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People have been worried about this since the 90s. But it hasn't stopped compensation from increasing dramatically. Demand for software work is only increasing

People have been worried about this since the 90s. But it hasn't stopped compensation from increasing dramatically. Demand for software work is only increasing. The more software we create, the more valuable marginal software becomes. The total number of software engineers has doubled every 5 years for a long time. Of course that won't continue forever but there's no reason to think it will stop very soon either. For a long time employers have been unable to hire enough to meet demand (the marginal engineer at the top tech companies adds something like $500k-1m in value). I would guess that increasing WFH will cause at most a modest slowing of compensation increases. I would be very surprised if it led to any decrease. In the long term it will only be a minor factor, the bigger things to worry about are general economic trends and things like better tools (even AI?) making the job more accessible and easier to learn. Also see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

cudgy 5y ago
“People have been worried about this since the 90s. But it hasn't stopped compensation from increasing dramatically.” Software devs a few years out of university in places like Atlanta and Boston made 100k 20 years ago. How much more do they make now? Not much more. You must be thinking like a myopic Silicon Valley FAANG fan.
- ryandrake 5y ago
  I was actually a fresh college grad a little over 20 years ago, and I can tell you we were not making even close to $100K. Maybe a few who lucked into Microsoft or SGI or something, but not the vast, vast majority. My first salary was $45K with no stock, back in 1998, which felt absolutely amazing and already put me far above the median US worker.
  - shagie 5y ago
    The inflation calculator says that would be $74,317.64 in today's dollars. Not too bad. Also, in '96, it was a standard joke on sgi.bad-attitude about the interchangeability of stock and toilet paper. I'm not sure that anyone who got options from SGI in the late 90s made a profit on them. I'll also note that making $45k at Taos (doing tech support at SGI), I was making more than my father was at the time.
- jjav 5y ago
  > Software devs a few years out of university in places like Atlanta and Boston made 100k 20 years ago. I've never worked in Atlanta or Boston but that does not sound right. Unless those cities were paying well over Silicon Valley salaries back then. Which I doubt. 20 years ago I was in Silicon Valley, already with a handful of years experience, at a top company and certainly not making 100K yet. Maybe I was super underpaid but according to the salary bands (which the company published) I was somewhat over the median. The SV compensation explosion first into the mid 100s and then into the stratosphere started later than that. In the late 90s into the dot com bust, software engineering was a well paying job but nothing special compared to other professsional jobs.
RestlessMind 5y ago
See my other comment in this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27697067 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27697067

cudgy 5y ago

“People have been worried about this since the 90s. But it hasn't stopped compensation from increasing dramatically.” Software devs a few years out of university in places like Atlanta and Boston made 100k 20 years ago. How much more do they make now? Not much more. You must be thinking like a myopic Silicon Valley FAANG fan.

ryandrake 5y ago
I was actually a fresh college grad a little over 20 years ago, and I can tell you we were not making even close to $100K. Maybe a few who lucked into Microsoft or SGI or something, but not the vast, vast majority. My first salary was $45K with no stock, back in 1998, which felt absolutely amazing and already put me far above the median US worker.
- shagie 5y ago
  The inflation calculator says that would be $74,317.64 in today's dollars. Not too bad. Also, in '96, it was a standard joke on sgi.bad-attitude about the interchangeability of stock and toilet paper. I'm not sure that anyone who got options from SGI in the late 90s made a profit on them. I'll also note that making $45k at Taos (doing tech support at SGI), I was making more than my father was at the time.
jjav 5y ago
> Software devs a few years out of university in places like Atlanta and Boston made 100k 20 years ago. I've never worked in Atlanta or Boston but that does not sound right. Unless those cities were paying well over Silicon Valley salaries back then. Which I doubt. 20 years ago I was in Silicon Valley, already with a handful of years experience, at a top company and certainly not making 100K yet. Maybe I was super underpaid but according to the salary bands (which the company published) I was somewhat over the median. The SV compensation explosion first into the mid 100s and then into the stratosphere started later than that. In the late 90s into the dot com bust, software engineering was a well paying job but nothing special compared to other professsional jobs.

RestlessMind 5y ago

See my other comment in this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27697067 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27697067