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If VCs knew what made companies great, they wouldn’t fail 9 out of 10 times. More than any profession I can think of, VC is almost pure luck + how much wealth y

If VCs knew what made companies great, they wouldn’t fail 9 out of 10 times. More than any profession I can think of, VC is almost pure luck + how much wealth you already have, which attracts deal flow, which increases your odds to get lucky. PG blogs because he thinks it increases his deal flow (or he wants attention). Just because he’s saying it, it doesn’t make it true, even if he believes his own story.

ceilingcorner 5y ago
That still doesn't answer my question. If hard work had no effect, why would VCs encourage it?
- luffapi 5y ago
  Because they’re ignorant and think it matters.
  - ceilingcorner 5y ago
    So they encourage hard work because it makes them money, but not really, because they are only ignorant in thinking that it does, and it's actually entirely luck? Yeah, this attitude is a mental pretzel more akin to ideology than fact.
    - luffapi 5y ago
      They make money through luck. They speak authoritatively out of ignorance. Monkeys rolling dice could do an equally good job, that doesn’t mean you should take advice from a monkey with a gambling problem.
      - CyanBird 5y ago
        Why delete the reply? It is an accurate angle, albeit inflamatory, after all that was the outcome of the Buffet bet vs HedgeFunds regarding the ROI of index funds But yeah, not sure if id say that they make money through luck "alone", more like they make money through "the aggregate of luck" and very deep pockets which themselves are financed through suprasecular low interest rates, or in the same manner that a Casino will always win in the aggregate
        luffapi 5y ago
        I didn’t delete my reply, but I totally agree with you.
    - CyanBird 5y ago
      > this attitude is a mental pretzel more akin to ideology than fact. Of course that's the case, because you are baking your own misleading slant into questions and then wondering why the output of the questioning process is not satisfactory Slant such as: >"...If hard work had no effect..." Which is not something that's being argued for. It is just a strawman of your own making to the points raised Id recommend you to do introspection on manicheist type thinking, and the difference between aggregate results of "Luck+Hard Work" vs the "Luck"/"Hard Work" work binary thinking. I can't solve your errors of thinking, you'll have to work hard to understand the problem, or maybe you'll be one of the lucky few to understand it with ease :)
      - ceilingcorner 5y ago
        The condescending, passive aggressive reply, filled with “you must look within” tropes and topped off with a smiley face. Is there anything more irritating?
        CyanBird 5y ago
        Just dont add the slant to the questions next time, it is just ...... not even unnecessary, it is counterproductive for you and everyone, to the other person is just as irritating as what I did to you with the previous reply + smiley Or alternatively go watch that veritasium video that's being shared over the thread, it is very good

ceilingcorner 5y ago

That still doesn't answer my question. If hard work had no effect, why would VCs encourage it?

luffapi 5y ago
Because they’re ignorant and think it matters.
- ceilingcorner 5y ago
  So they encourage hard work because it makes them money, but not really, because they are only ignorant in thinking that it does, and it's actually entirely luck? Yeah, this attitude is a mental pretzel more akin to ideology than fact.
  - luffapi 5y ago
    They make money through luck. They speak authoritatively out of ignorance. Monkeys rolling dice could do an equally good job, that doesn’t mean you should take advice from a monkey with a gambling problem.
    - CyanBird 5y ago
      Why delete the reply? It is an accurate angle, albeit inflamatory, after all that was the outcome of the Buffet bet vs HedgeFunds regarding the ROI of index funds But yeah, not sure if id say that they make money through luck "alone", more like they make money through "the aggregate of luck" and very deep pockets which themselves are financed through suprasecular low interest rates, or in the same manner that a Casino will always win in the aggregate
      - luffapi 5y ago
        I didn’t delete my reply, but I totally agree with you.
  - CyanBird 5y ago
    > this attitude is a mental pretzel more akin to ideology than fact. Of course that's the case, because you are baking your own misleading slant into questions and then wondering why the output of the questioning process is not satisfactory Slant such as: >"...If hard work had no effect..." Which is not something that's being argued for. It is just a strawman of your own making to the points raised Id recommend you to do introspection on manicheist type thinking, and the difference between aggregate results of "Luck+Hard Work" vs the "Luck"/"Hard Work" work binary thinking. I can't solve your errors of thinking, you'll have to work hard to understand the problem, or maybe you'll be one of the lucky few to understand it with ease :)
    - ceilingcorner 5y ago
      The condescending, passive aggressive reply, filled with “you must look within” tropes and topped off with a smiley face. Is there anything more irritating?
      - CyanBird 5y ago
        Just dont add the slant to the questions next time, it is just ...... not even unnecessary, it is counterproductive for you and everyone, to the other person is just as irritating as what I did to you with the previous reply + smiley Or alternatively go watch that veritasium video that's being shared over the thread, it is very good