You are failing to think rationally about probabilities in part because you attach to an idea like "burden of proof" which reduces to the discussion to somethin

You are failing to think rationally about probabilities in part because you attach to an idea like "burden of proof" which reduces to the discussion to something like "You can't prove to my satisfaction that it is aliens so I'll assume it's not." That's just ignoring the argument I've made above. It's also not correct to say that there's never solid evidence. The DNI report suggests there is compelling evidence. I've not seen anything to suggest that the observed phenomenon are at the limits of our sensors.