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Just general behavior of that person and their expectations at 41 years old. You would just add this to other assumptions about unmoved bitcoin, where over tim

Just general behavior of that person and their expectations at 41 years old. You would just add this to other assumptions about unmoved bitcoin, where over time you would look for the days destroyed the metric, aka how many bitcoins have remained unmoved for how long. It is decent news when old bitcoins are moved, and until that occurs they can be assumed to never move, especially when they are in version 1 addresses.

ur-whale 5y ago
Mircea was (if he is indeed dead and isn't instead pulling a fast one) one profoundly odd bird [1], but he was most certainly not dumb. He also lived a rather unusual life [2][3] and likelihood of some sort of trouble hitting him at some point were not insignificant. Also, his death would be a perfect Mircea-type opportunity to create an "event" in the Bitcoin ecosystem. It's quite possible he wouldn't let something like that go to waste. These taken together, I think assuming he hadn't planned anything in case of his demise is a bit of a stretch. The only reason I could think of that he didn't was his profoundly individualistic take on life. But then again, he had folks he cared about [4] Also, the "old coins moved" metric argument isn't necessarily a good one: if there is a plan in case of his (alleged) death, it does not imply the coins will move right away (not that you even know on which addie they were stored in the first place). Anyways, RIP Mircea, the world got quite more boring if you did indeed pass away. [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20210601004904/http://trilema.com/ https://web.archive.org/web/20210601004904/http://trilema.co... [2] https://archive.md/9AvNW https://archive.md/9AvNW [3] https://archive.md/wip/cJNKb https://archive.md/wip/cJNKb [4] http://thewhet.net/2021/06/goodnight-sweet-master/ http://thewhet.net/2021/06/goodnight-sweet-master/

ur-whale 5y ago

Mircea was (if he is indeed dead and isn't instead pulling a fast one) one profoundly odd bird [1], but he was most certainly not dumb. He also lived a rather unusual life [2][3] and likelihood of some sort of trouble hitting him at some point were not insignificant. Also, his death would be a perfect Mircea-type opportunity to create an "event" in the Bitcoin ecosystem. It's quite possible he wouldn't let something like that go to waste. These taken together, I think assuming he hadn't planned anything in case of his demise is a bit of a stretch. The only reason I could think of that he didn't was his profoundly individualistic take on life. But then again, he had folks he cared about [4] Also, the "old coins moved" metric argument isn't necessarily a good one: if there is a plan in case of his (alleged) death, it does not imply the coins will move right away (not that you even know on which addie they were stored in the first place). Anyways, RIP Mircea, the world got quite more boring if you did indeed pass away. [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20210601004904/http://trilema.com/ https://web.archive.org/web/20210601004904/http://trilema.co... [2] https://archive.md/9AvNW https://archive.md/9AvNW [3] https://archive.md/wip/cJNKb https://archive.md/wip/cJNKb [4] http://thewhet.net/2021/06/goodnight-sweet-master/ http://thewhet.net/2021/06/goodnight-sweet-master/