4 ms·

Halvenings are overrated. Bitcoin historically peaks 1yr after US elections and then finds a bottom and floats there for 3.5 yrs.

• jakelazaroff 5y ago
  Where by “historically” you mean twice?
  • factorialboy 5y ago
    2013. 2017. 2021. Three in three.
    • jkepler 5y ago
      Correlation isn't causation. Bitcoin's network started January 3, 2009, so its halving cycles are roughly correlated with US presidential elections. Bitcoin is also global, and countries like France (home to Ledger and active bitcoin communities) have five-year presidential cycles. So I don't see a causal link to US politics. However, I do think people falling down the bitcoin rabbit hole help them see the state for what it is, which might reduce the importance people place of federal politics, if it increases decentralization and local action.
      • factorialboy 5y ago
        I never said it's the cause. Just making an observation.
    • jakelazaroff 5y ago
      How can you cite 2021? Your hypothesis was a peak after 1 year and then a bottom for 3.5 years, but it’s only been eight months since the 2020 election.