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The quest to come up with a narrative for why Covid happened reminds me of the reporting when Katrina hit New Orleans. The city's vulnerability was known befor

The quest to come up with a narrative for why Covid happened reminds me of the reporting when Katrina hit New Orleans. The city's vulnerability was known beforehand [0] but the inevitable disaster was greeted with shock, confusion, and a search for peripheral explanations. In the case of the pandemic, our vulnerability to zoonotic viruses and other diseases was also well-known; e.g. [1] was published in 1995. But again the reporting, as it seems to me anyway, focuses on the particular circumstances of the disaster rather than our fundamental vulnerability. There is a plentiful supply of unknown microorganisms to fuel the next global health crisis, and we need to expect and prepare for it so that next time we can prevail without great struggle. [0] https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/predicting-katrina/ https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/predicting-katrina/ [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/46722.The_Coming_Plague https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/46722.The_Coming_Plague

Closi 5y ago
I think part of the quest is about deciding if gain-of-function research is safe and should be allowed in the future. If it happens to be the root cause, no doubt there will be a huge change in how it is carried out, if not outright banned. If it is proven to not be the cause, it will be easier to argue that it can be safe.
- hef19898 5y ago
  To be honest, I never really bought into the lab escape theory. Still really don't, with all the investigations going on I am willing to consider it as an alternative. Thing is, I have yet to see a timeline, starting with the earliest cases elsewhere, and a summary of the genetic research into COVID-19. Without having the time, and knowledge, to deep dive into the studies I jave to rely on news reports. And those, IMHO, are more about creating clicks than really informing people. Curious to see what comes of that so. Not that it would change a lot in term of fighting the pandemic, we have working vaccines by now. The narrative will change a lot, so. And with all the mask clusterfuck still going on, I don't think the narrative will be good.
  - exdsq 5y ago
    Interesting - I've been thinking it's the obvious case for a year now since I first read about it. Just too many coincidences and a lack of evidence for any of the alternatives to disprove the lab hypothesis has come up since.
    - jhgb 5y ago
      > a lack of evidence for any of the alternatives to disprove the lab hypothesis I'm not sure that "disprove my wild hypothesis" is how proving things works.
      - salawat 5y ago
        When nothing has a smoking gun, and you've got volumes more circumstantial evidence for one thing than another, it does not serve one well to stick their head in the sand and not move forward under the assumption both can be right. When you run into massive resistance to doing so, it only points one in the direction that there may be more to be uncovered in one direction than another. >Come on in guys, let's compare notes research wise! Would have done volumes more to defuse suspicions than nothing but stonewalling and saber rattling.
        jhgb 5y ago
        Smoking gun in the original SARS took 15 years to find and it was found in bats in a cave 1100 km away from the first outbreak. What exactly are you expecting two years into this outbreak? The "circumstantial evidence" is that pretty much all recent new infectious diseases in humans were traced to animals in the wild, or alternatively, sometimes not traced anywhere at all (Hepatitis C, anyone?). "Yes, but this one is special!", conspiracy theorists swear. Sure, Jan.
        Closi 5y ago
        Eh, I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss it. One analogy I heard recently is that lots of people get covered in paint worldwide, but if you see 10 people covered in paint right next to the dulux paint factory, you should probably consider the likelihood it came from there, even if the paint factory denies it. Let’s not forget that we are talking about the outbreak being right next to a lab which was known to have inadequate safety precautions which was trying to make bat coronaviruses jump species. We are also talking about a strain that, if it began in a lab with inadequate safety standards, could have very easily escaped due to its high infectiousness and low detectability due to asymptomatic carriers. Might we find it in a cave? Of course. Might we find it started in WIV? Of course. The only people I personally think are silly are people that outright dismiss either option.
tim333 5y ago
As an aside the Katrina stuff was odd - I was in Ireland watching cable (CNN I think) and for 48 hrs or so they'd been going on about New Orleans was likely to flood, on repeat, at least hourly, so I thought I'd get the popcorn and watch (I didn't think it'd be that bad). Then it flooded. Then Bush popped up saying no one could have predicted it would flood. Strange - guess he didn't have CNN. The lab leak reporting is also odd. When it first happened my initial thought was natural, then when it came out it was next to a lab doing gain of function type experiments on coronaviruses and hundreds of miles from the bats I thought ah likely a lab screw up. This was around feb 2020 that the info came out. But then the press has done a year of lab leaks are mad, possibly racist, conspiracy theories and then a couple of months of it's likely a lab leak, all based on basically the same facts. Also odd.
- jhgb 5y ago
  For comparison, SARS was first identified here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foshan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foshan) and fifteen years later a tentative source in wild was finally found here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiyang_Yi_Ethnic_Township https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiyang_Yi_Ethnic_Township). The distance between the two places is around 1100 km. Was that a lab leak as well? And pray tell, from which lab did it escape?
kjaftaedi 5y ago
The vulnerability in this analogy is scientists working with viruses in BSL-2 conditions. I would argue this was not a widely known fact. It's difficult to prepare for the next disaster if you're not willing to explore the previous one.

Closi 5y ago

I think part of the quest is about deciding if gain-of-function research is safe and should be allowed in the future. If it happens to be the root cause, no doubt there will be a huge change in how it is carried out, if not outright banned. If it is proven to not be the cause, it will be easier to argue that it can be safe.

hef19898 5y ago
To be honest, I never really bought into the lab escape theory. Still really don't, with all the investigations going on I am willing to consider it as an alternative. Thing is, I have yet to see a timeline, starting with the earliest cases elsewhere, and a summary of the genetic research into COVID-19. Without having the time, and knowledge, to deep dive into the studies I jave to rely on news reports. And those, IMHO, are more about creating clicks than really informing people. Curious to see what comes of that so. Not that it would change a lot in term of fighting the pandemic, we have working vaccines by now. The narrative will change a lot, so. And with all the mask clusterfuck still going on, I don't think the narrative will be good.
- exdsq 5y ago
  Interesting - I've been thinking it's the obvious case for a year now since I first read about it. Just too many coincidences and a lack of evidence for any of the alternatives to disprove the lab hypothesis has come up since.
  - jhgb 5y ago
    > a lack of evidence for any of the alternatives to disprove the lab hypothesis I'm not sure that "disprove my wild hypothesis" is how proving things works.
    - salawat 5y ago
      When nothing has a smoking gun, and you've got volumes more circumstantial evidence for one thing than another, it does not serve one well to stick their head in the sand and not move forward under the assumption both can be right. When you run into massive resistance to doing so, it only points one in the direction that there may be more to be uncovered in one direction than another. >Come on in guys, let's compare notes research wise! Would have done volumes more to defuse suspicions than nothing but stonewalling and saber rattling.
      - jhgb 5y ago
        Smoking gun in the original SARS took 15 years to find and it was found in bats in a cave 1100 km away from the first outbreak. What exactly are you expecting two years into this outbreak? The "circumstantial evidence" is that pretty much all recent new infectious diseases in humans were traced to animals in the wild, or alternatively, sometimes not traced anywhere at all (Hepatitis C, anyone?). "Yes, but this one is special!", conspiracy theorists swear. Sure, Jan.
        Closi 5y ago
        Eh, I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss it. One analogy I heard recently is that lots of people get covered in paint worldwide, but if you see 10 people covered in paint right next to the dulux paint factory, you should probably consider the likelihood it came from there, even if the paint factory denies it. Let’s not forget that we are talking about the outbreak being right next to a lab which was known to have inadequate safety precautions which was trying to make bat coronaviruses jump species. We are also talking about a strain that, if it began in a lab with inadequate safety standards, could have very easily escaped due to its high infectiousness and low detectability due to asymptomatic carriers. Might we find it in a cave? Of course. Might we find it started in WIV? Of course. The only people I personally think are silly are people that outright dismiss either option.

tim333 5y ago

As an aside the Katrina stuff was odd - I was in Ireland watching cable (CNN I think) and for 48 hrs or so they'd been going on about New Orleans was likely to flood, on repeat, at least hourly, so I thought I'd get the popcorn and watch (I didn't think it'd be that bad). Then it flooded. Then Bush popped up saying no one could have predicted it would flood. Strange - guess he didn't have CNN. The lab leak reporting is also odd. When it first happened my initial thought was natural, then when it came out it was next to a lab doing gain of function type experiments on coronaviruses and hundreds of miles from the bats I thought ah likely a lab screw up. This was around feb 2020 that the info came out. But then the press has done a year of lab leaks are mad, possibly racist, conspiracy theories and then a couple of months of it's likely a lab leak, all based on basically the same facts. Also odd.

jhgb 5y ago
For comparison, SARS was first identified here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foshan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foshan) and fifteen years later a tentative source in wild was finally found here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiyang_Yi_Ethnic_Township https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiyang_Yi_Ethnic_Township). The distance between the two places is around 1100 km. Was that a lab leak as well? And pray tell, from which lab did it escape?

kjaftaedi 5y ago

The vulnerability in this analogy is scientists working with viruses in BSL-2 conditions. I would argue this was not a widely known fact. It's difficult to prepare for the next disaster if you're not willing to explore the previous one.