6 ms·

This is still "just" a weather phenomenon, not a change in the local climate. Events like this happen every so often and it's really hard to get some actual st

by qayxc 5y ago

This is still "just" a weather phenomenon, not a change in the local climate. Events like this happen every so often and it's really hard to get some actual statistics on this, because reliable measurements only started about 150 years ago. This means that extreme weather with occurrence rates of say once every 500 years and below are incredibly hard to classify and evaluate for statistical relevance. Whether this is just a fluke or a recurring pattern with increasing frequency cannot be ascertained from a singular event like this. > so why shouldn’t we expect to see record temps near 150-175F by the end of the century? There are certain limits and differences in where and how temperature is measured (air vs ground, shade vs unshaded, etc.) so it could be argued that such temperatures have already been recorded in the past (see [0]). Such isolated phenomena, while being great at scaring the crap out of people, aren't the most dangerous or impactful consequences of climate change and ruthless exploitation of natural resources, though. The loss of drinking water and arable soil is far more critical than a few days of unbearable heat... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_o...

saiya-jin 5y ago
One of the things I noticed with global warming (still prefer this term) is that local extremes that are supposed to be super rare are not so rare anymore. Back home, a freak storm + strong wind damaged large parts of the forest around highest mountains around. Pine trees literally broken some 5-10 meters above ground in a wide area. It was supposed to be once-in-a-century event. Few years after that another one came. And then another. I think of global warming more like general equilibrium being broken by heating things up. Overall higher temperature with local changes in every direction (even cooling), and more frequent extremes.
- wait_a_minute 5y ago
  Is there hard data on it though? I want to see what the hard data shows and how we know what will happen in the future. With what level of confidence, too. I’m not denying the problem, I want to know if we should all start planning to live in a war-torn hellscape or if that’s just corrosive negativity from doomsayers. For example you can see other people in the comments saying we’re all screwed, to pull up a chair and watch, etc.
  - swader999 5y ago
    No there isn't. The period in the 1920's to 1940's had more heat extremes. See USGCRP Climate Science Special Assessment: Volume 1: Chapter 6: Temperature Changes in the United States https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/ https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/ Scroll down to figure 6.3. You can see that the 1920's to 1940's had more extreme heat events than any time since. Figure 6.4 is also useful to look at.
    - mnadkvlb 5y ago
      Maybe also refer to figure 6.5, very interesting. Although that wont fit the narrative
      - swader999 5y ago
        That's a misleading chart. What it means is we are seeing more warm records in relation to cold records. It doesn't say anything about the total number of warm records. North America has been seeing milder winters these past thirty years. It doesn't mean we've been seeing more record highs than other periods. They explain this here: "By extension, there has been an increase in the ratio of the number of record highs to record lows (Figure 6.5). Over the past two decades, the average of this ratio exceeds two (meaning that twice as many high-temperature records have been set as low-temperature records)."
user-the-name 5y ago
> a singular event like this. It's quite a stretch at this point to call these events "singular".
- brink 5y ago
  Unique weather events around the world get _a lot_ of attention, and almost always make the front page. A harsh weather event that happens nearly anywhere in the world is seen nearly everywhere in the world.
- qayxc 5y ago
  > It's quite a stretch at this point to call these events "singular". How so? What else would you call an all-time record set since the beginning of data recording? Especially when the new record exceeds all previous ones by several degrees instead of fractions of a degree as is commonly the case.
  - user-the-name 5y ago
    Because these all-time recording-setting events keep happening. Every time, people try to say "well you can't judge anything from this SINGULAR event", as if none of the other ones had happened.
    - walkedaway 5y ago
      The data here doesn't seem to align with your claim, at least in the US. Perhaps its happening in other places? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_tempe...
boringg 5y ago
Um so it's not just this event that everyone is freaking out about (but they are a little) its the fact that this a harbinger of what is to come due to global warming which is hotter days in cities, infrastructure challenges, crop failure, forest fires, arable land etc. Faster than we thought it would happen. You can hold on to your theory thats its a 1 in 500 event (you could also hold on to any theory your heart desires) but the recent data and global warming trends point to anthropogenic global warming being the source cause.
- NoOneNew 5y ago
  I'm not a climate change denier at all, but you've correlated unrelated problems. Most infrastructure issues are not coming from climate change. They're coming from poorly maintained 50+ year old structures that were engineered to only last for 50 years. What people dont understand, structures have to be checked and lightly repaired every 5 to 10 years. That is normal. Most are not because the last and current gen of politicians are absolute career politicians who thought diverting funds from repair was a good idea. Crop failure... eh, we haven't seen abnormal crop failures yet. Technically, 2012 and 2013 was far far worse compared to the last 5 years. A few other issues. Crop failure is tracked by insurance claims. Insurance pays out best due to "weather/climate related failure" not so much do to "I fucked up". Claiming weather caused failure, especially in this political climate, is super easy. When it comes to futures and current spot prices, we haven't seen significant crop failures. If you did, food staples would be a lot higher. That being said, the western states is going to experience a long time of water issues. However, there is good research, that's popped up on HN often, that the west is going back to normal in climate regards. It's less greenhouse gas caused climate change is drying the western states. The last 200 years have been abnormally wet. It going back to normal, which is dry. Just because it doesn't benefit us, doesnt mean we can claim something bad is happening to the climate. Those states are supposed to be drier than they have been. Hotter days in cities... yea... but New Yorkers die every year due to heat waves. They always have. City folk are typically stupid when it comes to how nature and weather can kill them. I remember as a kid in the 90s, if it's summer, New Yorkers are going to steal window AC units and die en masse. Clockwork. Every single year. Nothing has changed there. A lot of other cities see the same stats, but no one has cared to wide report on it. Now they do because of the clickbait bump in ratings for "climate change caused heat deaths". Yes, we need to drop greenhouse gas emissions. Yes, the climate is changing and for the worse. No, you shouldn't blame stubbing your toe on climate change. No, the shadow you cant explain wasn't climate change. Blaming everything on climate change gives deniers fodder.

by qayxc 5y ago

saiya-jin 5y ago

One of the things I noticed with global warming (still prefer this term) is that local extremes that are supposed to be super rare are not so rare anymore. Back home, a freak storm + strong wind damaged large parts of the forest around highest mountains around. Pine trees literally broken some 5-10 meters above ground in a wide area. It was supposed to be once-in-a-century event. Few years after that another one came. And then another. I think of global warming more like general equilibrium being broken by heating things up. Overall higher temperature with local changes in every direction (even cooling), and more frequent extremes.

wait_a_minute 5y ago
Is there hard data on it though? I want to see what the hard data shows and how we know what will happen in the future. With what level of confidence, too. I’m not denying the problem, I want to know if we should all start planning to live in a war-torn hellscape or if that’s just corrosive negativity from doomsayers. For example you can see other people in the comments saying we’re all screwed, to pull up a chair and watch, etc.
- swader999 5y ago
  No there isn't. The period in the 1920's to 1940's had more heat extremes. See USGCRP Climate Science Special Assessment: Volume 1: Chapter 6: Temperature Changes in the United States https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/ https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/ Scroll down to figure 6.3. You can see that the 1920's to 1940's had more extreme heat events than any time since. Figure 6.4 is also useful to look at.
  - mnadkvlb 5y ago
    Maybe also refer to figure 6.5, very interesting. Although that wont fit the narrative
    - swader999 5y ago
      That's a misleading chart. What it means is we are seeing more warm records in relation to cold records. It doesn't say anything about the total number of warm records. North America has been seeing milder winters these past thirty years. It doesn't mean we've been seeing more record highs than other periods. They explain this here: "By extension, there has been an increase in the ratio of the number of record highs to record lows (Figure 6.5). Over the past two decades, the average of this ratio exceeds two (meaning that twice as many high-temperature records have been set as low-temperature records)."

user-the-name 5y ago

> a singular event like this. It's quite a stretch at this point to call these events "singular".

brink 5y ago
Unique weather events around the world get _a lot_ of attention, and almost always make the front page. A harsh weather event that happens nearly anywhere in the world is seen nearly everywhere in the world.
qayxc 5y ago
> It's quite a stretch at this point to call these events "singular". How so? What else would you call an all-time record set since the beginning of data recording? Especially when the new record exceeds all previous ones by several degrees instead of fractions of a degree as is commonly the case.
- user-the-name 5y ago
  Because these all-time recording-setting events keep happening. Every time, people try to say "well you can't judge anything from this SINGULAR event", as if none of the other ones had happened.
  - walkedaway 5y ago
    The data here doesn't seem to align with your claim, at least in the US. Perhaps its happening in other places? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_tempe...

boringg 5y ago

Um so it's not just this event that everyone is freaking out about (but they are a little) its the fact that this a harbinger of what is to come due to global warming which is hotter days in cities, infrastructure challenges, crop failure, forest fires, arable land etc. Faster than we thought it would happen. You can hold on to your theory thats its a 1 in 500 event (you could also hold on to any theory your heart desires) but the recent data and global warming trends point to anthropogenic global warming being the source cause.

NoOneNew 5y ago
I'm not a climate change denier at all, but you've correlated unrelated problems. Most infrastructure issues are not coming from climate change. They're coming from poorly maintained 50+ year old structures that were engineered to only last for 50 years. What people dont understand, structures have to be checked and lightly repaired every 5 to 10 years. That is normal. Most are not because the last and current gen of politicians are absolute career politicians who thought diverting funds from repair was a good idea. Crop failure... eh, we haven't seen abnormal crop failures yet. Technically, 2012 and 2013 was far far worse compared to the last 5 years. A few other issues. Crop failure is tracked by insurance claims. Insurance pays out best due to "weather/climate related failure" not so much do to "I fucked up". Claiming weather caused failure, especially in this political climate, is super easy. When it comes to futures and current spot prices, we haven't seen significant crop failures. If you did, food staples would be a lot higher. That being said, the western states is going to experience a long time of water issues. However, there is good research, that's popped up on HN often, that the west is going back to normal in climate regards. It's less greenhouse gas caused climate change is drying the western states. The last 200 years have been abnormally wet. It going back to normal, which is dry. Just because it doesn't benefit us, doesnt mean we can claim something bad is happening to the climate. Those states are supposed to be drier than they have been. Hotter days in cities... yea... but New Yorkers die every year due to heat waves. They always have. City folk are typically stupid when it comes to how nature and weather can kill them. I remember as a kid in the 90s, if it's summer, New Yorkers are going to steal window AC units and die en masse. Clockwork. Every single year. Nothing has changed there. A lot of other cities see the same stats, but no one has cared to wide report on it. Now they do because of the clickbait bump in ratings for "climate change caused heat deaths". Yes, we need to drop greenhouse gas emissions. Yes, the climate is changing and for the worse. No, you shouldn't blame stubbing your toe on climate change. No, the shadow you cant explain wasn't climate change. Blaming everything on climate change gives deniers fodder.