4 ms·

> Should it though? Fuck no. I'm really tired of these stories. (this is all directed at the author that put that "it should make us worry" quote in the NYT

> Should it though? Fuck no. I'm really tired of these stories. (this is all directed at the author that put that "it should make us worry" quote in the NYT piece, not at any HN poster, but I really need to vent) The 1918 pandemic turned into seasonal influenza one we had enough herd immunity, enough people had T-cells that recognized H1N1 and the virus was forced into making sacrificial choices in order to spread. This virus will not achieve an escape mutation that puts us back to square one with vaccinated or recovered people at the same risk everyone was at in 2019. If you look at what happened in 2009 the H1 envelope protein of that virus traces its lineage back to the 1918 pandemic, it spent 50 years mutating in pigs before it jumped back to humans (that is a LOT of generations of fucking "variants") and people who were born and exposed to pre-1957 H1N1 when it was endemic to the human race had cross reactive T-cells which protected them. They still got infected, but the disease burden was vastly lower so that pandemic fizzled: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21653752/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21653752/ The human immune system isn't a binary on/off switch, and while circulating neutralizing antibodies are the gold standard of immunity they are far from the entire story. If you want to read an article supporting the idea that the coronavirus will transition to milder endemicity without all the irritated swearing read this: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741 And everyone can fuck off in advance about the idea that ADE will happen. If it was going to happen it would have already happened and this isn't Dengue: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/12/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-the-coronavirus-vaccines https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/12/an... All the fucking headlines about how 99% of the people who are dying now are unvaccinated are screaming out that there's no fucking ADE anywhere to be found. People still talking about ADE need to see a psychiatrist to deal with their addiction to doom and gloom. This pandemic is ending. I'm 2 months post vaccination and everyone I'm in close contact with is vaccinated, so its pretty much entirely over for me. Now I need a fucking snickers bar.

noduerme 5y ago
"If you look at what happened in 2019 the H1 envelope protein..." was that date a typo?
- lamontcg 5y ago
  Yeah I used 2019 the paragraph before and had a mental bit flipping mistake.
LocalPCGuy 5y ago
I generally agree with you (minus the rage) and agree re: being vaccinated at this point means it's pretty much over for individuals and their associates who are also vaccinated. The only quibble I take is that, while it's likely you (and by proxy, the experts you cite) are correct that we won't go back to square one, it is still a (low) possibility. Probably low enough that it isn't worth concerning yourself with, except to be aware that the possibility is there. And probably slightly higher than the normal chance of a random breakout until we get closer to vaccinated herd immunity worldwide. But I'm not suggesting it should necessarily change any significant behavior of those vaccinated, just something to pay a bit more attention to than normal and be ready to take action if needed (i.e. don't throw away all the masks just yet). And that said, I really appreciate you including sources and I'm sorry I don't have any handy to back up my statement, but it does come from reading and listening to experts. That said, it's my recollection and summary of that so I'd encourage anyone to take it with that grain of salt.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  > it is still a (low) possibility. It really isn't. An escape mutation which completely evaded T-cells would write a whole new chapter in immunology. It on par with worrying about a jet engine falling on my head right now. There's risks that are low enough that they aren't worth worrying about or particularly acknowledging.
  - LocalPCGuy 5y ago
    From what I've read, the possibility is higher than some other random virus popping up at this moment in time. That's all I'm saying. That could be on par with the jet engine example, but if so, then all the people saying we need to learn from Covid and adjust our immunology strategies are worrying about low possibility items also. Anyways, I'll defer to you on this, I'm definitely not an expert, and you were willing to post sources and I'm not gonna try to dredge up the information I'm basing these comments on. Plus I haven't had the time to digest the sources. So add one more chink in my wall of being back to "normalcy" :P
    - 5y ago

noduerme 5y ago

"If you look at what happened in 2019 the H1 envelope protein..." was that date a typo?

lamontcg 5y ago
Yeah I used 2019 the paragraph before and had a mental bit flipping mistake.

LocalPCGuy 5y ago

I generally agree with you (minus the rage) and agree re: being vaccinated at this point means it's pretty much over for individuals and their associates who are also vaccinated. The only quibble I take is that, while it's likely you (and by proxy, the experts you cite) are correct that we won't go back to square one, it is still a (low) possibility. Probably low enough that it isn't worth concerning yourself with, except to be aware that the possibility is there. And probably slightly higher than the normal chance of a random breakout until we get closer to vaccinated herd immunity worldwide. But I'm not suggesting it should necessarily change any significant behavior of those vaccinated, just something to pay a bit more attention to than normal and be ready to take action if needed (i.e. don't throw away all the masks just yet). And that said, I really appreciate you including sources and I'm sorry I don't have any handy to back up my statement, but it does come from reading and listening to experts. That said, it's my recollection and summary of that so I'd encourage anyone to take it with that grain of salt.

lamontcg 5y ago
> it is still a (low) possibility. It really isn't. An escape mutation which completely evaded T-cells would write a whole new chapter in immunology. It on par with worrying about a jet engine falling on my head right now. There's risks that are low enough that they aren't worth worrying about or particularly acknowledging.
- LocalPCGuy 5y ago
  From what I've read, the possibility is higher than some other random virus popping up at this moment in time. That's all I'm saying. That could be on par with the jet engine example, but if so, then all the people saying we need to learn from Covid and adjust our immunology strategies are worrying about low possibility items also. Anyways, I'll defer to you on this, I'm definitely not an expert, and you were willing to post sources and I'm not gonna try to dredge up the information I'm basing these comments on. Plus I haven't had the time to digest the sources. So add one more chink in my wall of being back to "normalcy" :P
  - 5y ago