Try to build mental models without becoming attached to them. When your predictions are not accurate, try to update it based on the actual outcome. If you're an

Try to build mental models without becoming attached to them. When your predictions are not accurate, try to update it based on the actual outcome. If you're any good at this then you'll get more accurate over time when exposed to the same kinds of situations. I'm not sure this needs explaining though - most real people don't make decisions based on data most of the time. We make decisions based on experience, received knowledge (eg advice) or gut instinct. Where most people fall down (I would say) is not letting go of failed models.