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I generally agree with you (minus the rage) and agree re: being vaccinated at this point means it's pretty much over for individuals and their associates who ar

I generally agree with you (minus the rage) and agree re: being vaccinated at this point means it's pretty much over for individuals and their associates who are also vaccinated. The only quibble I take is that, while it's likely you (and by proxy, the experts you cite) are correct that we won't go back to square one, it is still a (low) possibility. Probably low enough that it isn't worth concerning yourself with, except to be aware that the possibility is there. And probably slightly higher than the normal chance of a random breakout until we get closer to vaccinated herd immunity worldwide. But I'm not suggesting it should necessarily change any significant behavior of those vaccinated, just something to pay a bit more attention to than normal and be ready to take action if needed (i.e. don't throw away all the masks just yet). And that said, I really appreciate you including sources and I'm sorry I don't have any handy to back up my statement, but it does come from reading and listening to experts. That said, it's my recollection and summary of that so I'd encourage anyone to take it with that grain of salt.

lamontcg 5y ago
> it is still a (low) possibility. It really isn't. An escape mutation which completely evaded T-cells would write a whole new chapter in immunology. It on par with worrying about a jet engine falling on my head right now. There's risks that are low enough that they aren't worth worrying about or particularly acknowledging.
- LocalPCGuy 5y ago
  From what I've read, the possibility is higher than some other random virus popping up at this moment in time. That's all I'm saying. That could be on par with the jet engine example, but if so, then all the people saying we need to learn from Covid and adjust our immunology strategies are worrying about low possibility items also. Anyways, I'll defer to you on this, I'm definitely not an expert, and you were willing to post sources and I'm not gonna try to dredge up the information I'm basing these comments on. Plus I haven't had the time to digest the sources. So add one more chink in my wall of being back to "normalcy" :P
  - lamontcg 5y ago
    > From what I've read, the possibility is higher than some other random virus popping up at this moment in time. I've read literally nothing credible that suggests that immune escape will ever be complete. There are people who are "concerned" or "worried" about it or will argue that "we can't say" But they're basically the same people who were arguing that the vacccines that we were producing that produced strong neutralizing titers might not work. Or that vaccinated people might transmit the virus just as strongly as unvaccinated superspreaders, even though they have reduced symptoms and lower viral loads and we know that the household attack rate of fully asymptomatic disease is lower by nearly an order of magnitude. The "well, we haven't proven it can't, so we have to assume the coronavirus could assemble and detonate a nuclear warhead in an American city" people have been solidly fucking wrong for the past 12 months. They had a brief glimpse of correctness at the start of it all when people thought it would go away relatively quietly like SARS-1 + MERS. But those people were probably all the ones looking at the early ~20% case fatality rate and assuming that 20% of the coworkers were going to die. And it isn't happening, and the messaging is horrible, and there's a cost to worrying about the literal worst case imaginable. It doesn't make you smart to consider literally all the possibilities, it gets in the way.
    - manwe150 5y ago
      Someone get this guy a snickers bar.
    - noduerme 5y ago
      Your logic seems fairly sound as far as the future trajectory of covid-19, if history is a guide. What I've been wondering and I'd put to you is, do you think the T-cell response to the mRNA vaccines / infection will also confer immunity or decrease the severity of MERS? Or other more distantly related wild coronaviruses?
      - Vecr 5y ago
        MERS is not a Sarbecovirus, it's a Merbecovirus, so not the same subgenus. They are not similar enough for much to happen, if anything at all.

lamontcg 5y ago

> it is still a (low) possibility. It really isn't. An escape mutation which completely evaded T-cells would write a whole new chapter in immunology. It on par with worrying about a jet engine falling on my head right now. There's risks that are low enough that they aren't worth worrying about or particularly acknowledging.

LocalPCGuy 5y ago
From what I've read, the possibility is higher than some other random virus popping up at this moment in time. That's all I'm saying. That could be on par with the jet engine example, but if so, then all the people saying we need to learn from Covid and adjust our immunology strategies are worrying about low possibility items also. Anyways, I'll defer to you on this, I'm definitely not an expert, and you were willing to post sources and I'm not gonna try to dredge up the information I'm basing these comments on. Plus I haven't had the time to digest the sources. So add one more chink in my wall of being back to "normalcy" :P
- lamontcg 5y ago
  > From what I've read, the possibility is higher than some other random virus popping up at this moment in time. I've read literally nothing credible that suggests that immune escape will ever be complete. There are people who are "concerned" or "worried" about it or will argue that "we can't say" But they're basically the same people who were arguing that the vacccines that we were producing that produced strong neutralizing titers might not work. Or that vaccinated people might transmit the virus just as strongly as unvaccinated superspreaders, even though they have reduced symptoms and lower viral loads and we know that the household attack rate of fully asymptomatic disease is lower by nearly an order of magnitude. The "well, we haven't proven it can't, so we have to assume the coronavirus could assemble and detonate a nuclear warhead in an American city" people have been solidly fucking wrong for the past 12 months. They had a brief glimpse of correctness at the start of it all when people thought it would go away relatively quietly like SARS-1 + MERS. But those people were probably all the ones looking at the early ~20% case fatality rate and assuming that 20% of the coworkers were going to die. And it isn't happening, and the messaging is horrible, and there's a cost to worrying about the literal worst case imaginable. It doesn't make you smart to consider literally all the possibilities, it gets in the way.
  - manwe150 5y ago
    Someone get this guy a snickers bar.
  - noduerme 5y ago
    Your logic seems fairly sound as far as the future trajectory of covid-19, if history is a guide. What I've been wondering and I'd put to you is, do you think the T-cell response to the mRNA vaccines / infection will also confer immunity or decrease the severity of MERS? Or other more distantly related wild coronaviruses?
    - Vecr 5y ago
      MERS is not a Sarbecovirus, it's a Merbecovirus, so not the same subgenus. They are not similar enough for much to happen, if anything at all.