > They are ruthless enough to either work with them or wipe them from existence. Were the Soveits/Russians more or less than the Chinese? Were the British in the late 1800s? Alexander the Great? * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herat_Citadel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herat_Citadel
    - dfadsadsf 5y ago
      It was tail end of Soviet Union and at the time Gorbachev was too wimp to shut down protests inside USSR much less being ruthless anywhere. Something like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Chechens_and_Ingush https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Chechens_an... was very doable to do in Afghanistan before recent population explosion and could have pacified the country. Obviously impractical with modern sensibilities and current Afghan population size. What can work to bring country together is ruthless dictator with Stalin, Mao or Ho Chi Min determination. US university professor as president is exactly the wrong person to lead Afghanistan at this moment. If current government falls, Taliban can bring somebody reasonable as head of state and country will evolve to something like Iran. Could be good for everyone involved from Afghan population to other countries.

dmitriid 5y ago

That's what China is doing: they invest in infrastructure in many countries, and this solves significantly more problems and ties countries to China more deeply than the current vicious circle that Western countries employ: give out large grants and credits to largely corrupt governments, that money gets mostly stolen, give more money (and also more money to cover the interest rates from previous credits), repeat.

yorwba 5y ago
China's development finance has had plenty of the same problems, which is why loan volume has drastically dropped since the 2016 peak [1], China adopted debt sustainability criteria similar to those used by World Bank and IMF [2] and the chairman of China Development Bank was relieved of his post and arrested for corruption [3]. [1] https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2020/12/13/scope-and-findings-chinas-overseas-development-finance-database/ https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2020/12/13/scope-and-findings-chinas-... [2] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007714/china-seeks-allay-belt-and-road-debt-trap-concerns-standard https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007714/ch... [3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-bank-idUSKBN2070PA https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-bank-idUSKBN2070PA
inglor_cz 5y ago
Chinese investments into infrastructure are hardly corruption-free. Look at the case of the new port in Sri Lanka, which was a fairly obvious debt trap from the beginning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hambantota_International_Port https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hambantota_International_Port Or at the highway in Montenegro, a small and poorish Balkan country that cannot really afford a $1 bn project going through the worst mountainous terrain in Europe. https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1010832606/road-deal-with-china-is-blamed-for-catapulting-montenegro-into-historic-debt https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1010832606/road-deal-with-chi... This kind of bad investments tend to be signed by corrupt politicians and sometimes backfire spectacularly.
- dnautics 5y ago
  did you not read the article? It is the best road in montenegro.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    I can buy a Porsche and have the best car in my neighbourhood, but does it make sense if I go broke from the purchase? Same with Montenegro. The road does not make economic sense, either for Montenegro itself, or for a connection between Belgrade and Bar. The demand that would justify building and maintenance of such a behemoth in the wildest Balkan mountains just isn't there. If the region was flat, there would have been a (much cheaper) highway a long time ago, but it isn't. It is an engineering hell, much like most construction tasks in the mountains. Heck, even California dropped its plans for a bullet train from SF to LA because it was too expensive to cross the mountain ranges that stand in the way. And California is orders of magnitude richer than Montenegro. Mountains are best avoided when building roads. If you absolutely can't, the viability of the project needs a long, hard look.
    - dnautics 5y ago
      Should have put more emphasis on the word "best"
Bishizel 5y ago
They also do it via loans, so instead of paying aide every year, they just hold loans over their heads to get those countries to fall in line.

postingawayonhn 5y ago

The US and other donors did try to build some roads but the Taliban weren't that keen on it. https://medium.com/@annetdavid/seeing-it-through-the-afghani-ring-road-af1b61f02800 https://medium.com/@annetdavid/seeing-it-through-the-afghani...

ReptileMan 5y ago
Well that is one advantage the Chinese also have. They are ruthless enough to either work with them or wipe them from existence.
- dnautics 5y ago
  The chinese also have an advantage in that there is no reason for particular islamic solidarity movements that lean violent to target them with terrorist attacks.
  - pfdietz 5y ago
    Why does the situation with the Uighurs not count as a reason?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- throw0101a 5y ago
  > They are ruthless enough to either work with them or wipe them from existence. Were the Soveits/Russians more or less than the Chinese? Were the British in the late 1800s? Alexander the Great? * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herat_Citadel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herat_Citadel
  - dfadsadsf 5y ago
    It was tail end of Soviet Union and at the time Gorbachev was too wimp to shut down protests inside USSR much less being ruthless anywhere. Something like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Chechens_and_Ingush https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Chechens_an... was very doable to do in Afghanistan before recent population explosion and could have pacified the country. Obviously impractical with modern sensibilities and current Afghan population size. What can work to bring country together is ruthless dictator with Stalin, Mao or Ho Chi Min determination. US university professor as president is exactly the wrong person to lead Afghanistan at this moment. If current government falls, Taliban can bring somebody reasonable as head of state and country will evolve to something like Iran. Could be good for everyone involved from Afghan population to other countries.