3 ms·

anecdotal? Seattle has had 100F+ maybe a few times in the last century. Now we had 3 days in a row of 100F+ with today hitting 110F. It's not even funny. Portl

anecdotal? Seattle has had 100F+ maybe a few times in the last century. Now we had 3 days in a row of 100F+ with today hitting 110F. It's not even funny. Portland, OR has seen 115F. Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. Yes, this is totally cherry-picking.

throwawaysea 5y ago
That is exactly the definition of cherry picking. You’re claiming that one phenomenon is causally linked to a particular event. That evidence is not present in this article or your comment or anywhere else to my knowledge. Three days of high temperatures are all caused by the same single event, a southeasterly flow of air from the Cascades (https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/showtime-temperatures-are-surging-to.html https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/showtime-temperatures...) coinciding with other seasonal factors driving high temperatures to create a particular set of extreme conditions. So how are you able to prove that this is exclusively caused by climate change?
- rantwasp 5y ago
  Here. let me write this again: Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. 10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it. This is not cherry-picking Here. From the national weather service: 284 SXUS76 KSEW 290128 RERSEW RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE 628 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2021 ...RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY, JUNE AND ALL-TIME AS OF 6 PM... LOCATION TODAY RECORD / YEAR SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 91 2008* OLYMPIA 110 92 2008* QUILLAYUTE 110 92 1995 HOQUIAM 95 86 2008 BELLINGHAM 99 84 1995 NWS SEATTLE 107 89 2000 && LOCATION TODAY JUNE RECORD / DATE SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 27/2021 OLYMPIA 110 105 27/2021 QUILLAYUTE 110 92 24/2017* HOQUIAM 95 103 27/2021 BELLINGHAM 99 95 27/2021* NWS SEATTLE 107 101 27/2021 && LOCATION TODAY ALL-TIME RECORD / DATE SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 6/27/2021 OLYMPIA 110 105 6/27/2021 QUILLAYUTE 110 99 8/9/1981 HOQUIAM 95 103 6/27/2021 BELLINGHAM 99 96 7/29/2009 NWS SEATTLE 107 105 7/29/2009 * RECORDS SET ON MULTIPLE DATES; LATEST SHOWN
  - throwawaysea 5y ago
    That’s not statistical proof of causality. Again, how do you know this isn’t just a once in a thousand years event independent of climate change? > The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. There are numerous years, going back decades, with highs higher than the numbers you claim. See https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle/extreme-annual-seattle-high-temperature.php https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle...
    - rantwasp 5y ago
      what kind of statistical proof are you looking for? Can statistics ever proof causality? At what point do you draw the line? The numbers are not the numbers I claim. Those are the numbers the national weather service is reporting. I call BS on numerous years with numbers higher than I claim. The numbers recorded now are the highest on record since we started keeping track. Show me where else you see 110 for Seattle being recorded. Ever.
      - throwawaysea 5y ago
        > Can statistics ever proof causality? Yes, this is an entire field of study. It’s what spawned phrases like “statistical significance”. > I call BS on numerous years with numbers higher than I claim. You said in your two earlier comments, “The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year.” I shared evidence that Seattle regularly surpassed that level historically. You’re now moving the goal post by asking me to show a higher temperature than today. That question doesn’t matter since it still isn’t evidence that the record high is caused by climate change.
    - craftinator 5y ago
      I think you may have missed the only portion of their argument that wasn't cherry picking: "10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it." I would count this as a decently statistical argument, anecdotal as it is, because it's an economic observation, that if true, signals that the market is lagging behind some environmental change. Also, PDX did record 117F, by far the highest record in recorded history, by like 10F.
mynameisash 5y ago
> The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. When I moved to Seattle nine years ago, I was happy that we had only one week that would hit 80+. Annoying to have those hot days without AC, but whatever - it was much better than the Midwest. We'd do just fine for those few days. But it's been warming up. And while I wouldn't use this one week alone as evidence of a trend, the fact that it was >110°F today is wholly in-line (IMHO) of what we've been seeing. I read the other day that this is "a once in a millennium" event. How long until we have another such event? I'm guessing it'll be before my teenagers graduate from high school.

throwawaysea 5y ago

That is exactly the definition of cherry picking. You’re claiming that one phenomenon is causally linked to a particular event. That evidence is not present in this article or your comment or anywhere else to my knowledge. Three days of high temperatures are all caused by the same single event, a southeasterly flow of air from the Cascades (https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/showtime-temperatures-are-surging-to.html https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/showtime-temperatures...) coinciding with other seasonal factors driving high temperatures to create a particular set of extreme conditions. So how are you able to prove that this is exclusively caused by climate change?

rantwasp 5y ago
Here. let me write this again: Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. 10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it. This is not cherry-picking Here. From the national weather service: 284 SXUS76 KSEW 290128 RERSEW RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE 628 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2021 ...RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY, JUNE AND ALL-TIME AS OF 6 PM... LOCATION TODAY RECORD / YEAR SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 91 2008* OLYMPIA 110 92 2008* QUILLAYUTE 110 92 1995 HOQUIAM 95 86 2008 BELLINGHAM 99 84 1995 NWS SEATTLE 107 89 2000 && LOCATION TODAY JUNE RECORD / DATE SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 27/2021 OLYMPIA 110 105 27/2021 QUILLAYUTE 110 92 24/2017* HOQUIAM 95 103 27/2021 BELLINGHAM 99 95 27/2021* NWS SEATTLE 107 101 27/2021 && LOCATION TODAY ALL-TIME RECORD / DATE SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 6/27/2021 OLYMPIA 110 105 6/27/2021 QUILLAYUTE 110 99 8/9/1981 HOQUIAM 95 103 6/27/2021 BELLINGHAM 99 96 7/29/2009 NWS SEATTLE 107 105 7/29/2009 * RECORDS SET ON MULTIPLE DATES; LATEST SHOWN
- throwawaysea 5y ago
  That’s not statistical proof of causality. Again, how do you know this isn’t just a once in a thousand years event independent of climate change? > The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. There are numerous years, going back decades, with highs higher than the numbers you claim. See https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle/extreme-annual-seattle-high-temperature.php https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle...
  - rantwasp 5y ago
    what kind of statistical proof are you looking for? Can statistics ever proof causality? At what point do you draw the line? The numbers are not the numbers I claim. Those are the numbers the national weather service is reporting. I call BS on numerous years with numbers higher than I claim. The numbers recorded now are the highest on record since we started keeping track. Show me where else you see 110 for Seattle being recorded. Ever.
    - throwawaysea 5y ago
      > Can statistics ever proof causality? Yes, this is an entire field of study. It’s what spawned phrases like “statistical significance”. > I call BS on numerous years with numbers higher than I claim. You said in your two earlier comments, “The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year.” I shared evidence that Seattle regularly surpassed that level historically. You’re now moving the goal post by asking me to show a higher temperature than today. That question doesn’t matter since it still isn’t evidence that the record high is caused by climate change.
  - craftinator 5y ago
    I think you may have missed the only portion of their argument that wasn't cherry picking: "10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it." I would count this as a decently statistical argument, anecdotal as it is, because it's an economic observation, that if true, signals that the market is lagging behind some environmental change. Also, PDX did record 117F, by far the highest record in recorded history, by like 10F.

mynameisash 5y ago

> The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year. When I moved to Seattle nine years ago, I was happy that we had only one week that would hit 80+. Annoying to have those hot days without AC, but whatever - it was much better than the Midwest. We'd do just fine for those few days. But it's been warming up. And while I wouldn't use this one week alone as evidence of a trend, the fact that it was >110°F today is wholly in-line (IMHO) of what we've been seeing. I read the other day that this is "a once in a millennium" event. How long until we have another such event? I'm guessing it'll be before my teenagers graduate from high school.