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> the U.S.’s excess mortality in 2017 was greater than its excess mortality in 2020. Correct me if I'm missing something, but this comment is completely wrong.

> the U.S.’s excess mortality in 2017 was greater than its excess mortality in 2020. Correct me if I'm missing something, but this comment is completely wrong. The cited paper compares 2017 excess deaths in the US vs. similar aged populations in Europe. The "excess death rates" for 2020, as cited in the linked paper, is estimated COVID-19 death counts for the US (which isn't even what "excess deaths" is).

raphlinus 5y ago
You're not wrong. The original article is. The cited paper makes an apples-to-oranges comparison. The 2017 figure (~400k) is an estimate of excess deaths in the US compared to age-specific death rates of an average of five European countries. The 2020 number is the CDC estimate of coronavirus deaths (~375k). In any case, this is considerably smaller than the overall excess mortality (from the US baseline, not a comparison to Europe), which is estimated at 522k (and doesn't count the first two months of the year)[1]. In this comment, I only point out verifiable facts. People can come to their own conclusion about the extent to which the original article makes good faith or bad faith arguments based on citations to the literature. [1]: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778361 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778361