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i wish this was a demand and supply thing but I am really afraid this is going to turn out to be inflation. And it’s actually all the prices that are going up -
by rantwasp 5y ago
i wish this was a demand and supply thing but I am really afraid this is going to turn out to be inflation. And it’s actually all the prices that are going up - we’re just talking about wood because we have a good narrative around it.
- treis 5y agoLumber prices have tripled for dimensional lumber. It's clearly a short term supply/demand thing and not an inflation thing.
- rantwasp 5y agowhy not both? IMHO inflation is real and it's going to bite us hard
- lazide 5y agoWhat people consider ‘bad’ inflation is too much money/demand chasing constrained supply that can’t keep up. If it is a required/needed good, that causes people to raise the amount they are willing to spend to get what they need. Inflationary spirals happen when this ‘infects’ enough markets. Everyone is spending all their money chasing an ever harder to get/more expensive set of essentials, and are willing to spend more and more as time goes on as they get more desperate. Lumber is probably negotiable/non-essential enough it’s not likely to kick off an inflationary spiral. Food, rent, transportation, though tend to be key.
- rantwasp 5y agolumber is used in construction. no construction? less housing. less housing? more rent.
- lazide 5y agoPlenty of alternatives though if it gets too expensive - brick, block, steel + stucco, etc. Lumber is important, and it’s cheap - but there is a cap until there are ready and economical alternatives.
- Robotbeat 5y ago10 to 20% would be really high inflation but we’re talking about like 200 or 300% wood prices. Nah, even if we happen to have higher inflation than any other year in the last century, lumber prices will still fall a lot.