3 ms·
Bitcoin mining is a poisson process [1] so you have to look at significant moving averages to estimate rate changes. So far looks like hashrate went from ~140E
by keymone 5y ago
Bitcoin mining is a poisson process [1] so you have to look at significant moving averages to estimate rate changes. So far looks like hashrate went from ~140E to ~90E, a 35% drop from peak.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_point_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_point_process
- j7ake 5y agoYour link only describes what is a poisson point process, but nothing about why bitcoin mining can be modeled as such a process. Have people analyzed the bitcoin mining data and how they fluctuate compared to different random processes?
- keymone 5y agobitcoin mining is poisson process by definition: mining difficulty is automatically adjusted such that new blocks appear at regular intervals. do you have any specific objection as to why bitcoin shouldn't be modeled in this way?
- j7ake 5y agoThe original Satoshi paper uses the Poisson distribution as an approximation to model the bitcoin mining process. The more appropriate model might be negative binomial, because you want to know how many successes you get until a specified number of failures occur. I don't doubt the Poisson distribution would model the data fairly well, but it's really hard to say that a real process is Poisson distributed by definition.