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This is only true if the set of possible outcomes has remained static and if the probabilities of each outcome has remained static. With climate change the pro
by syops 5y ago
This is only true if the set of possible outcomes has remained static and if the probabilities of each outcome has remained static. With climate change the probabilities have shifted and the possible outcomes may have shifted too.
- xboxnolifes 5y agoThey may have, but the question is whether or not the assumption that we have been rolling 2 6-sided die is correct in the first place. For all we know we could have been rolling 3.
- syops 5y agoI truly don't understand what your point is. If, in your parlance, we have been rolling 3 dice all along then this means our previous 1000 years of climate data is truly extraordinary since this is the first time seeing a number greater than 12. So extraordinary that it is not plausible to think that we have been rolling 3 dice all along. Of course this is possible in a similar way that it is possible that an unseen intelligence has been controlling things all along. The point about seeing 13 is that the set of outcomes have changed. We are beyond the realm of thinking that nothing has changed. It's not the we have always been rolling 3 dice; it's that we are now rolling 3 dice.