5 ms·
‘You can get good at estimation’ Only if you work in an extremely repeatable well trodden domain. If you are so skilled at estimation, I’m sure Tesla would lov
by onethought 5y ago
‘You can get good at estimation’
Only if you work in an extremely repeatable well trodden domain. If you are so skilled at estimation, I’m sure Tesla would love you to tell them how long FSD will take and would pay a premium!
- varjag 5y agoPeople love to conflate research with development out of "R&D", but the latter is a lot more predictable than the former. Repeatable, well trodden domains are 99,9% of development work out there.
- bendauphinee 5y agoThe problem has always been that while the ground is well trod, the path is never clear. There are hundreds of ways to build any one widget, not even counting that the widget you start building isn’t the one they wanted in their head (but not in the spec).
- varjag 5y agoSure, that's why estimation is usually not trivial. But still a lot easier than when you have to invent a new kind of widget first.
- Traster 5y agoYou don't need to work in an extremely repeatable domain to get good at estimation. There is very little in my day to day job that is repeatable, but I can roughly look at the project I'm on and compare the scope of it to the projects I've done before. If you really do think that every project you're working on is completely incomparable to anything you've worked on before you're probably concentrating on too low level details.
- onethought 5y agoOr doing something novel?
- PetahNZ 5y agoI can estimate how long FSD will take. Now where do I get the pay check?
- stepbeek 5y agoestimate = estimate + 1?