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I'm pretty sure a billionaire does not need to worry about being unbanked even in Mexico. There are many other types of assets he could hold that would bring as

by WJW 5y ago

I'm pretty sure a billionaire does not need to worry about being unbanked even in Mexico. There are many other types of assets he could hold that would bring as much inflation protection as bitcoins with a fraction of the volatility. Now obviously in his particular case he's done pretty well with his hodlings because the price went up so much, but that is not guaranteed to happen again in the future and may in fact reverse. As long as it stays so incredibly volatile, holding bitcoin should be regarded as speculation first and an inflation hedge second.

janandonly 5y ago
Name one asset (class) that does as well as Bitcoin. Gold? No, it's only back at its 2012 peak now. Bonds? I'm laughing.... or crying... Stocks ... Could be, but very risky... because if QE stops tomorrow the stock market will correct -60% or more...
- hellbannedguy 5y ago
  Cartel drug money. (Until Mexico gets a slight handle on systemic corruption in every aspect of that country; I have a hard time believing anything they claim about anything.)
- bellyfullofbac 5y ago
  Hah, love the delusion. Any mention of interest rate hikes and Bitcoin takes a dive too, because as far as I understand it, there's many borrowing cheap money (i.e. with low interest rate) to "invest" hoping to profit off the ponzi scheme.
  - celticninja 5y ago
    Do you have any sources for that?
  - zarzavat 5y ago
    Exactly how long does something have to hold its value for it to not be a "ponzi scheme?" Because I've been reading snide remarks about Ponzi schemes and tulip bubbles on HN since bitcoin was in the single figures.
    - Kbelicius 5y ago
      Madoff started his business in the early 60s and it operated until 2008. How long do you think something should hold its value til we can, with certainty, say that it is not a Ponzi scheme?
      - zarzavat 5y ago
        We can say with certainty that Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme because a Ponzi scheme requires fraud i.e wilful deception. Bitcoin is not perpetuating any deception, anybody can on the basis of freely available information learn about its risks and decide whether they want to buy it or not.
        Kbelicius 5y ago
        > We can say with certainty that Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme because a Ponzi scheme requires fraud i.e wilful deception. I agree with you but we can also say with certainty that economics of Bitcoin are identical to a Ponzi scheme. Earlier investors are payed with funds from more recent investors.
        helloworld11 5y ago
        No they're not. Earlier investors can benefit from the growth in price of their bitcoin holdings due to increased buying and price rises from new investors, who themselves hold exactly the bitcoin they bought with the risks fully known to anyone willing to do a minor bit of research. At any time, all owners of bitcoin actually have their own bitcoin and theoretically could sell their coins because they actually have them. (unless we're talking about cases like specific companies or exchanges in which clients are being fooled into thinking they own bitcoins that they don't actually own. However, even in this case, the fraud is with certain BTC ecosystem players, not BTC itself as a thing.) A ponzi scheme on the other hand literally transfers funds from new members to previous members in order to maintain an illusion of high returns, until the house of cards collapses as new members stop paying in at a rate that can sustain the illusion of returns through dishonest fund transfers. These are all very basic and easy to grasp distinctions. It's tiresome to see the parroting of "BTC is a ponzi scheme" by so many supposedly non-stupid people on HN. Opposition to a thing shouldn't justify obviously, idiotically sloppy reasoning.
  - janoside 5y ago
    https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-ponzi-scheme/ https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-ponzi-scheme/
- arcticbull 5y ago
  Doge. You know, the joke currency. Just wait till you see what happens to the price of crypto when Tether QE ends and 65% of all trading volume just pops out of existence. Gotta ask why are you worried that the stock market might correct 60% when Bitcoin did correct 65% this past month (65K to 28K peak to trough)?
  - errantmind 5y ago
    Going to need you to thoroughly substantiate Tether doing QE. I've looked into this and see nothing other than circumstantial evidence. That said, I fully expect Tether to implode in the next year or so.
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      Tether themselves said the coin is 3% backed by dollars, so it's 97% QE. The burden of proof isn't on me, it's on Tether. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof - they claim to have $60B of assets and to be the 7th largest player in the global commercial paper space, right behind Vanguard. They refuse to substantiate their claims with an audit. Not to mention they're 11 people on various non-extradition-treaty islands nobody in the commercial paper space has ever heard of. And Paolo appears to be doing interviews from his mom's basement.
      - nwiswell 5y ago
        Do you think USDC is also a fraud? They're eating into USDT's market share at an alarming rate... If USDT is really insolvent, the collapse should happen pretty soon.
        WalterSear 5y ago
        They have also been avoiding audits.
        arcticbull 5y ago
        Personally, I have always held USDC in high regard. Their attestations (not audits, which they have also never done) are now roughly 3 months late and they have recently changed their wording from being 1:1 backed by dollars to being backed by various approved investments. [1] It was right at the time they made these changes that growth went parabolic. I'm also suspicious that right as the crypto downturn hit they suddenly went out to raise $440M - something I wouldn't expect a stablecoin with billions in the bank to need to do. [2] However, personally I would assign them a risk score of 3/10 ("Hmmm") as compared to Tether's 11/10 ("Oh sweet mercy") - a sentiment echoed by the Fed [3]. IMO there's a few things propping up USDT, including multi-stablecoin liquidity pools doing automatic arbitrage against other stablecoins. [1] https://www.centre.io/usdc-transparency https://www.centre.io/usdc-transparency [2] https://www.coindesk.com/usdc-builder-circle-raises-440m https://www.coindesk.com/usdc-builder-circle-raises-440m [3] https://www.coindesk.com/us-fed-official-calls-tether-a-challenge-to-financial-stability https://www.coindesk.com/us-fed-official-calls-tether-a-chal...

by WJW 5y ago

janandonly 5y ago

Name one asset (class) that does as well as Bitcoin. Gold? No, it's only back at its 2012 peak now. Bonds? I'm laughing.... or crying... Stocks ... Could be, but very risky... because if QE stops tomorrow the stock market will correct -60% or more...

hellbannedguy 5y ago
Cartel drug money. (Until Mexico gets a slight handle on systemic corruption in every aspect of that country; I have a hard time believing anything they claim about anything.)
bellyfullofbac 5y ago
Hah, love the delusion. Any mention of interest rate hikes and Bitcoin takes a dive too, because as far as I understand it, there's many borrowing cheap money (i.e. with low interest rate) to "invest" hoping to profit off the ponzi scheme.
- celticninja 5y ago
  Do you have any sources for that?
- zarzavat 5y ago
  Exactly how long does something have to hold its value for it to not be a "ponzi scheme?" Because I've been reading snide remarks about Ponzi schemes and tulip bubbles on HN since bitcoin was in the single figures.
  - Kbelicius 5y ago
    Madoff started his business in the early 60s and it operated until 2008. How long do you think something should hold its value til we can, with certainty, say that it is not a Ponzi scheme?
    - zarzavat 5y ago
      We can say with certainty that Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme because a Ponzi scheme requires fraud i.e wilful deception. Bitcoin is not perpetuating any deception, anybody can on the basis of freely available information learn about its risks and decide whether they want to buy it or not.
      - Kbelicius 5y ago
        > We can say with certainty that Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme because a Ponzi scheme requires fraud i.e wilful deception. I agree with you but we can also say with certainty that economics of Bitcoin are identical to a Ponzi scheme. Earlier investors are payed with funds from more recent investors.
        helloworld11 5y ago
        No they're not. Earlier investors can benefit from the growth in price of their bitcoin holdings due to increased buying and price rises from new investors, who themselves hold exactly the bitcoin they bought with the risks fully known to anyone willing to do a minor bit of research. At any time, all owners of bitcoin actually have their own bitcoin and theoretically could sell their coins because they actually have them. (unless we're talking about cases like specific companies or exchanges in which clients are being fooled into thinking they own bitcoins that they don't actually own. However, even in this case, the fraud is with certain BTC ecosystem players, not BTC itself as a thing.) A ponzi scheme on the other hand literally transfers funds from new members to previous members in order to maintain an illusion of high returns, until the house of cards collapses as new members stop paying in at a rate that can sustain the illusion of returns through dishonest fund transfers. These are all very basic and easy to grasp distinctions. It's tiresome to see the parroting of "BTC is a ponzi scheme" by so many supposedly non-stupid people on HN. Opposition to a thing shouldn't justify obviously, idiotically sloppy reasoning.
- janoside 5y ago
  https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-ponzi-scheme/ https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-ponzi-scheme/
arcticbull 5y ago
Doge. You know, the joke currency. Just wait till you see what happens to the price of crypto when Tether QE ends and 65% of all trading volume just pops out of existence. Gotta ask why are you worried that the stock market might correct 60% when Bitcoin did correct 65% this past month (65K to 28K peak to trough)?
- errantmind 5y ago
  Going to need you to thoroughly substantiate Tether doing QE. I've looked into this and see nothing other than circumstantial evidence. That said, I fully expect Tether to implode in the next year or so.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    Tether themselves said the coin is 3% backed by dollars, so it's 97% QE. The burden of proof isn't on me, it's on Tether. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof - they claim to have $60B of assets and to be the 7th largest player in the global commercial paper space, right behind Vanguard. They refuse to substantiate their claims with an audit. Not to mention they're 11 people on various non-extradition-treaty islands nobody in the commercial paper space has ever heard of. And Paolo appears to be doing interviews from his mom's basement.
    - nwiswell 5y ago
      Do you think USDC is also a fraud? They're eating into USDT's market share at an alarming rate... If USDT is really insolvent, the collapse should happen pretty soon.
      - WalterSear 5y ago
        They have also been avoiding audits.
      - arcticbull 5y ago
        Personally, I have always held USDC in high regard. Their attestations (not audits, which they have also never done) are now roughly 3 months late and they have recently changed their wording from being 1:1 backed by dollars to being backed by various approved investments. [1] It was right at the time they made these changes that growth went parabolic. I'm also suspicious that right as the crypto downturn hit they suddenly went out to raise $440M - something I wouldn't expect a stablecoin with billions in the bank to need to do. [2] However, personally I would assign them a risk score of 3/10 ("Hmmm") as compared to Tether's 11/10 ("Oh sweet mercy") - a sentiment echoed by the Fed [3]. IMO there's a few things propping up USDT, including multi-stablecoin liquidity pools doing automatic arbitrage against other stablecoins. [1] https://www.centre.io/usdc-transparency https://www.centre.io/usdc-transparency [2] https://www.coindesk.com/usdc-builder-circle-raises-440m https://www.coindesk.com/usdc-builder-circle-raises-440m [3] https://www.coindesk.com/us-fed-official-calls-tether-a-challenge-to-financial-stability https://www.coindesk.com/us-fed-official-calls-tether-a-chal...