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Tesla Q2 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
- nabla9 5y ago2021 is critical for Tesla. They still make all their profits from selling regulatory credits to other manufacturers. More they make cars, more they sell credits. FCA / PSA Group, Fiat Chrysler, GM, Volkswagen are buying ZEV credits from Tesla, but there are so many fully electric cars coming to mass market in 2022 (like F-150) that the ZEV revenue for Tesla dries up fast. Tesla's Regulatory Credit Revenue Will Rise Again In 2021 https://insideevs.com/news/482452/tesla-revenue-emissions-credit-boost/ https://insideevs.com/news/482452/tesla-revenue-emissions-cr... Tesla is selling electric car credits to Volkswagen in China https://electrek.co/2021/04/01/tesla-selling-electric-car-credits-volkswagen-china/ https://electrek.co/2021/04/01/tesla-selling-electric-car-cr...
- toomuchtodo 5y agoEvery year we hear Tesla is going broke for the last ~10 years. Every year they survive. Regulatory credits are a legitimate revenue source as long as governments require legacy automakers buy them (who are profitable because they sell combustion vehicles without the externalities of burning fossil fuels captured in costs and prices). They’re growing units sold almost 100% year over year. Markets don’t care if one thinks regulatory credits are a handout (they’re not, they level the playing field against combustion vehicles). May they extract every bit they can to accelerate the electrification of transportation. (no financial interest in TSLA besides being a customer)
- borski 5y agoAdmittedly, not wanting them to go broke because you're a customer is an important financial interest, but I agree with the rest of your point.
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- toomuchtodo 5y agoTo be frank, I couldn’t care less about our Tesla vehicles. I have kids, and climate change is coming. That is an existential concern, and why Tesla can’t yet go bust. Only when a tipping point has been reached and combustion vehicles can no longer be built because manufacturing has retooled, supply chains have been reconfigured, and petroleum supply infra enters a death spiral can Tesla financially fail and the repercussions would be muted.
- bryanlarsen 5y agoTesla has $20B in the bank. They aren't going broke any time soon.
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- nabla9 5y agoI think you are projecting something negative to my comment. I was simply analyzing the situation. Billion in revenue/car is going away. Tesla should easily survive by diluting stocks. If you think in numbers, it's clear that current valuation of Tesla is not coming from selling cars unless Tesla takes 40% of the car market in next 10-15 years. You need to add Tesla is an energy company or something else into the mix.
- missedthecue 5y agoWhen you can sell $5b in stock to the market any time you want and raise infinite capital, it's hard to go bankrupt
- bryanlarsen 5y agoIf you exclude non-recurring revenue like the regulatory credits, you should also exclude non-recurring expenses like Musk's stock grants. Especially given that the stock grants don't cost Tesla cash. IOW, Tesla is profitable with or without the regulatory credits.
- feifan 5y agoThis line of thinking very likely has the causation backwards — Tesla is a complex-enough business that they can determine how much they're gonna make in regulatory credits, and then turn opex up or down accordingly, with profit being a downstream effect of that decision.
- spywaregorilla 5y agoYour own article link is very positive on the future of regulatory credit sales > Tesla is on a roll selling emissions credits to other automakers, and the end certainly isn't in sight. > According to Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy, regulatory credit revenue is poised to grow to $2 billion in 2021 compared to the $1.4 billion in 2020 > Levy believes the future will continue to look positive for Tesla, pointing to Europe's stricter emissions standards as one reason. While we don't know for sure how things might look in the US under the new Biden administration, just about everything points to huge support for electric cars.
- nickik 5y agoGovernment requirements are continuing get more and more difficult and because Tesla is producing more cars, even if the price of regulatory credits drop they might get more money from it. And what really matter is automotive unit margin and Tesla is doing well there even without regulatory revenue taken into account.
- slownews45 5y agoThis is a bit of a trope with Tesla. "Roadster sales will be limited by market" -> they then do S. S sales ... they do Y and 3. Car sales... -> they do battery storage. Let me posit another possibility. Biden admin brings back a $7,500 credit for all US mfg's of EV's. Or someone sticks a major gas tax on things. Or a carbon tax. Etc etc -> there are things out there that might improve tesla sales (for me it would be adding Apple Carplay). These complaints about tesla assume tesla is not smart / able to change what they do, but they are probably TO flexible, and will almost certainly change.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoProfits are increasing much faster than ZEV credits. It's just icing on the cake.
- maxdo 5y agotheir factories will go in 2023 from investment phase into extraction. Also 2023 will be the first year to give them benefits from their own battery tech. 2023 will be still a year tesla can sell as much as they can produce batteries. Due to enormous demand for Cybertruck, Semi, lower prices in EU
- sharken 5y agoTesla has still not opened up their Supercharger network, they are the last major provider who has not done this. Apparently the terms offered by Tesla is unacceptable, it is hard to see the EU keep on accepting this state of affairs. It does look like this might change in September 2022 in Norway, which in my opinion is very late. Source: https://electrek.co/2021/06/24/tesla-confirms-plan-open-supercharger-network-other-automakers-next-year/ https://electrek.co/2021/06/24/tesla-confirms-plan-open-supe... Germany also wants to open up the Supercharger network: https://www.torquenews.com/13417/german-minister-wants-tesla-open-their-supercharger-network-all-evs https://www.torquenews.com/13417/german-minister-wants-tesla...
- maxdo 5y agoHonestly, as an owner of tesla, I don't want network to be open, tesla has enough volume to keep their own charges loaded. I paid my premium to be able to charge anywhere I want. I went to a camping destination 3h away from new york? No problem 20 minutes before camping, in the mountains, I have supercharger . Now, imagine some nissan leaf with slow charging capabilities will take my spot? Why Tesla should solve problems of companies who doesn't want to invest enough money? If you look at the price nissan leaf versus model 3 , they have $4-5k gap. That's a lot of money, but people understand that and vote with their wallets. You can see tesla model 3/Y on every traffic light, not Nissan leaf. I call it fair competition :)
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoWhy open up their chargers if other cars charge much slower than Teslas? You'd have Tesla owners queuing in for a quick charges while a slow charging EV is taking a loong time to charge the same energy. Tesla should wait until the other cars are almost as fast to charge as Tesla to share their network. This has nothing to do with pricing but availability of chargers for customers who paid Tesla to access to this service.
- ortusdux 5y agoIn context - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timeline_of_production_and_sales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timelin... Looks like ~9% bump over last quarter, and double 2020 Q2.
- neogodless 5y agoContext is key. Overall EV adoption is what I want to see growing. https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/insights/2021/electric-vehicle-sales-review-q2.html https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/insights/2021/electric... In Europe: > BEV sales were up by 80% compared to Q1 2020, and PHEVs by 184%. The respective market shares were 6.7% and 7.4% respectively, compared to 3.8% and 2.6% in Q1 2020, and 1.2% and 0.8% in Q1 2019 - strong proof of continued, accelerating growth. And USA: > BEVs recorded a market share of 2.1% in January, an almost twofold increase from 1.1% in the equivalent month last year. Another set of charts: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/27/market-share-of-electric-vehicles-changes-in-8-top-countries/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/27/market-share-of-electri... Also shows Tesla over time: https://cleantechnica.com/ev-sales-charts-graphs-stats/ https://cleantechnica.com/ev-sales-charts-graphs-stats/ In Europe, only the Renault Zoe outsold the Tesla Model 3 in 2020. Globally, the Tesla Model 3 has a big lead.
- maxdo 5y agoonce they'll start producing cars in Berlin, the price will become more competitive , they'll have a huge boost of sales.
- ortusdux 5y agoIt will be fascinating to see what the impact of the electric F150 and Tesla's increased battery production will be over the next few years. Does anyone know where Ford is sourcing their batteries from?
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoBump of 9% without S and X sales (production lines halted due to the revamp).
- cs702 5y agoVehicles Vehicles Produced Delivered Q2 2020 [a] 82,272 90,650 Q2 2021 206,421 201,250 Annual change +150.9% +122.0% Wow, Tesla more than doubled its vehicle business over the past year. The run rate is on track to surpass 1M vehicles/year before the end of 2021. -- [a] Estimates from a year ago: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-pro...
- mips_avatar 5y agoThe drop in Model S/X sales is huge (17,650 2019 Q2 -> 2340 2021 Q2). I'm sure buyer are just preferring the newer model 3/Y, and the total sales have grown a lot. But the Fremont plant producing S/X really isn't producing much. Edit: Turns out the shift is just a retooling
- vpj 5y agoI guess most people were waiting for the Plaid
- mrfusion 5y agoYou’re saying basically 17k to 2k??
- nickik 5y agoIts because they renewed the model and they can't produce anywhere close to that many of the new ones. The 2340 are basically all S, X is not being produced. I will like not go up to peak, but it will be much higher then it is now.
- blendergeek 5y agoTesla actually halted production of the S/X for most of the first half of 2021 as they retool for the Plaid Model S/X.
- GhostVII 5y agoNot particularly surprising given that Model S production was shut down for almost all of H1 to switch over to the refresh.
- linsomniac 5y agoModel S production line was turned off for much of the quarter because of retooling and switching to the refreshed "Plaid" model.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoThey just couldn't produce enough due the the revamp and some missing parts. And the once they produced couldn't all be delivered in time before end of Q.* The X production line was off for the full quarter, and the S has just restarted. Try ordering an S/X and see the delivery ETA!
- Someone1234 5y agoI wonder when (or if?) we'll see scale result in lower pricing. The M3 was originally meant to be Tesla's "affordable" vehicle, but it currently costs $42K base ($39,990 + $1,200 dest. & doc) with no tax incentives at all. That isn't affordable, that is lower end luxury. A plug-in Prius Prime starts at $29,215 (inc. dest. & doc) but has $4,502 in federal tax incentives. Also, if I have $42K to spend on an electric vehicle why wouldn't I buy a Ford Lightning instead of a sedan? The Lightning isn't even more expensive in its class of vehicles (short-bed trucks), whereas the Tesla Model 3 is $15K more than its class (mid-size sedans).
- dartdartdart 5y agoPrius Prime is THE vehicle for people who care more about the environment than electric luxury, which Tesla serves.
- Scott_Sanderson 5y agoNissan Leaf tho
- Forbo 5y agoThere are many PHEV out there with much better all-electric range. 25 miles is a pittance.
- justinc-md 5y agoSome time after they can't generate 122.0% year-on-year growth without lowering prices?
- spywaregorilla 5y agoNot while they're selling out every car they can manufacture at higher prices.
- dlp211 5y agoThe Ford Lightning is going to be the best selling electric vehicle in America in 2025 (+/- 2 years) and beyond. The only way this doesn't happen is if Ford doesn't produce enough. If Ford can meet demand, by 2030, the Ford Lightning will be the best selling vehicle in America.
- bryanlarsen 5y agoIn related news, Mach-E sales are up 27% in a single month (June vs May). That's 2,465 vehicles for the month of June. Still a long ways to go to catch Tesla, but they are accelerating quickly.
- MrRiddle 5y agoIf I ever wanted a car that can burn at thousands of degrees that can't be put out by local fire department while having a button for a doorknob I would definitely buy a Tesla.