3 ms·

Isn't it funny that all these people with incredible luck - every single one - also work their asses off?

by EricE 5y ago

colonelanguz 5y ago
In my opinion, no, not really. Hard work could be necessary but not sufficient, or contingently necessary. Or the success criterion could be defined in a way that obscures the link to hard work. This is from a review of Taleb's The Black Swan: As Cicero pointed out, we all suffer from 'survivorship bias': that is, we confine our evidence to that adduced from those few who succeed or survive, and ignore the silent evidence of all those who didn't make it. The graveyard is silent, the awards ceremony is noisy. [1] https://sunwords.com/2009/08/24/to-understand-success-and-failure-try-visiting-the-graveyard/ https://sunwords.com/2009/08/24/to-understand-success-and-fa...
barrkel 5y ago
It's necessary but not sufficient. What if you work hard all through your 20s, not a day off, and it doesn't work out (which it doesn't, in the billionaire sense, for most people)? How do you get back the first flush of youth? This essay from Paul reminded me once again how relatively blinkered he is. He has his mental model of a good life - for obvious reasons, it's one which is somewhat similar to his own - and he doesn't question his assumptions. What is his utility function? Is it a universal utility function, or is it actually just his preferred, locally, personally optimal way of increasing its value? Dismissing whole departments at college is part of that. You might not see value in the philosophy - PG is on record as dismissing it - but philosophy has changed the world more than almost anything else. It's at the foundation of science, law, government and politics, and most of the wars of the 20th century were fought, ultimately, over philosophy. PG knows this, maybe he views it differently - he studied it in college after all - but in his shoes, I wouldn't be so dismissive.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  >it's necessary but not sufficient. not even necessary if you inherit it
lupire 5y ago
Warren Buffet's son didn't.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  in a generation or 2 we are going to be seeing the forbes 50 list full of bezos and musks kids. yeah hard work indeed
twalla 5y ago
I've heard hard work described as increasing your luck "surface area". So imagine you're trying to catch luck "raindrops" and you're Bill Gates - sure you're busting your ass but you're starting off with a football stadium sized bucket in monsoon season. A poor kid from Baltimore with divorced parents could work as hard and end up with the analogy-equivalent of a coffee cup in Death Valley
papito 5y ago
The Chinese say "luck is a combination of preparedness and opportunity". You have to be prepared for an opportunity - but it may never come.
papito 5y ago
Yes, Tim Ferris tells us we should work harder to have what he has. Next time, I will be sure to be born in the Hamptons. He made the right first choice.
mehphp 5y ago
Hard work is just a prerequisite. Tons of people work just as hard as Gates/Musk but don't get the lucky breaks for whatever reason. I would posit that luck is THE differentiator between these people, not hard work.

Isn't it funny that all these people with incredible luck - every single one - also work their asses off?

by EricE 5y ago

Isn't it funny that all these people with incredible luck - every single one - also work their asses off?

In my opinion, no, not really. Hard work could be necessary but not sufficient, or contingently necessary. Or the success criterion could be defined in a way that obscures the link to hard work. This is from a review of Taleb's The Black Swan: As Cicero pointed out, we all suffer from 'survivorship bias': that is, we confine our evidence to that adduced from those few who succeed or survive, and ignore the silent evidence of all those who didn't make it. The graveyard is silent, the awards ceremony is noisy. [1] https://sunwords.com/2009/08/24/to-understand-success-and-failure-try-visiting-the-graveyard/ https://sunwords.com/2009/08/24/to-understand-success-and-fa...

barrkel 5y ago

It's necessary but not sufficient. What if you work hard all through your 20s, not a day off, and it doesn't work out (which it doesn't, in the billionaire sense, for most people)? How do you get back the first flush of youth? This essay from Paul reminded me once again how relatively blinkered he is. He has his mental model of a good life - for obvious reasons, it's one which is somewhat similar to his own - and he doesn't question his assumptions. What is his utility function? Is it a universal utility function, or is it actually just his preferred, locally, personally optimal way of increasing its value? Dismissing whole departments at college is part of that. You might not see value in the philosophy - PG is on record as dismissing it - but philosophy has changed the world more than almost anything else. It's at the foundation of science, law, government and politics, and most of the wars of the 20th century were fought, ultimately, over philosophy. PG knows this, maybe he views it differently - he studied it in college after all - but in his shoes, I wouldn't be so dismissive.

paulpauper 5y ago
>it's necessary but not sufficient. not even necessary if you inherit it

lupire 5y ago

Warren Buffet's son didn't.

paulpauper 5y ago
in a generation or 2 we are going to be seeing the forbes 50 list full of bezos and musks kids. yeah hard work indeed

twalla 5y ago

I've heard hard work described as increasing your luck "surface area". So imagine you're trying to catch luck "raindrops" and you're Bill Gates - sure you're busting your ass but you're starting off with a football stadium sized bucket in monsoon season. A poor kid from Baltimore with divorced parents could work as hard and end up with the analogy-equivalent of a coffee cup in Death Valley

papito 5y ago

The Chinese say "luck is a combination of preparedness and opportunity". You have to be prepared for an opportunity - but it may never come.

papito 5y ago

Yes, Tim Ferris tells us we should work harder to have what he has. Next time, I will be sure to be born in the Hamptons. He made the right first choice.

mehphp 5y ago

Hard work is just a prerequisite. Tons of people work just as hard as Gates/Musk but don't get the lucky breaks for whatever reason. I would posit that luck is THE differentiator between these people, not hard work.