6 ms·

I think I use the scientific method a lot, and dismissing a possible theory as "extremist conspiracy" before having all the answers is very unscientific, especi

I think I use the scientific method a lot, and dismissing a possible theory as "extremist conspiracy" before having all the answers is very unscientific, especially if the other theory (zoonotic spread) doesn't have bulletproof evidence yet. The fact that some scientists signed up to the zoonotic theory and dismissed the lab leak theory is weird, and the fact that social media banned the links means their censorship is flawed. Then again, too many idiots think proof means "The CCP notoriously likes to hide stuff, therefore they're hiding the lab leak, therefore the lab leak theory is real, QED". That sort of disinformation does deserve a ban. Now watch this comment get downvoted for... not following the herd?

AussieWog93 5y ago
>Now watch this comment get downvoted for... not following the herd? Come on man, don't be like that. You're basically asking people to give you upvotes.
skissane 5y ago
> Then again, too many idiots think proof means "The CCP notoriously likes to hide stuff, therefore they're hiding the lab leak, therefore the lab leak theory is real, QED". That sort of disinformation does deserve a ban. "The CCP notoriously likes to hide stuff, which makes it more likely that they're hiding the lab leak, which makes it more likely that the lab leak theory is true" isn't that far off but seems much more reasonable. Should we ban people for making strawman arguments, or should we steelman their argument in response?
- bellyfullofbac 5y ago
  > which makes it more likely that they're hiding the lab leak, which makes it more likely that the lab leak theory is true. Geezus Christ, just as I'm talking about scientific thinking and lack of it. No and no! It's possible, but they're not more likely! Why they don't want Western investigators free reign investigating the lab? Imagine if the WHO asked the US to let in Chinese investigators in their virology labs. Maybe they're hiding bio-weapons research, or cancer research that they want bragging rights for, but it doesn't automatically mean there's the "Covid smoking gun" being hidden there. It's possible, but them being cagey doesn't make it more possible.
  - skissane 5y ago
    If someone has a track record of hiding stuff, that fact makes it more likely [0] they are actually hiding something. It doesn’t definitively prove they are hiding anything in particular; something being more likely is compatible with it being false. And saying “more likely” is saying nothing about how much more likely; it could just be slightly more likely. I don’t see how saying that is a “lack of scientific thinking”. I think that criticism is just false. [0] “more likely” is talking about epistemic probability, Bayesian probability
    - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
      > If someone has a track record of hiding stuff, that fact makes it more likely [0] they are actually hiding something. That's a tautology. So what, what if someone came with a theory that the virus comes from meteorite that people from this lab had been researching? Does their cageyness mean more likely that the meteorite theory is true? Geez...
      - fighterpilot 5y ago
        You're attempting a reductio ad absurdum but it's not valid because the meteorite has a tiny prior probability of being true, whereas the lab leak doesn't have such a tiny prior due to historical precedent of it happening a number of times, even if it is much less likely to be true as the zoonotic origin explanation in the case of COVID.
        skissane 5y ago
        Thank you. I think this discussion makes more sense if one has a basic understanding of Bayesianism – one starts with a prior probability, one then has various pieces of evidence and associated conditional probabilities than one uses to update that probability, and then one arrives at a posterior probability after updating based on those pieces of evidence. I was talking about the conditional probability for one particular piece of evidence; I was never saying anything about the prior or posterior probability. Obviously you, and others, get this, but it seems bellyfullofbac doesn't.

AussieWog93 5y ago

>Now watch this comment get downvoted for... not following the herd? Come on man, don't be like that. You're basically asking people to give you upvotes.

skissane 5y ago

> Then again, too many idiots think proof means "The CCP notoriously likes to hide stuff, therefore they're hiding the lab leak, therefore the lab leak theory is real, QED". That sort of disinformation does deserve a ban. "The CCP notoriously likes to hide stuff, which makes it more likely that they're hiding the lab leak, which makes it more likely that the lab leak theory is true" isn't that far off but seems much more reasonable. Should we ban people for making strawman arguments, or should we steelman their argument in response?

bellyfullofbac 5y ago
> which makes it more likely that they're hiding the lab leak, which makes it more likely that the lab leak theory is true. Geezus Christ, just as I'm talking about scientific thinking and lack of it. No and no! It's possible, but they're not more likely! Why they don't want Western investigators free reign investigating the lab? Imagine if the WHO asked the US to let in Chinese investigators in their virology labs. Maybe they're hiding bio-weapons research, or cancer research that they want bragging rights for, but it doesn't automatically mean there's the "Covid smoking gun" being hidden there. It's possible, but them being cagey doesn't make it more possible.
- skissane 5y ago
  If someone has a track record of hiding stuff, that fact makes it more likely [0] they are actually hiding something. It doesn’t definitively prove they are hiding anything in particular; something being more likely is compatible with it being false. And saying “more likely” is saying nothing about how much more likely; it could just be slightly more likely. I don’t see how saying that is a “lack of scientific thinking”. I think that criticism is just false. [0] “more likely” is talking about epistemic probability, Bayesian probability
  - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
    > If someone has a track record of hiding stuff, that fact makes it more likely [0] they are actually hiding something. That's a tautology. So what, what if someone came with a theory that the virus comes from meteorite that people from this lab had been researching? Does their cageyness mean more likely that the meteorite theory is true? Geez...
    - fighterpilot 5y ago
      You're attempting a reductio ad absurdum but it's not valid because the meteorite has a tiny prior probability of being true, whereas the lab leak doesn't have such a tiny prior due to historical precedent of it happening a number of times, even if it is much less likely to be true as the zoonotic origin explanation in the case of COVID.
      - skissane 5y ago
        Thank you. I think this discussion makes more sense if one has a basic understanding of Bayesianism – one starts with a prior probability, one then has various pieces of evidence and associated conditional probabilities than one uses to update that probability, and then one arrives at a posterior probability after updating based on those pieces of evidence. I was talking about the conditional probability for one particular piece of evidence; I was never saying anything about the prior or posterior probability. Obviously you, and others, get this, but it seems bellyfullofbac doesn't.