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I have seen studies finding that stock market sentiment is a contrarian indicators. It's better to buy stocks when everyone is bearish. Is the pattern reversed
by Bostonian 5y ago
I have seen studies finding that stock market sentiment is a contrarian indicators. It's better to buy stocks when everyone is bearish. Is the pattern reversed in the housing market, so that when people say it's a bad time to buy a home, house prices tend to fall or appreciate less? That would be an interesting study. If the pattern is reversed, does that mean people are more rational in the home-buying decisions than their stock investments? That seems plausible to me. People do buy meme stocks for multiples of their fair value, but house price variation is more rational.
- metalliqaz 5y agoThe US is creeping towards a reality where houses are bought primarily as investments by REITs, corporations, and the top 10% (eventually top 1%?). This slow but steady progressions seems inevitable, given our culture. So I think the housing market will increasingly look more and more like the stock and commodities markets.
- jfengel 5y agoI'm curious what that looks like. Do the REITs rent those houses out? That seems like a hassle, with a lot of hands-on overhead. Are they going to sell them to people? If so, they're not really cornering the market any more. Are they just hoping to make profits by flipping houses between every actual resident? That doesn't seem sustainable. Were they going to just leave a lot of housing empty to push up the prices on the rest of it? That seems risky at best. I don't doubt that this is currently going on, but I wonder what the long-term strategy looks like for them. Real estate doesn't seem like a really good growth investment. It's more of a blue-chip thing. If it's an outsized growth now, that's temporary.