There is absolutely speculation involved. But a domain name is and inherently exclusive thing, is it not? Sure you can have different TLD's (.com, .co, .net, .o

There is absolutely speculation involved. But a domain name is and inherently exclusive thing, is it not? Sure you can have different TLD's (.com, .co, .net, .org, etc) but there can be only one owner and that person is the sole determiner of how much they want in order to transfer ownership. It's also my understanding that the trademark rule only applies if the trademark was made before the scalper purchased the domain name. If you're a startup or just someone who wants the domain then you're out of luck. Your only options are to pay the asking price or hopefully wait until their claim on it lapses and they don't renew.