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Why are you assuming this is climate change driven? I am seeing this on a lot of social media comments and in news articles, but scientists have not proven a li

Why are you assuming this is climate change driven? I am seeing this on a lot of social media comments and in news articles, but scientists have not proven a link to climate change in any statistically trustworthy manner. Cliff Mass, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Washington and chief scientist of the Northwest Modeling Consortium mentioned in his recent blog posts that the heat wave was a perfect storm of factors like compression from sinking air coming off the West slopes of the Cascades. He also specifically noted (https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/incredible-temperatures-are-being.html https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/incredible-temperatur...): > Is global warming contributing to this heatwave? The answer is certainly yes. Would we have had a record heatwave without global warming. The answer is yes as well. He also said in the same article: > Let me end with the golden rule of temperature extremes: the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming. Think about that. I think this event has yet to be fully explored and scientifically analyzed, but currently it looks like this is a rare 1 in 1000 years event that could have occurred with or without climate change. In the past we would have written this event off as an anomaly, a record setting event that stands out but isn't the norm. But now it seems like people are very quick to shout 'climate change' for literally any kind of weather anomaly and I am trying to understand why.

Judgmentality 5y ago
> But now it seems like people are very quick to shout 'climate change' for literally any kind of weather anomaly and I am trying to understand why. I admittedly haven't done a statistical analysis, but aren't these "anomalies" happening significantly more frequently than before?
- throwawaysea 5y ago
  In Seattle, which was one of the cities affected by this event (also on the West side of the Cascade mountain range), the previous days with triple digit temperatures occurred in 2009, 1994, and 1941. The earlier parts of this season were actually cooler than usual, and drier than usual. You would often see posts about having the coolest day in X years from weather posts (example: https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1401722154157187073 https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1401722154157187073).
- kecupochren 5y ago
  Anecdotal but there was recently a tornado in Czechia. That's just nuts for such a region. I suspect the rate at which these anomalies will be happening will surprise many.
  - pphysch 5y ago
    Counter anecdote: the last tornado event in mountainous Salt Lake City, Utah was in 1999.
    - kingofpandora 5y ago
      Is that a counter anecdote or a supporting anecdote?
  - guerrilla 5y ago
    and big floods in southern Germany and a record heat wave in Sweden at the same time.
  - Applejinx 5y ago
    That is literally what you get when you pump more energy into a titanic chaotic system with more possible energy than any human war could inflict. When you boost the amount of energy in the system it's further destabilized and the amount of violence unleashed is well beyond the worst we can do with bombs and weapons of war. I'm not surprised. I've been saying this for years, along with many people who understood that climate was a chaotic system. People just do not understand what's happening.
manmal 5y ago
If there is no conclusive evidence towards either side, then why not choose the side more likely to protect humanity from further harm?
- doytch 5y ago
  You can be in favour of major surgery on our civilisation to get to net-zero in order prevent climate change, and still think that this event was likely not caused by climate change.
  - manmal 5y ago
    And what would make me think that - the mere possibility of it being true is not a compelling argument.
- seneca 5y ago
  > If there is no conclusive evidence towards either side, then why not choose the side more likely to protect humanity from further harm? Yes, completely agreed! Now we just have to figure out which side that is. Put another way, you'll go a long way towards wisdom when you realize both sides of most arguments believe they are arguing for what is genuinely the best option, including what will protect humanity. I'm not a client change denier, but it's silly to argue "why don't you just do what is clearly right?" in pretty much any disagreement.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    That's trivial: check which side is lining their pockets, then choose the other.
    - Apes 5y ago
      Ah, the ol' "a perfect world is one where I pull everyone down to my level" logic.
    - bdamm 5y ago
      Which side is that, exactly? On one hand we have big oil and pretty much every industrial polluter globally, and on the other hand we have academia which "lines their pockets" by finding ever more questions that need answering, and stoking fear of social or environmental collapse to generate those questions. Now, I personally know which side I trust more. However, if the lens is "who is lining their pockets" well, I am not sure that's really enough.
photojosh 5y ago
>> Let me end with the golden rule of temperature extremes: the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming. Think about that. This frustrates me because "global warming" refers to the average temperature sure, but it is really only useful as a measure of the total _energy_ in the atmosphere. More energy = more extreme _events_, such as this one. Whereas the way I read his point seems to be making the claim that because the temperature of the event is further from the normal temperature, that is less about global warming. Hence why "climate change" is a more accurate phrase. > I think this event has yet to be fully explored and scientifically analyzed, but currently it looks like this is a rare 1 in 1000 years event that could have occurred with or without climate change. In the past we would have written this event off as an anomaly, a record setting event that stands out but isn't the norm. But now it seems like people are very quick to shout 'climate change' for literally any kind of weather anomaly and I am trying to understand why. Because there seem to more and more* of these "rare 1 in 1000 years" events. The increased frequency is why people shout 'climate change'. * it could just be increased reporting in our highly connected world, but I don't think so.

Judgmentality 5y ago

> But now it seems like people are very quick to shout 'climate change' for literally any kind of weather anomaly and I am trying to understand why. I admittedly haven't done a statistical analysis, but aren't these "anomalies" happening significantly more frequently than before?

throwawaysea 5y ago
In Seattle, which was one of the cities affected by this event (also on the West side of the Cascade mountain range), the previous days with triple digit temperatures occurred in 2009, 1994, and 1941. The earlier parts of this season were actually cooler than usual, and drier than usual. You would often see posts about having the coolest day in X years from weather posts (example: https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1401722154157187073 https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1401722154157187073).
kecupochren 5y ago
Anecdotal but there was recently a tornado in Czechia. That's just nuts for such a region. I suspect the rate at which these anomalies will be happening will surprise many.
- pphysch 5y ago
  Counter anecdote: the last tornado event in mountainous Salt Lake City, Utah was in 1999.
  - kingofpandora 5y ago
    Is that a counter anecdote or a supporting anecdote?
- guerrilla 5y ago
  and big floods in southern Germany and a record heat wave in Sweden at the same time.
- Applejinx 5y ago
  That is literally what you get when you pump more energy into a titanic chaotic system with more possible energy than any human war could inflict. When you boost the amount of energy in the system it's further destabilized and the amount of violence unleashed is well beyond the worst we can do with bombs and weapons of war. I'm not surprised. I've been saying this for years, along with many people who understood that climate was a chaotic system. People just do not understand what's happening.

manmal 5y ago

If there is no conclusive evidence towards either side, then why not choose the side more likely to protect humanity from further harm?

doytch 5y ago
You can be in favour of major surgery on our civilisation to get to net-zero in order prevent climate change, and still think that this event was likely not caused by climate change.
- manmal 5y ago
  And what would make me think that - the mere possibility of it being true is not a compelling argument.
seneca 5y ago
> If there is no conclusive evidence towards either side, then why not choose the side more likely to protect humanity from further harm? Yes, completely agreed! Now we just have to figure out which side that is. Put another way, you'll go a long way towards wisdom when you realize both sides of most arguments believe they are arguing for what is genuinely the best option, including what will protect humanity. I'm not a client change denier, but it's silly to argue "why don't you just do what is clearly right?" in pretty much any disagreement.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  That's trivial: check which side is lining their pockets, then choose the other.
  - Apes 5y ago
    Ah, the ol' "a perfect world is one where I pull everyone down to my level" logic.
  - bdamm 5y ago
    Which side is that, exactly? On one hand we have big oil and pretty much every industrial polluter globally, and on the other hand we have academia which "lines their pockets" by finding ever more questions that need answering, and stoking fear of social or environmental collapse to generate those questions. Now, I personally know which side I trust more. However, if the lens is "who is lining their pockets" well, I am not sure that's really enough.

photojosh 5y ago

>> Let me end with the golden rule of temperature extremes: the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming. Think about that. This frustrates me because "global warming" refers to the average temperature sure, but it is really only useful as a measure of the total _energy_ in the atmosphere. More energy = more extreme _events_, such as this one. Whereas the way I read his point seems to be making the claim that because the temperature of the event is further from the normal temperature, that is less about global warming. Hence why "climate change" is a more accurate phrase. > I think this event has yet to be fully explored and scientifically analyzed, but currently it looks like this is a rare 1 in 1000 years event that could have occurred with or without climate change. In the past we would have written this event off as an anomaly, a record setting event that stands out but isn't the norm. But now it seems like people are very quick to shout 'climate change' for literally any kind of weather anomaly and I am trying to understand why. Because there seem to more and more* of these "rare 1 in 1000 years" events. The increased frequency is why people shout 'climate change'. * it could just be increased reporting in our highly connected world, but I don't think so.