5 ms·

Reminds me of the time when TSLA MCap got bigger than Volkswagen + BMW + Daimler + a few othere and I bought OTM puts. This was back when TSLA was at 160$ (800

Reminds me of the time when TSLA MCap got bigger than Volkswagen + BMW + Daimler + a few othere and I bought OTM puts. This was back when TSLA was at 160$ (800$ pre-split)

SavantIdiot 5y ago
The difference is Tesla makes cars, good cars, that people can use. Bitcoin makes "investors."
- tessierashpool 5y ago
  OK, but Tesla makes cars that catch fire while parked, and their "profit" comes from selling carbon credits to GM and Fiat. I agree Tesla is less of a pyramid scheme, but I think it's still a pyramid scheme.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - speedgoose 5y ago
    They invest a lot and not cars catching fire is unfortunately not that uncommon. I'm not sure Tesla is worse than the others. In electric cars, Hyundai and general motors got a few fires from LG batteries. If you think about ICE cars, its really not uncommon for them to burn too. If you really think Tesla is a pyramid scheme, you should consider reading their financial reports and test drive a recent one. It's perhaps a bit overrated and the full self driving is not happening anytime soon, but it's a solid product.
  - caf 5y ago
    The regulatory credit income is about what they're spending on R&D, so another way to look at it is "Tesla have GM and Fiat funding their R&D".
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    Tesla cars catch far less fire than their competitots's, EV or ICE. This has been debunked years ago, check your sources. As for credits making their profits, first it's like saying early Anazon could never turn profitable and second, just wait for the P/L report of this 2020Q2. You're in for a big surprise (my bet: profitable without counting credits amd even S/X sales!)
  - SavantIdiot 5y ago
    I don't think you know what a pyramid scheme is. A pyramid scheme is a sales scheme where one person enlists other people to sell their goods because they take a % of the sales of the people below them, which encourages the people below them to hire people below THEM. It also requires a large up front purchase by new members, which is what causes those percentages to trickle upstream, amplifying what the person at the top of the pyramid gets based on how many layers are below. When people at the bottom begin to fail to sign up new members, each layer above them no longer finds it profitable, which causes the pyramid to eventually collapse. Tesla is in no way a pyramid scheme. It is, however, a groundbreaking luxury car brand that is disrupting the auto-sales collusion, opening up the possibility of fossil fuel use reduction, highly dependent on blood minerals, and run by an egomaniac tax cheat who doesn't give 2 shits about his employees. Tesla's impact is multi-faceted, both positive and negative, and highly nuanced.
- vlovich123 5y ago
  The multiples that Tesla trades at arguably are on the assumption that they’ll crack self-driving first combined with their dominance in absorbing a good chunk of the green credits that they resell to other companies. The former feels sufficiently far out that the multiple is irrational. The latter will start disappearing as competitors roll out their own EVs and government subsidies start disappearing.
  - peter422 5y ago
    Tesla is the absolute world leader in battery manufacturing. A lot of people are betting on that as well. Tesla has a lot of things going for it if you project what we are going to need in the future. I’m not saying it is a good/bad investment but their entire car business could fade away and they could still be doing mega-business in other “green” business lines.
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      I don't believe Tesla manufactures their own batteries at this point, electing to source them from other manufacturers like Panasonic. They, I believe, intend to start making their own at some point in the future.
    - cma 5y ago
      That was Panasonic, and for the China market they switched to the same pouch cells as everyone else.
      - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
        False. Tesla has never used pouch celles in the Chinese market.
        SigmundA 5y ago
        Prismatic CATL's right? Closer to a pouch than cylindrical 21700's.
thinkingkong 5y ago
I think this is a good strategy if you look at the fundamentals. But the thing that's been making BTC work isn't the market or the technology, it's the behavior of other people. That's something that isn't taken into account in his list of justifications. People are behaving 'irrationally' and it's been working over and over again. It's created throngs of people who are believers and nothing will change their minds. BTC isn't going anywhere, despite my reservations about it's use as a tool for financial systems.
- bawolff 5y ago
  Its been what? 10 years? That's not a huge amount of time to conclude people will never change their mind and btc will go to the moon forever.
  - anonporridge 5y ago
    Doesn't matter if bitcoin stalls out or even slowly bleeds out in price. There is a subset of true believers who will hold bitcoin in their portfolio's forever because they value the self sovereignty and globally accessible wealth it provides. Even the bulls believe that we'll eventually reach a steady state where hyper growth stops and it starts behaving more like gold, tracking inflation and economic growth.
maratc 5y ago
"The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." — John Maynard Keynes

Reminds me of the time when TSLA MCap got bigger than Volkswagen + BMW + Daimler + a few othere and I bought OTM puts. This was back when TSLA was at 160$ (800$ pre-split)

SavantIdiot 5y ago

The difference is Tesla makes cars, good cars, that people can use. Bitcoin makes "investors."

tessierashpool 5y ago
OK, but Tesla makes cars that catch fire while parked, and their "profit" comes from selling carbon credits to GM and Fiat. I agree Tesla is less of a pyramid scheme, but I think it's still a pyramid scheme.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- speedgoose 5y ago
  They invest a lot and not cars catching fire is unfortunately not that uncommon. I'm not sure Tesla is worse than the others. In electric cars, Hyundai and general motors got a few fires from LG batteries. If you think about ICE cars, its really not uncommon for them to burn too. If you really think Tesla is a pyramid scheme, you should consider reading their financial reports and test drive a recent one. It's perhaps a bit overrated and the full self driving is not happening anytime soon, but it's a solid product.
- caf 5y ago
  The regulatory credit income is about what they're spending on R&D, so another way to look at it is "Tesla have GM and Fiat funding their R&D".
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  Tesla cars catch far less fire than their competitots's, EV or ICE. This has been debunked years ago, check your sources. As for credits making their profits, first it's like saying early Anazon could never turn profitable and second, just wait for the P/L report of this 2020Q2. You're in for a big surprise (my bet: profitable without counting credits amd even S/X sales!)
- SavantIdiot 5y ago
  I don't think you know what a pyramid scheme is. A pyramid scheme is a sales scheme where one person enlists other people to sell their goods because they take a % of the sales of the people below them, which encourages the people below them to hire people below THEM. It also requires a large up front purchase by new members, which is what causes those percentages to trickle upstream, amplifying what the person at the top of the pyramid gets based on how many layers are below. When people at the bottom begin to fail to sign up new members, each layer above them no longer finds it profitable, which causes the pyramid to eventually collapse. Tesla is in no way a pyramid scheme. It is, however, a groundbreaking luxury car brand that is disrupting the auto-sales collusion, opening up the possibility of fossil fuel use reduction, highly dependent on blood minerals, and run by an egomaniac tax cheat who doesn't give 2 shits about his employees. Tesla's impact is multi-faceted, both positive and negative, and highly nuanced.
vlovich123 5y ago
The multiples that Tesla trades at arguably are on the assumption that they’ll crack self-driving first combined with their dominance in absorbing a good chunk of the green credits that they resell to other companies. The former feels sufficiently far out that the multiple is irrational. The latter will start disappearing as competitors roll out their own EVs and government subsidies start disappearing.
- peter422 5y ago
  Tesla is the absolute world leader in battery manufacturing. A lot of people are betting on that as well. Tesla has a lot of things going for it if you project what we are going to need in the future. I’m not saying it is a good/bad investment but their entire car business could fade away and they could still be doing mega-business in other “green” business lines.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    I don't believe Tesla manufactures their own batteries at this point, electing to source them from other manufacturers like Panasonic. They, I believe, intend to start making their own at some point in the future.
  - cma 5y ago
    That was Panasonic, and for the China market they switched to the same pouch cells as everyone else.
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
      False. Tesla has never used pouch celles in the Chinese market.
      - SigmundA 5y ago
        Prismatic CATL's right? Closer to a pouch than cylindrical 21700's.

thinkingkong 5y ago

I think this is a good strategy if you look at the fundamentals. But the thing that's been making BTC work isn't the market or the technology, it's the behavior of other people. That's something that isn't taken into account in his list of justifications. People are behaving 'irrationally' and it's been working over and over again. It's created throngs of people who are believers and nothing will change their minds. BTC isn't going anywhere, despite my reservations about it's use as a tool for financial systems.

bawolff 5y ago
Its been what? 10 years? That's not a huge amount of time to conclude people will never change their mind and btc will go to the moon forever.
- anonporridge 5y ago
  Doesn't matter if bitcoin stalls out or even slowly bleeds out in price. There is a subset of true believers who will hold bitcoin in their portfolio's forever because they value the self sovereignty and globally accessible wealth it provides. Even the bulls believe that we'll eventually reach a steady state where hyper growth stops and it starts behaving more like gold, tracking inflation and economic growth.

maratc 5y ago

"The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." — John Maynard Keynes