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Jobs That (Probably) Won’t Be Automated

4 points by danboarder 5y ago

donkarma 5y ago
Most jobs that aren't manual labour won't be automated for a while, I feel like AI is going nowhere
- danboarder 5y ago
  I've played with GPT-3 and I can see it capable of competent content generation already. So there are definitely developments happening, I would say it is going somewhere and faster than many think.
jjk166 5y ago
Jobs don't get automated, tasks get automated. You'll never see a hospital with no humans working in it, but moving patients around, cleaning and sterilization of equipment, patient info processing, analysis of test results, and even diagnosis are among the many tasks that can be automated. You'll never get a full education without ever seeing a human teacher, but we already live in the day and age where a single instructor can teach thousands of students at a time. Standardized tests were probably the first form of automation any of us personally experienced, and it's not hard to see low hanging fruit that allows for improvement. There will always be artists, but a lot of what those artists do to pay the bills is automatable. Robo-articles are already a thing, and many things like corporate music are similarly ripe targets. Similarly the tools for artists become steadily more powerful - animations, for example, that would have taken an army just a few years ago can now be made by a single individual. You need a human face for social work, but there's a lot more to it than just empathy. Whether it is keeping track of paperwork or combing through old documents, technology can allow fewer workers to do more. Similarly, law is overwhelmingly clerical work. For every hour litigating or meeting with clients, there are many hours spent reviewing case law and processing documents, both tasks well suited to automation. There have never been more tools for supervisors and similar middle management positions. Tracking KPIs and scheduling are very automatable. Combined with reduced reliance on labor, where once you needed a large bureaucracy to run a place, now a single individual per shift might be sufficient. I don't think I need to say anything on this site about the abundance of tools for IT automation. The degree to which automation will affect you depends on what fraction of your time is spent doing automatable tasks. If only 10% of your tasks are automatable, odds are you'll see little change. If 90% of your tasks are automatable, you better hope you're in the top 10% of your field. The idea that your job can't be automated because one thing you spend 20 minutes a week doing is better done by a human is a fantasy.
- perl4ever 5y ago
  Programming was automated in 1950-something, when the first compiler was developed and engineers (actual engineers) could start writing their own programs. The software industry as we know it is a hoax.

4 points by danboarder 5y ago

donkarma 5y ago

Most jobs that aren't manual labour won't be automated for a while, I feel like AI is going nowhere

danboarder 5y ago
I've played with GPT-3 and I can see it capable of competent content generation already. So there are definitely developments happening, I would say it is going somewhere and faster than many think.

jjk166 5y ago

Jobs don't get automated, tasks get automated. You'll never see a hospital with no humans working in it, but moving patients around, cleaning and sterilization of equipment, patient info processing, analysis of test results, and even diagnosis are among the many tasks that can be automated. You'll never get a full education without ever seeing a human teacher, but we already live in the day and age where a single instructor can teach thousands of students at a time. Standardized tests were probably the first form of automation any of us personally experienced, and it's not hard to see low hanging fruit that allows for improvement. There will always be artists, but a lot of what those artists do to pay the bills is automatable. Robo-articles are already a thing, and many things like corporate music are similarly ripe targets. Similarly the tools for artists become steadily more powerful - animations, for example, that would have taken an army just a few years ago can now be made by a single individual. You need a human face for social work, but there's a lot more to it than just empathy. Whether it is keeping track of paperwork or combing through old documents, technology can allow fewer workers to do more. Similarly, law is overwhelmingly clerical work. For every hour litigating or meeting with clients, there are many hours spent reviewing case law and processing documents, both tasks well suited to automation. There have never been more tools for supervisors and similar middle management positions. Tracking KPIs and scheduling are very automatable. Combined with reduced reliance on labor, where once you needed a large bureaucracy to run a place, now a single individual per shift might be sufficient. I don't think I need to say anything on this site about the abundance of tools for IT automation. The degree to which automation will affect you depends on what fraction of your time is spent doing automatable tasks. If only 10% of your tasks are automatable, odds are you'll see little change. If 90% of your tasks are automatable, you better hope you're in the top 10% of your field. The idea that your job can't be automated because one thing you spend 20 minutes a week doing is better done by a human is a fantasy.

perl4ever 5y ago
Programming was automated in 1950-something, when the first compiler was developed and engineers (actual engineers) could start writing their own programs. The software industry as we know it is a hoax.