3 ms·

Other than it's decentralized, it doesn't do anything different. That's a huge difference though. It will just enable true ownership and "liquidity", the same t

Other than it's decentralized, it doesn't do anything different. That's a huge difference though. It will just enable true ownership and "liquidity", the same thing moving from the gold standard to fiat did. Liquidity, or increasing movement within the market did a lot of good. This conversation, and entire confusion around the utility of blockchains eerily reminds me of the now infamous challenge to Drew Houston that Dropbox was nothing more than a simple FTP with a share.[0] That's right, but also very wrong, missing the big picture. [0]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8863 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8863

echelon 5y ago
> It will just enable true ownership and "liquidity", the same thing moving from the gold standard to fiat did. Liquidity, or increasing movement within the market did a lot of good. You can do that with a central clearing house much easier. In fact, then you'd be covered by US and probably international law against theft. > This conversation, and entire confusion around the utility of blockchains eerily reminds me of the now infamous challenge to Drew Houston that Dropbox was nothing more than a simple FTP with a share. You don't know the future, and this is a cop out of an argument. I'd be willing to bet you $1000 that the crypto market fizzles out in ten years. That it's no bigger than the banks and classic institutions, and that it's no larger than 2x its present market cap on June 28th, 2021. Including any new entrants. I'd also and separately be willing to bet you $1000 that there's a cryptographic attack (quantum or not) that scares everyone away from crypto. (And I think the US and China already know this.) I'll define "everyone" as a loss of institutional support by at least ten major stakeholders worth over 1B USD. (I think it would be much broader, but I want to define a measurable metric.) Ten years - want to make that bet?
- saalweachter 5y ago
  > Ten years - want to make that bet? I mean, I'm a bear on ~everything crypto, but I no longer think it will go away just because it is stupid, useless or wasteful. I don't think it will reshape or replace anything, but I'd almost be shocked if it "fizzled out" in the next ten years. People are still paying good money for homeopathic remedies; you think they'll wise up about crypto any faster?
  - echelon 5y ago
    If there's a quantum attack, and I'm specifically betting that there will be, nobody will be able to prove what they own. The chain will die.
    - BuckRogers 5y ago
      Well you have a lot more to worry about in 10 years than blockchains getting hacked if you believe that. The world will never be ready for the scenario that you're predicting in <=10 years. If you truly believe that timeline enough to bet money on it, you damn well should be burying gold, stocking up on canned goods, digging a well, and amassing a stockpile of firearms today. No sarcasm.
- Karrot_Kream 5y ago
  > Ten years - want to make that bet? There's no need to do this with an HN poster. Crypto is a financial market. There's no end to puts you can buy if that's what you believe. Just buy some puts, and bet on the value of $COIN going down.
  - BuckRogers 5y ago
    Not only that, he tried forcing a position on me that I never stated in his bet. I countered with a real bet that does align with my views, but of course, it was all an act of microaggression. Not a person you can take seriously. As I received no response. I'm eager to drain that kid dry, and then publicly humiliate him in 10 years with a signed and sealed, notarized agreement.
- BuckRogers 5y ago
  You made me laugh. And, spicy. Well you know I would take your bet, unfortunately I think the crypto market will indeed be dead in 10 years, but for completely different reasons. You took my own position, you just didn't know it because you were too busy forcing a position on me. If you read what I wrote, I'm talking impact of blockchains here, not the market for tokens. All of the haters have the same talking points. So I will take a bet on crypto in 10 years that actually IS in accordance to my actual views. There will still be more than one cryptocurrency in widespread use (endorsed by nation-states or in wider usage) in the world by 2031. I'll call that bet up to $10,000 2021 USD, inflation-adjusted in the year 2031. I've added a way to reach me on my about profile. Reach out and I'll formalize a contract over for you to have notarized and return to me. A cousin of mine is a lawyer so it'll be air tight. Your second bet is even more vague and useless to haggle over, "scares everyone away", what does that mean, exactly. Too much wiggle room, I don't see a way to nail you down offhand, so I'm not interested in that one. I wasn't trying to "argue" with the Dropbox reference, I said it simply reminded me of that moment.. as I believe you couldn't be more blatantly and obviously wrong. Looking forward to taking your money as I have a child on the way that will need it by that point. I'll accept your payment in the cryptocurrency that you'll be using in 2031 as well.

echelon 5y ago

> It will just enable true ownership and "liquidity", the same thing moving from the gold standard to fiat did. Liquidity, or increasing movement within the market did a lot of good. You can do that with a central clearing house much easier. In fact, then you'd be covered by US and probably international law against theft. > This conversation, and entire confusion around the utility of blockchains eerily reminds me of the now infamous challenge to Drew Houston that Dropbox was nothing more than a simple FTP with a share. You don't know the future, and this is a cop out of an argument. I'd be willing to bet you $1000 that the crypto market fizzles out in ten years. That it's no bigger than the banks and classic institutions, and that it's no larger than 2x its present market cap on June 28th, 2021. Including any new entrants. I'd also and separately be willing to bet you $1000 that there's a cryptographic attack (quantum or not) that scares everyone away from crypto. (And I think the US and China already know this.) I'll define "everyone" as a loss of institutional support by at least ten major stakeholders worth over 1B USD. (I think it would be much broader, but I want to define a measurable metric.) Ten years - want to make that bet?

saalweachter 5y ago
> Ten years - want to make that bet? I mean, I'm a bear on ~everything crypto, but I no longer think it will go away just because it is stupid, useless or wasteful. I don't think it will reshape or replace anything, but I'd almost be shocked if it "fizzled out" in the next ten years. People are still paying good money for homeopathic remedies; you think they'll wise up about crypto any faster?
- echelon 5y ago
  If there's a quantum attack, and I'm specifically betting that there will be, nobody will be able to prove what they own. The chain will die.
  - BuckRogers 5y ago
    Well you have a lot more to worry about in 10 years than blockchains getting hacked if you believe that. The world will never be ready for the scenario that you're predicting in <=10 years. If you truly believe that timeline enough to bet money on it, you damn well should be burying gold, stocking up on canned goods, digging a well, and amassing a stockpile of firearms today. No sarcasm.
Karrot_Kream 5y ago
> Ten years - want to make that bet? There's no need to do this with an HN poster. Crypto is a financial market. There's no end to puts you can buy if that's what you believe. Just buy some puts, and bet on the value of $COIN going down.
- BuckRogers 5y ago
  Not only that, he tried forcing a position on me that I never stated in his bet. I countered with a real bet that does align with my views, but of course, it was all an act of microaggression. Not a person you can take seriously. As I received no response. I'm eager to drain that kid dry, and then publicly humiliate him in 10 years with a signed and sealed, notarized agreement.
BuckRogers 5y ago
You made me laugh. And, spicy. Well you know I would take your bet, unfortunately I think the crypto market will indeed be dead in 10 years, but for completely different reasons. You took my own position, you just didn't know it because you were too busy forcing a position on me. If you read what I wrote, I'm talking impact of blockchains here, not the market for tokens. All of the haters have the same talking points. So I will take a bet on crypto in 10 years that actually IS in accordance to my actual views. There will still be more than one cryptocurrency in widespread use (endorsed by nation-states or in wider usage) in the world by 2031. I'll call that bet up to $10,000 2021 USD, inflation-adjusted in the year 2031. I've added a way to reach me on my about profile. Reach out and I'll formalize a contract over for you to have notarized and return to me. A cousin of mine is a lawyer so it'll be air tight. Your second bet is even more vague and useless to haggle over, "scares everyone away", what does that mean, exactly. Too much wiggle room, I don't see a way to nail you down offhand, so I'm not interested in that one. I wasn't trying to "argue" with the Dropbox reference, I said it simply reminded me of that moment.. as I believe you couldn't be more blatantly and obviously wrong. Looking forward to taking your money as I have a child on the way that will need it by that point. I'll accept your payment in the cryptocurrency that you'll be using in 2031 as well.