4 ms·

> ... For three deaths prevented by vaccination we have to accept two inflicted by vaccination. Conclusions: This lack of clear benefit should cause governments

> ... For three deaths prevented by vaccination we have to accept two inflicted by vaccination. Conclusions: This lack of clear benefit should cause governments to rethink their vaccination policy. I have three problems with this statement: (a) I always thought COVID anti-measures including vaccinations are not about death rates but mainly about the "flattening the curve" and protecting our health systems from collapsing, which would result in many more deaths. (b) Deaths vs. "inflicted": How is this a good comparison? The consequence of death is clear, what does inflicted mean here? (c) Deaths vs. "inflicted": Are those who barely survived or who have long COVID not inflicted? What's the ratio then? Last but not least: It is always easy to say this is bad without giving an alternative solution. What's the alternative to vaccinations? Having COVID spread without controlling it? Or having masks and contact reductions forever?

aj3 5y ago
I think they mean "death prevented" vs "death inflicted".
amluto 5y ago
> (a) I always thought COVID anti-measures including vaccinations are not about death rates but mainly about the "flattening the curve" and protecting our health systems from collapsing, which would result in many more deaths. What do you mean? In the absence of vaccines or any reason to believe that a vastly more effective treatment would arrive, masks and lockdowns “flatten the curve” in the sense that they primarily defer disease, not prevent it. (Major exception: if lockdowns actually eradicated COVID, it would be all over. A few countries pulled this off, but this is only a long term solution if it worked everywhere.) Vaccines, however, assuming they work as well as the measles vaccine, prevent deaths outright. Vaccinate 5% of the population and you will reduce the eventual number of severe disease cases and deaths (and long COVID?) by something around 5%. (Maybe more like 2.5% if efficacy is on the low end.). Vaccinate 95% of the population and COVID will resemble measles: a few localized outbreaks will still occur, but most people will never be exposed, let alone get sick.
- shoto_io 5y ago
  I agree with everything you say. What I’m saying is different though. I’m arguing that even if COVID had a 0 death rate but the same hospitalization rate and severity, we’d still be vaccinating everyone. Because we decided to protect our health care system.
  - amluto 5y ago
    Indeed.
- mikem170 5y ago
  > if lockdowns actually eradicated COVID, it would be all over. A few countries pulled this off, but this is only a long term solution if it worked everywhere I just wanted to note that COVID cannot be eradicated unless we also eradicate it from all animal populations that can carry it, such as cats, dogs, ferrets, fruit bats, gorillas, hamsters, minks, sea otters, pumas, snow leopards, tigers, and tree shrews [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_animals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemi...
ekianjo 5y ago
> What's the alternative to vaccinations? It's not like there is no effective treatment in case you are infected. After all, we did quite a few clinical trials in the past year, and it's kind of surprising the answer is "let's just do mass vaccinations and nothing else"
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- bart_spoon 5y ago
  I don't think anyone is suggesting vaccines are the end all-be-all regarding the pandemic. Vaccines are the first line of defense, with treatments being for those who still manage to get sick. These treatments aren't an alternative to vaccines, they are a complement. That's like saying seatbelts are an alternative to traffic laws.
  - effie 5y ago
    > I don't think anyone is suggesting vaccines are the end all-be-all regarding the pandemic. Many states and health institutions behave as this was the case.
    - rualca 5y ago
      Many states, such as Spain, are already pretending that COVID does not exist because of their vaccination rollout plan in spite of their rollout plan only recently started vaccinating 40yo with their first dose.
- shoto_io 5y ago
  Even with an effective treatment, you would need to (a) either impose strict lockdown rules or (b) accept a meltdown of the healthcare system without a vaccine. What would you choose?
  - ekianjo 5y ago
    i fail to see any medical system collapse happening anywhere these days and lockdowns have hardly shown any effectiveness as people still gather anyway and nothing is really enforced. Look at LA lockdowns and good luck trying to see where they started and ended if you look at the number of infections over time.

aj3 5y ago

I think they mean "death prevented" vs "death inflicted".

amluto 5y ago

> (a) I always thought COVID anti-measures including vaccinations are not about death rates but mainly about the "flattening the curve" and protecting our health systems from collapsing, which would result in many more deaths. What do you mean? In the absence of vaccines or any reason to believe that a vastly more effective treatment would arrive, masks and lockdowns “flatten the curve” in the sense that they primarily defer disease, not prevent it. (Major exception: if lockdowns actually eradicated COVID, it would be all over. A few countries pulled this off, but this is only a long term solution if it worked everywhere.) Vaccines, however, assuming they work as well as the measles vaccine, prevent deaths outright. Vaccinate 5% of the population and you will reduce the eventual number of severe disease cases and deaths (and long COVID?) by something around 5%. (Maybe more like 2.5% if efficacy is on the low end.). Vaccinate 95% of the population and COVID will resemble measles: a few localized outbreaks will still occur, but most people will never be exposed, let alone get sick.

shoto_io 5y ago
I agree with everything you say. What I’m saying is different though. I’m arguing that even if COVID had a 0 death rate but the same hospitalization rate and severity, we’d still be vaccinating everyone. Because we decided to protect our health care system.
- amluto 5y ago
  Indeed.
mikem170 5y ago
> if lockdowns actually eradicated COVID, it would be all over. A few countries pulled this off, but this is only a long term solution if it worked everywhere I just wanted to note that COVID cannot be eradicated unless we also eradicate it from all animal populations that can carry it, such as cats, dogs, ferrets, fruit bats, gorillas, hamsters, minks, sea otters, pumas, snow leopards, tigers, and tree shrews [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_animals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemi...

ekianjo 5y ago

> What's the alternative to vaccinations? It's not like there is no effective treatment in case you are infected. After all, we did quite a few clinical trials in the past year, and it's kind of surprising the answer is "let's just do mass vaccinations and nothing else"

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
bart_spoon 5y ago
I don't think anyone is suggesting vaccines are the end all-be-all regarding the pandemic. Vaccines are the first line of defense, with treatments being for those who still manage to get sick. These treatments aren't an alternative to vaccines, they are a complement. That's like saying seatbelts are an alternative to traffic laws.
- effie 5y ago
  > I don't think anyone is suggesting vaccines are the end all-be-all regarding the pandemic. Many states and health institutions behave as this was the case.
  - rualca 5y ago
    Many states, such as Spain, are already pretending that COVID does not exist because of their vaccination rollout plan in spite of their rollout plan only recently started vaccinating 40yo with their first dose.
shoto_io 5y ago
Even with an effective treatment, you would need to (a) either impose strict lockdown rules or (b) accept a meltdown of the healthcare system without a vaccine. What would you choose?
- ekianjo 5y ago
  i fail to see any medical system collapse happening anywhere these days and lockdowns have hardly shown any effectiveness as people still gather anyway and nothing is really enforced. Look at LA lockdowns and good luck trying to see where they started and ended if you look at the number of infections over time.