I'd like to see the author's quantified track record of giving accurate estimates before I take their advice. In my experience, software project estimation is

I'd like to see the author's quantified track record of giving accurate estimates before I take their advice. In my experience, software project estimation is the thing that everyone thinks someone else must be able to do well, and that they could do it if only they had more discipline. Then we get the tired old advice about breaking the project up into smaller chunks. But all the studies I've read of actual estimation methodologies show something like 300-600% error rate. People think this must be doable because they want it to work, and they want an estimate. It's the same way that people thought one witch doctor was better at curing disease than another, when in reality none of it really does what's claimed. I'm convinced that elaborating the spec in enough detail is the work of software engineering, and once you've done that fully you've done the whole project.