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Automation has always produced an increase in jobs so far, although sometimes in a disruptive way. I consider this like the switch from instruction-level progra

by Joeri 5y ago

Automation has always produced an increase in jobs so far, although sometimes in a disruptive way. I consider this like the switch from instruction-level programming to compiled languages, a level of abstraction added that buys a large increase in productivity and makes projects affordable that weren’t affordable before. If anything this will probably lead to a boom in development work. But there’s a bunch of low skill programmers who can’t do much more than follow project templates and copy paste things. Those people will have to level up or get out.

croes 5y ago
I think you are confusing correlation and causation. Not automation produces jobs, more people and more income for that people produces jobs, because more people means more demand.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- asteroidbelt 5y ago
  Automation makes product development cheaper lowering the barrier to use the automation. 50 years ago only largest companies could build something software, but every one person business have a website (and a part time engineer to develop it).
asdfman123 5y ago
I feel like the inevitable path will be: 1) AI makes really good code completion to make juniors way more productive. Senior devs benefit as well. 2) AI gets so good that it becomes increasingly hard to get a job as a junior--you just need senior devs to supervise the AI. This creates a talent pipeline shortage and screws over generations that want to become devs, but we find ways to deal with it. 3) Another major advance hits and AI becomes so good that the long promised "no code" future comes within reach. The line between BA and programmer blurs until everyone's basically a BA, telling the computer what kind of code it wants. The thing though that many fail to recognize about technology is that while advances like this happen, sometimes technology seems to stall for DECADES. (E.g. the AI winter happened, but we're finally out of it.)
- drusepth 5y ago
  I could also see an alternative to #2 where it becomes increasingly hard to get a job as a senior dev when companies can just hire juniors to produce probably-good code and slightly more QA to ensure correctness. You'd definitely still need some seniors in this scenario, but it feels possible that tooling like this might reduce their value-per-cost (and have the opposite effect on a larger pool of juniors). As another comment said here, "if you can generate great python code but can't upgrade the EC2 instance when it runs out of memory, you haven't replaced developers; you've just freed up more of their time" (paraphrased).
  - visarga 5y ago
    No, programmers won't be replaced, we'll just add this to our toolbox. Every time our productivity increased we found new ways to spend it. There's no limit to our wants.
    - phist_mcgee 5y ago
      The famous 10 hour work week right? I am orders of magnitude more productive than my peers 50 years ago wrt programming scope and complexity, yet we work the same 40 hour week. I just produce more (sometimes buggy) code/products.
- wittycardio 5y ago
  I feel like you're neglecting to mention all the people who need to build and maintain this AI. Cookie cutter business logic will no longer need programmers but there will be more highly skilled jobs to keep building and improving the AI
  - foolinaround 5y ago
    AI will keep building and improving the AI, of course!
  - hackinthebochs 5y ago
    But you need orders of magnitude fewer people to build and maintain the AIs then you do to manually create all the software running the world. And this is the unique peril of AI. The scale of capabilities of AI have the promise to grow faster than the creation of new classes jobs.
addicted 5y ago
Yes, but AI isn't the same as automation. Automation is a force multiplier. AI is a cheaper way of doing what humans do. And the AI doesn't even need to be "true" AI. It simply needs to be able to do stuff better than what humans do.
- visarga 5y ago
  > AI is a cheaper way of doing what humans do. Like protein solving? /s
Hammershaft 5y ago
> Automation has always produced an increase in jobs so far Do you have a source for this re the last 20 years? It seems to me automation has been shifting the demand recently towards more skilled cognitive work.
- seppin 5y ago
  A global increase in jobs, a decrease in the west.

by Joeri 5y ago

croes 5y ago

I think you are confusing correlation and causation. Not automation produces jobs, more people and more income for that people produces jobs, because more people means more demand.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
asteroidbelt 5y ago
Automation makes product development cheaper lowering the barrier to use the automation. 50 years ago only largest companies could build something software, but every one person business have a website (and a part time engineer to develop it).

asdfman123 5y ago

I feel like the inevitable path will be: 1) AI makes really good code completion to make juniors way more productive. Senior devs benefit as well. 2) AI gets so good that it becomes increasingly hard to get a job as a junior--you just need senior devs to supervise the AI. This creates a talent pipeline shortage and screws over generations that want to become devs, but we find ways to deal with it. 3) Another major advance hits and AI becomes so good that the long promised "no code" future comes within reach. The line between BA and programmer blurs until everyone's basically a BA, telling the computer what kind of code it wants. The thing though that many fail to recognize about technology is that while advances like this happen, sometimes technology seems to stall for DECADES. (E.g. the AI winter happened, but we're finally out of it.)

drusepth 5y ago
I could also see an alternative to #2 where it becomes increasingly hard to get a job as a senior dev when companies can just hire juniors to produce probably-good code and slightly more QA to ensure correctness. You'd definitely still need some seniors in this scenario, but it feels possible that tooling like this might reduce their value-per-cost (and have the opposite effect on a larger pool of juniors). As another comment said here, "if you can generate great python code but can't upgrade the EC2 instance when it runs out of memory, you haven't replaced developers; you've just freed up more of their time" (paraphrased).
- visarga 5y ago
  No, programmers won't be replaced, we'll just add this to our toolbox. Every time our productivity increased we found new ways to spend it. There's no limit to our wants.
  - phist_mcgee 5y ago
    The famous 10 hour work week right? I am orders of magnitude more productive than my peers 50 years ago wrt programming scope and complexity, yet we work the same 40 hour week. I just produce more (sometimes buggy) code/products.
wittycardio 5y ago
I feel like you're neglecting to mention all the people who need to build and maintain this AI. Cookie cutter business logic will no longer need programmers but there will be more highly skilled jobs to keep building and improving the AI
- foolinaround 5y ago
  AI will keep building and improving the AI, of course!
- hackinthebochs 5y ago
  But you need orders of magnitude fewer people to build and maintain the AIs then you do to manually create all the software running the world. And this is the unique peril of AI. The scale of capabilities of AI have the promise to grow faster than the creation of new classes jobs.

addicted 5y ago

Yes, but AI isn't the same as automation. Automation is a force multiplier. AI is a cheaper way of doing what humans do. And the AI doesn't even need to be "true" AI. It simply needs to be able to do stuff better than what humans do.

visarga 5y ago
> AI is a cheaper way of doing what humans do. Like protein solving? /s

Hammershaft 5y ago

> Automation has always produced an increase in jobs so far Do you have a source for this re the last 20 years? It seems to me automation has been shifting the demand recently towards more skilled cognitive work.

seppin 5y ago
A global increase in jobs, a decrease in the west.