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> Wait, what? I don't know most of these answers. Neither do you. You're absolutely correct, but based on the weight of the evidence we have, we can find a mos
by joshuamorton 5y ago
> Wait, what? I don't know most of these answers. Neither do you.
You're absolutely correct, but based on the weight of the evidence we have, we can find a most likely explanation. You've previously stated that all explanations bare equally likely, but that's not true. Bayesian reasoning allows us to look at various pieces of evidence and priors and weigh them, even when all are individually of dubious use.
It's clear you don't want to answer any of those questions. They're simpler questions, my assumption here, again based on the weight of the evidence is that you're avoiding answering them because they demonstrate that Russia being responsible is the most likely answer.
As another user mentions, you're showing lots of examples of motivated reasoning, and that's unfortunate. Even more so that you're then projecting these accusations upon me. Hopefully your inability to engage with the substance of what I've presented will demonstrate that to any other readers.
> You're literally putting quotes around something I did not write.
Yes and, this is a valid rhetorical act when, for example suggesting the abstract idea one is discussing.
> The accusation was far stronger than that. The accusation was that the Russians, WikiLeaks and the Trump campaign colluded to get Trump elected in exchange for preferential treatment. The DNC hack was a small part of it. But no, there's no evidence of that small part, either.
That's not an accusation I made. Nor did any one else in this thread. And I'd agree that it is less likely than what I'm actually suggesting, which is that there wasn't collusion per say, but simply mutually beneficial actions. This is what is supported by the weight of the evidence and claimed in government reports, for example. That Russia hacked and leaked DNC data, to the benefit of the trump campaign and Russia itself, obviously. I'm unclear why you feel it necessary to inflate the accusations made to something less likely. This feels very motte-and-bailey, although I can't tell if it was intentional or a subconscious way to protect your preconception.