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This has always been my perception. I think that the market forces an underestimation of risk as the only viable long-term strategy (ironically). If I can run
by jbert 15y ago
This has always been my perception.
I think that the market forces an underestimation of risk as the only viable long-term strategy (ironically).
If I can run my finance house on a "I will blow up on a once-every-5-year event" I will outgrow a business running on "I will blow up on a once-every-50-year event". So I outcompete my competitors and acquire them or steal their best employees with high salary etc.
Basically, short-termism seems to be the optimal solution in the game theory of risk management.
(Of course, the real problem is the frequency of such events is poorly understood. What happens is that a finance house pursues a 'more profitable' course without perhaps fully understanding their increased exposure. See Taleb, sub-prime crash etc)